1. Deciding the Course of Action The Kepner-Tregoe Approach
Paul Morris
CIS144

2. Situation Analysis (Where are we?)
Problem
Analysis
Past
What is
the fault?
Decision
Analysis
Present
How to correct
the fault?
Potential
Problem Analysis
Future
How to prevent
future faults?
Learn Cause
Make Decision
Plan Success

3. “You think you have problems”
Timing
How urgent is the problem?
Is a deadline involved?
What will happen if nothing is done for a while?

4. “You think you have problems”
Trend
What is the problem potential for growth?

5. “You think you have problems”
Impact
How serious is the problem
What are the effects on the people, the product, the organization, and its policies?
“Trouble at the Bakery”

6. “You know it’s a really bad day when…

7. “You think you have problems”
“First Day on the Job…Trial by Fire” problem

8. Pareto Analysis and Diagram
This method shows the relative importance of each individual problem to the other problems in the situation.
This analysis draws its name from the Pareto Principle (80% of the trouble comes from 20% of the problems)
Vital few concerns vs. the trivial many

9. Toasty O’s Product Problem
A. Inferior printing on boxes (smeared/blurred)
10,000
B. Overfilling boxes (too much weight)
30,000
C. Boxes damaged during shipping
2,000
D. Inner wrapper not sealed (stale)
25,000
E. No prize in box
50,000

10. Toasty O’s Boxes Analysis

11. Toasty O’s Product Problem
A. Inferior printing on boxes (smeared/blurred)
$100
B. Overfilling boxes (too much weight)
$6,000
C. Boxes damaged during shipping
$7,000
D. Inner wrapper not sealed (stale)
$87,500
E. No prize in box
$17,500

12. Boxes vs. Lost Revenue

13. K.T. Problem Analysis and Troubleshooting
The basic premise of KT PA is that there is always something that distinguishes what the problem IS from what it IS NOT.
Fear of Flying Problem

14. Decision Analysis
Prepare a decision statement with both an action and a result component
Establish strategic requirements (Musts), operational objectives (Wants), and restraints (Limits)
Rank objectives and assign relative weights
Generate alternatives

15. Decision Analysis
Assign a relative score for each alternative on an objective-by-objective basis
Calculate weighted score for each alternative and identify top two or three
List adverse consequences for each top alternative and evaluate probability and severity
Make a final single choice

16. Example of Decision Analysis
Our company is looking for a new site for construction of a branch office.
We have determined our MUSTs and several other factors to consider
Two sites have been brought to our attention.

17. General Factors for Our Example
Weight 1
Developable >= 25acres
“Must” 2
Favorable physical site attrib. 6 3
Competitive location costs 7 4
Access to quality/trainable workforce 8 5
Quality transportation access 10
Capacity & flexibility of utility services
Regional air quality designations

18. Comparative Analysis Site A Site B Factor Wt. Facts Score Wt. Score
Favorable phy. site 6
Great size & config 10 60
Poor config & soil 4 24
Competitive costs 7
Low Land dev. $ 8 56
High Land dev. $ 42
Access to qual. workforce
Dense Pop; many compare ind. 9 72
Adeq. Pop; high unemplyment 64
Quality trans. access
30 miles to
I-5 with good access 70
Right on Freeway; good access 90
Utility services 5
All systems meet req. 35 40
Air Quality
Near non-attainment 32
80 miles to non-attainment
Total
325
324