1. Air Quality Forecasting Bas Mijling Ronald van der A AMFIC Annual Meeting ● Beijing 16-17 ● October 2008

2. AMFIC Work Package 5 5.1Implementation of a chemical transport model on a 0.25 degree resolution 5.2Model improvements, especially the incorporation of aerosols in the model 5.3A better emission database will be incorporated in the model. If possible, this database will be improved based on retrieval- model comparisons 5.4Implementation of an operational chemical weather forecast service

3. Overview 1.Implementation Chimere model 2.Results and validation 3.Satellites, model, and Olympic Games 4.Future steps

4. 1 Implementation Chimere model

5. Processes taken into account evening noon morning VOC NOx VOC NOx VOC Deposition Winds limit layer FREE TROPOSPHERE 100 m Temperature 2000 m Winds altitude MIXING LAYER hv Inversion

6. Overview Chimere output CHIMERE ECMWF meteo MELCHIOR scheme 44 species 120 reactions INTEX-B 2006 inventory GLGC database 1 x 1 km² emissions monthly averages gas phase: LMDZ-INCA2 aerosol: GOCART boundary conditions end field of previous simulation initial field landuse chemistry Resolution 0.25 x 0.25 degree 8 horizontal layers Hourly concentrations of 44 gases and aerosols

7. Domain of Chimere

8. INTEX-B Emissions by Qiang Zhang and David Streets

9. Shifted emission profile Europe (GMT+2) China (GMT+8)

10. Emission comparison INTEX-B 2006 East Asia, 0.5×0.5 degree Sectors (4)pollutants Power Industry Residential Transportation NOx SOx CO VOC (30) PM10 PM2.5 BC OC EMEP 1990-2004 Europe, 50×50 km Sectors (11)pollutants Combustion in energy and transform. ind. Non-industrial combustion plants Combustion in manufacturing industry Production processes Extraction/distribution of fossil fuels Solvent and other product use Road transport Other mobile sources and machinery Waste treatment and disposal Agriculture NOx SOx CO NH3 NMVOC PM10 PM2.5 POPs (8) Heavy metals (5)

11. Meteo Forecast Timeline Using ECMWF’s 144h forecast at 12:00 UTC makes a 5-day forecast possible 

12. Use of Chimere Results Forecast of air quality in China for large urban areas –www.amfic.eu/bulletin Air quality forecast during Olympic Games –www.knmi.nl/beijing2008 Background values for street level model CERC –www.beijingairquality.cn/ Background values for regional model VITO –www.vito.be/amfic

13. www.amfic.eu/bulletin

14. Implementation Summary Chimere operationally implemented for China –Resolution 0.25° × 0.25° –Daily 5-day forecast and analysis Model output daily published on internet –And further processed by CERC and VITO To do: More realistic implementation of emission database

15. 2 Results and Validation

16. Validation Sources Ground measurements Beijing Daily mean 12 pm-12pm of 27 stations Surface concentration NO 2, SO 2, PM 10 http://bjepb.gov.cn/air2008/ olympic.aspx Shanghai Daily mean 12 pm-12pm of n stations Surface concentration NO 2, SO 2, PM 10 http://www.envir.online.sh.cn/ airnews/index.asp Hong Kong Hourly data for 14 stations Surface concentration NO 2, SO 2, O 3, CO, PM 10 http://www.epd-asg.gov.hk/ english/24pollu/ pc_24station.php Satellite measurements OMI Daily at local overpass time 13:30h Tropospheric NO 2 column http://www.temis.nl GOME-2 Daily at local overpass time 09:30h Tropospheric NO 2 column http://www.temis.nl

17. Diurnal variation Measurements (W.-x. Wang et al., 2008 Air Qual Atmos Health) Chimere (0.5° × 0.5°; meteo bug) Measured August 7 to September 30, 2007 at Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciences

18. Diurnal variation Measurements (W.-x. Wang et al., 2008 Air Qual Atmos Health) Chimere (0.25° × 0.25°)

19. Comparison with Beijing Preliminary!

20. Comparison with Hong Kong (daytime) Preliminary!

21. Measurements by BBC Olympic Games http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/in_pictures/7506925.stm

22. PM 10 in Shenyang after rain

24. Forecasts Beijing for Thu 10 July Sun 6 July Mon 7 JulyTue 8 July Wed 9 JulyThu 10 JulyFri 11 July (analysis)

25. 3 Satellites, Model and Olympic Games

26. Air Quality Effect by NASA http://aura.gsfc.nasa.gov/science/china.html

27. Cumulated Rain in Beijing 11-30 June 2008Pre Olympic 21 July – 7 August 2008Start of AQ measures 38-24 August 2008Olympic Games 425 Aug – 5 Sep 2008Between Olympics 55-17 September 2008Paralympics 618-30 SeptemberPost Olympic

28. Satellite validation tropospheric NO 2 Lots of cloudy pixels during Olympic period Use of averaging kernel A of retrieval necessary Selection criteria satellite retrievals: –Distance < 50 km –Cloud fraction < 50% –Cloud pressure < 800 hPa Interpolate model profiles to time and footprint Now compare N trop,sat with N trop,AK = A x trop,model

29. CHIMERE vs GOME-2  09:30

30. CHIMERE vs OMI  13:30

31. 4 Future Steps

32. Improvements of model –Boundary layer –Aerosols –… Improvement of emissions –Adjusting to 2008/2009 levels –Using satellite data –Better diurnal cycle by sector –Higher resolution (VITO) –… Future Steps

33. Desaggregation of emissions Original INTEX-B (0.5x0.5) Desaggregated by VITO to AMFIC grid (0.25x0.25)

34. Growth NO 2 above China 2003 SCIAMACHY, tropospheric NO 2, annual mean 2006

35. Conflicting NO 2 Trends? Source: Beijing Organizing Committee for the Games of the XXIX Olympiad; W.-x. Wang et al., 2008

36. NO 2 Trends OMI 2004-2008 Courtesy Jennifer Hains

37. Conclusions Chimere model is successfully implemented Daily operational forecasts are available on website http://www.amfic.eu/bulletin Results validate well, but only limited ground sources available Beijing AQ measures can be observed from space Model and emissions are to be improved

38. Thank you!

39. API Beijing 2005 95-100

40. API Beijing 2006 95-100

41. API Beijing 2007 95-100