1. Aim high with the goal in mind

3. Exp 2 Exp 3 Exp 1Largest response:

5. AGCM better able to capture trend AGCM better able to capture trend Here, AGCM (in forecast mode) is therefore a better representation of reality Here, AGCM (in forecast mode) is therefore a better representation of reality Should thus give better predictions of rainfall over South Africa than CGCM Should thus give better predictions of rainfall over South Africa than CGCM NCEP vs AGCM = 0.4581 NCEP vs CGCM = 0.3775

6. Model output statistics (MOS) applied to AGCM ensemble mean SLP CGCM ensemble mean SLP Verification 5-year-out cross-validation Spearman rank correlation AGCM-MOS slp – CGCM-MOS slp Only about 5% of the stations show local significant correlation differences at the 95% level Forecast skill not significantly different irrespective of the use of “correct” or “incorrect” SLP forecasts