1. Smoke from open fires in Equatorial Asia affects one of the most densely populated regions in the world Fire emissions in color (June-November 2006) Cities with population over 1 million people Tg C

2. Sumatra fires of June 2013: smoke transport to Singapore Fire observations from satellite, June 20-29 Smoke in Singapore, June 20 Smoke transport simulated by the GEOS-Chem atmospheric model using satellite fire data Smoke concentration in surface air Patrick Kim, Harvard

3. We use surface and satellite observations of smoke to test the model September 2006 September 2007 September 2008 September 2009 MODIS satellite aerosol optical depth (smoke) Shannon Koplitz, Harvard Surface data in Singapore (2006) Observed Model

4. Fires and surface winds in Equatorial Asia Particulate Fire Emissions 2004-2010 (kg)Particulate Fire Emissions 2006 (kg) September 2006 Fire emissions

5. Singapore Kuala Lumpur Medan Palembang Jakarta Makassar Sensitivity of smoke concentrations in large cities to fire emissions in different upwind regions calculated with the adjoint of the GEOS-Chem atmospheric model (Jun-Nov 2006) 0.1 1 10 100 1000 (arbitrary units) Patrick Kim, Harvard

6. The fire regions that matter most for air quality in Singapore also affect Indonesia Fires weighted by population exposure to smoke (GEOS-Chem adjoint, Jun-Nov 2006) Singapore population All Equatorial Asia population

7. Tg C Headlines: “RNI to develop 100,000 ha of oil palm plantation” in South Sumatra (4/9/12, AgroAsia) Cargill “aggressively looking for new areas in Sulawesi, Central Kalimantan, and South Sumatra” (3/22/13, WSJ) Plan … “to establish a 30,000-hectare palm-oil plantation in Davao Oriental” (6/5/13, BusinessMirror) Planned Expansion of Palm Oil Plantations Land use clearing to make way for palm oil plays a large role in the regional fires and is expected to continue in the future Aceh (45,000 ha) Kalimantan (20,000 ha) Papua New Guinea (105,000 ha) Mindanao (100,000 ha) Sumatra (121,600 ha)

8. Business-as-usual scenario for future Sumatra land use would be disastrous for Singapore ba Highest emissions in peat areas directly upwind of Singapore Forest cover fraction (2030) Fire emissions (2009-2030) Miriam Marlier, Columbia

9. An integrated policy tool for cost-benefit analysis of land-use choices Policy options Land use, Land cover Fire Emissions Smoke Concentrations Public Health Costs Bioeconometric model Land model GEOS-Chem adjoint Epidemiological model