1. Further development of the G20- GEO-GLAM Initiative Chris Justice GEO AG-07-03 Task Co-Lead University of Maryland Sept 22 2011

2. Underlying Assumptions Full and open exchange of timely data and information about crop status, crop yield forecasts and food-commodity supply predictions can lower uncertainty and increase the transparency of global food supply. The enhanced understanding of and timely information on global production will contribute to reduced price volatility by allowing local, national and international operators to make decisions and anticipate market trends with reduced uncertainty. The ultimate goal of GEOGLAM is to help develop and share more timely, accurate, objective and reliable estimates of crop condition, area and yield as an input to improved early warning of food shortages. We recognize that as the program evolves the initial focus of the program on croplands could be expanded to take a broader perspective of agricultural monitoring (e.g. rangelands, assessment of climate change impacts etc)

3. GEO-GLAM Components Four components are envisioned for GEO-GLAM: 1.Improving Global Agricultural Monitoring Systems with a focus on : a) Large Producer/Exporter Countries and b) Countries at Risk 2Enhancing National and Regional Capacity for Agricultural Monitoring and the timely dissemination of monitoring results 3Improving availability, access to, timeliness and use of EO data for agricultural monitoring (Satellite, In-situ and EO parameterized Models) 4Undertaking innovative Research and Development in support of Operational Monitoring Systems

4. GEO-GLAM Components Coordinated Satellite and In- Situ Earth Observations Strengthening National Capacity for Agricultural Monitoring Earth Observations Satellite / Ground Data / Models Operational Research and Development Techniques/Methods/Best Practices Improved Reporting and Information and Timely Dissemination Systems Condition/Area/ Yield / Statistics FAO STAT AMIS Public MONITORING SYSTEM OF SYSTEMS Meteorological Expertise and Info Agricultural Expertise (GEO CoP+) Enhancing Global Agricultural Monitoring Systems 1 Monitoring Countries and Regions at Risk (EWS) 2 3 Govts

5. Irrigated and Rainfed Crop lands

7. Improving Global Agricultural Monitoring Systems For Major Producer/Exporter * Countries – Better input data: cropland area, crop type area – Improved seasonal forecasting – Improved area estimates – Better rainfall, soil moisture, crop condition info – Improved area estimation – Improved crop growth models – More timely and improved yield forecasts – Timely dissemination, traceability and transparency of information * Focus on major crops – Corn, Wheat, Soybean, Rice

8. 25 Countries producing over 80% of world crops

9. Improving Global Agricultural Monitoring Systems For Countries at Risk (TBD) – Improved rainfall and soil moisture information – Improved information on crop condition – Timely access to satellite and ground observations – Near real-time monitoring of disasters (drought, flooding, pests) – Improved field reporting and vulnerability mapping (including current socio- economic conditions)

10. 22 Countries in protracted food crisis 0 5 15 25 35 50 100 Percent of Population by Country with insufficient Food

11. Enhancing National Capacity for Agricultural Monitoring For priority targeted * countries (TBD) and – Up-to-date cropland area mapping – Robust area frame sampling design – Improved rainfall estimation and soil moisture conditions – Improved estimation of area planted – Crop type and condition monitoring – Improved yield estimation – The timely and transparent dissemination of monitoring results and statistics For interested national entities - capacity building by request * e.g. countries with poor reporting system and countries with larger year-to-year fluctuation in cropped area and/or production – feasibility,

12. Improving availability, access to, timeliness and use of EO data for agricultural monitoring Satellite observations ( working with CEOS and Private Industry) – Examples of coordination activities Coordinated International Moderate Resolution acquisition strategy Coordinated International Fine-resolution sampling strategy Coordinated global network of Geostationary sensing systems – Examples of improved products and services Global crop type mapping Timely global information on crop condition Improved rainfall, soil moisture, reservoir height data Improved Near Real-Time data access Improved Inter-use of multi-source data Standardization of pre-processing and products Free and open data policies for GEO-GLAM data

14. Improving availability, access to, timeliness and use of EO data for agricultural monitoring Ground Information – Improved distribution of rainfall data collection and improved data access Expanded rain gauge network in sub-saharan Africa especially focusing on countries at risk – Robust area- frame sample designs – Improved availability and distribution of field information on Area planted + yield (statistics year n-1), Fertilizers and Inputs NRT network on crop condition, diseases and pest

15. Improving availability, access to, timeliness and use of EO data for agricultural monitoring EO-Driven Models: improved: – seasonal and weather forecasting for agricultural areas – models of evapo-transpiration and water availability – yield estimation models (inc. EO parameters) – use of EO in Agrometeo Models, – EO indicators/predictors

16. Research and Development in support of Operational Monitoring Systems Examples of potential User Driven ‘operational’ R and D activities: – Improved satellite retrievals of Soil Moisture and ET (inc. JECAM) – Improved drought indices and alerts – Production Acreage and Yield (PAY) Reporting inter- comparison – Yield model inter-comparisons (inc. JECAM) – Improved global cropland data layer (New GEO Ag Task Initiative) – Inter-comparison of EO driven yield models (inc. JECAM) – Increased use of Geospatial and Information Technologies e.g. Data dissemination systems Mobile phone (in situ) data collection and dissemination pilot

17. GEO-GLAM Phased Implementation Initial Planning Phase (June 2011 to June 2012) – Further Development of the GEO-GLAM Initiative Form an initial GEOGLAM Coordination Group Web site posting of expanded project document for review and comment GEO 8 Plenary, Istanbul CRAM 3 Workshop, Nairobi Asia Pacific Space Agency Forum, Singapore – Finalized Program Document (end of January 2012): Phase 1 Implementation Plan Overall Governance Approach – Regional outreach to engage a larger community in the initial implementation: S. America JECAM Workshop, Buenos Aires MARS at 20 Workshop (Europe) Rio +20 Summit Others? – March – June 2012 Develop Funding

18. Phased Implementation Initial Planning Phase (June 2011-2012) Phase 1 (2012-2015) Focus on: i)Coordination of Earth Observations ii)Cereal Crops for Major Producer/Exporter Countries iii)Agricultural food supply for Countries at Risk, iv)National Capacity Building for monitoring primary national crops Phase 2 (2015-2020) Expanding program focus e.g. to include Rangeland Productivity Monitoring, Climate Change Adaptation

19. Suggested GEOGLAM Organization GEOGLAM Advisory Board including G20 Donor Representation and Program Stakeholders Executive Committee consisting of Implementation Team Leads and Partners Global Systems Enhancement Implementation Team consisting of task leads National Capacity Building Implementation Team consisting of task leads Earth Observation Implementation Team consisting of task leads Operational R&D Implementation Team consisting of task leads Executive Director and Secretariat Projects

20. Advisory Board – Stakeholder Program Steering and Donor Coordination Executive Director and Secretariat – Program coordination, fund raising and management, program reporting and outreach Executive Committee – Coordination across Implementation Teams – Reporting to and discussion with the Advisory Board on progress and future developments – Coordination with AMIS and other Partner programs Implementation Teams – representation from the individual project/ activities Projects w. Project Leads – projects contributing to meeting the GEOGLAM goals Organization and Roles

21. Thank you