1. Modeling of Urban Expansion of Greater Hyderabad Metropolitan Region in India – Scenarios for 2030

2. Objectives Development of a spatially explicit urbanization model - based on socio-economic & topographical characteristics. Model the spread of urbanization in a fast growing city like Hyderabad Based on current infrastructure Based on existing Land use Based on population distribution Based on economy Objectives 1.Development of a spatially explicit urbanization model based on socio-economic & topographical characteristics. 2.Model the spread of urbanization in a fast growing city like Hyderabad, a.Based on current infrastructure b.Based on new roads planned c.Development of high density transport corridors.

3. Scope Model is based on AGENT LUC (‘Anthropogenically Engineered Transformations of Land Use and Land Cover’ ) Captures urban process Simulates the changes in urban land use patterns. The major outcomes are urban land use and population growth.

4. Statistical Model GDP estimates Population Model Migration Model Aggregate growth

5. Spatial Model Land use and Land Cover model Physical infrastructure Resource availability Soil characteristics Elevation Land use changes Population distribution

6. Behavioral Model Intra urbanRural to rural Rural to urban Perception about wealth Social infrastructure

7. AGENT LUC Model Macroscopic Statistical model (Economy, population etc) Spatial Model (Land use, population Distribution etc) Behavioral model (Perception of wealth and well being) GIS based Land Use Model and Analysis

8. Factors Driving Urbanization Population Natural growth Migration Economy Service sector – pull Rural economy - push Infrastructure Attracting force Limiting force Land use Perception && Policy

9. Hyderabad Rapid growth in population – almost 30% increase from 2001 Capital of Andhra Pradesh - state was predominantly agri based IT exports - Rs 22 crore in 1995 >> Rs 20000 crore now

10. Scenarios of Simulation GDP SRES A1SRES B2 Population Growth Rate National population Growth rate of India Scenario 1Scenario 2 UN Projected growth Rate for Hyderabad Urban Agglomeration Scenario 3Scenario 4

11. Comparison - 2005 Scenario 1 Scenario 4Scenario 3 Scenario 2 High GDP Moderate Population growth High GDP Lower GDP High Population growth Lower GDP

12. Comparison - 2030 Scenario 1 High GDP Moderate Population growth Scenario 2 Lower GDP Moderate Population growth High Population growth High GDP Scenario 3 Scenario 4 Lower GDP High Population growth

13. Validation *Population in Millions Area in Sq KM Year Populat ion as per Census CEISIN Estimate for populati on Scenario1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3Scenario 4 PopulationAreaPopulationAreaPopulationAreaPopulationArea 1995NA15.7415.11 541 15.26 523 15.11 518 15.26 537 2000-0116.62NA15.75 615 16.16 566 15.75 565 16.16 583 2005NA17.3816.39 694 16.84 647 16.39 613 16.84 650 Urban area in 2005 was 714 sq km (source NRSC)

14. Population Comparison

16. Conclusion The temporal outcome of this research provides policy makers with scenarios that can be employed in effective planning of infrastructure. The land use in Urban areas changes with changes in GDP and infrastructure.

17. Future Work Simulate the effect of Mass transport corridors like Metro rail on Urban land use and Population Distribution Sharing short-medium-long term action plan with appropriate government departments Expanding the above model using Urban modeling to fast growing cities like Hyderabad.