1. Unit 5 University of Sunderland CSEM04 ROSCO Unit 5: Making the Case - Considering the Options CSEM04: Risk and Opportunities of Systems Change in Organisations Prof. Helen M Edwards

2. Unit 5 University of Sunderland CSEM04 ROSCO Overview What’re the options? Example modelling approaches –Risk Analysis Graph –Financial modelling: DCF, NPV & Sensitivity Analysis –9 boxes: problem and solution spaces

3. Unit 5 University of Sunderland CSEM04 ROSCO What’re the options? For any systems change project –always more than one possible option/solution –How to evaluate different options? –How to weigh up risks/opportunities? Can use techniques such as –Riskit Analysis Graphs –Simple Financial modelling and Sensitivity Analysis –9 boxes: problem and solution spaces.

4. Unit 5 University of Sunderland CSEM04 ROSCO Risk Analysis Graph (example from Kontio, J (1997) The Riskit Method for Software Risk Management. Version 1.00. CS-TR-3782. Computer Science Technical Reports. University of Maryland. College Park, Maryland.)

5. Unit 5 University of Sunderland CSEM04 ROSCO Financial modelling: DCF, NPV & Sensitivity Analysis YearAnnual benefits One-timeOn goingNet cash flow PV 042500059800027000-200000 142500027000398000368518.52 2 NPV value t for the formula recurring annual benefits cash flow = benefits – total costs PV = Present Value. Equal to cash flow in year 0, decreases thereafter

6. Unit 5 University of Sunderland CSEM04 ROSCO 9 boxes: problem and solution spaces PastPresentFuture Super- system System Sub- system PastPresentFuture Super- system System Sub- system Problem SpaceSolution Space

7. Unit 5 University of Sunderland CSEM04 ROSCO 9 boxes: example From Mann, D (2001) System Operator Tutorial Part 1: 9-Windows On The World. TRIZ journal, www.triz-journal.com.