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Forest health in the drying climate of southwest Western Australia Niels Brouwers, T. Lyons, G. Hardy n.brouwers@murdoch.edu.au
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Climate change in Australia Climate change in southwest Western Australia (SWWA) Forest declines in SWWA Eucalyptus wandoo decline study Overview
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Temperature change
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Rainfall change
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Southwest of Western Australia
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Temperature changes in SWWA
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Rainfall changes in SWWA
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Forest declines in SWWA
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Eucalyptus gomphocephala (tuart) decline
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Eucalyptus wandoo (wandoo) decline
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Eucalyptus wandoo decline study Objectives Hypotheses Methods Results Discussion
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Objective To investigate the relationship between changes in wandoo health and climate related variables
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Hypotheses Declines in health are related to: – Decreasing rainfall – Decreasing soil moisture availability – Increasing temperatures
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Methods Surveys across the geographical distribution of wandoo were carried out in 2002 and 2008 Crown health was estimated at 123 sites Bureau of Meteorology data and modelled soil moisture 1 were used in the analyses 1 Raupach MR, PR Briggs, V Haverd, EA King, M Paget, CM Trudinger (2008a), Australian Water Availability Project (AWAP). CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research Component: Final Report for Phase 3..
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Results & Discussion Declines in health are related to: – Decreasing rainfall Indirectly – Decreasing soil moisture availability Indirectly – Increasing temperatures Yes
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Adjusted R-squared: 0.138, F-statistic: 20.54 on 1 and 121 DF, p-value: 1.384e-05
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Adjusted R-squared: 0.01231, F-statistic: 2.52 on 1 and 121 DF, p-value: 0.115
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Adjusted R-squared: 0.1205, F-statistic: 17.72 on 1 and 121 DF, p-value: 4.947e-05
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Adjusted R-squared: 0.1506, F-statistic: 22.63 on 1 and 121 DF, p-value: 5.488e-06
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Adjusted R-squared: 0.6629, F-statistic: 240.9 on 1 and 121 DF, p-value: < 2.2e-16
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Conclusion All together this study indicates that the negative trend in wandoo health is (at least partially) driven by the changes in climate that the southwest of Western Australia has been experiencing over the last 15-30 years.
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Thank you for your attention Contact: n.brouwers@murdoch.edu.au Website: http://www.foresthealth.com.au/
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