1. Recent hydrological and climatological changes V. Barros

2. http://www.claris-eu.org/ FLOODS 1. CHARACTERIZATION

3. Flood of 2007 autumn 15/02 to 15/05

4. Mosaic of imagens of peak flows of the Paraná River in 1998. In blue, the flooded area and in light blue the permanent water area

5. http://www.claris-eu.org/

6. C CONCLUSION IN LARGE SCALE FLOODS (MONTH OR MORE ) Two types GREAT RIVER FLOODS MEDIUM SCALE RIVER AND PLAIN FLOODS º

7. http://www.claris-eu.org/ WP9 - FLOODS 2 FLOODS FROM MEDIUM SCALE RIVERS AND IN PLAINS

8. http://www.claris-eu.org/ WP9 - FLOODS

9. http://www.claris-eu.org/ WP9 – SOIL MOISTURE

10. http://www.claris-eu.org/ WP9 – SOIL MOISTURE

11. http://www.claris-eu.org/ WP9 - FLOODS 3. FLOODS FROM GREAT RIVERS

12. SAURRAL 2010, J. HYDROMETEOROLOGY http://www.claris-eu.org/ ARE SOME HYDROLOGICAL MODELS CAPABLE OF SIMULATING PRESENT AND EVENTUALLY FUTURE DISCHARGES AND THEIR EXTREMES?

13. http://www.claris-eu.org/ CONCLUSION DISTRIBUTED HYDROLOGICAL MODELS ARE ABLE TO REPRODUCE MEAN ANNUAL AND MONTHLY DISCHARGES With some error in the Paraguay River YET NEED TO ADJUST THE MODEL AT DAILY SCALE

14. http://www.claris-eu.org/ SINCE DISTRIBUTED HYDROLOGICAL MODELS PROVIDE DISCHARGE FLOWS AND NOT LEVELS CAN LEVELS OF FLOOD BE DETERMINED BY STREAMFLOWS ?

15. Maximum daily height of the month as a function of the mean monthly flow in Paso de lo Libres

16. Maximum daily height of the month in the Paraná River in Reconquista as a function of the mean monthly flow in Corrientes 1990-1999. Only for months that are part of a sequence of 3 with flows over 30000 m3/s

17. http://www.claris-eu.org/ WP9 - FLOODS C CONCLUSION FLOOD INDICATORS CAN BE CALCULATED FROM RIVER DISCHARGES

18. THERE WAS A CHANGE? http://www.claris-eu.org/

19. Monthly Discharges over average + 3 σ

21. Climate change impact on flooding Maximum Flow - Gumbel http://www.claris-eu.org/

22. WP9 - FLOODS C CONCLUSION THERE WAS A CHANGE NEW RETURN CALCULATIONS SHOULD CONSIDER THE NEW CONDITIONS (at least until more certain scenarios will be developed) RESULT (Stakeholders)

23. http://www.claris-eu.org/ ARE INCREASING STREAMFLOWS INFLUENCED BY LAND USE CHANGE OR BY CLIMATE OR BY BOTH?

24. http://www.claris-eu.org/ DOYLE Y BARROS, INT J. CLIMATOLOGY 2010 http://www.claris-eu.org/

26. CONSISTENT WITH SAURRAL ET AL 2008 GRL

27. http://www.claris-eu.org/ WP9 - FLOODS C CONCLUSION 4 RUN OFF CHANGE WAS CAUSED BY BOTH IN THE NORTH BY LAND USE CHANGE IN THE SOUTH BY CLIMATE IN THE MIDDLE BY BOTH NOW LOOKING ON THE EFFECT ON FLOODS

28. Annual rainfall linear trends in mm/year. Period 1960–1999. Shaded area, significant at the 95% level CLIMATE AND STREAMFLOWS

29. Annual precipitation linear trends in mm/year during a) El Niño, b) La Niña and c) Neutral phases. Period 1960–1999 V. R. Barros, M. E. Doyle, I. A. Camilloni 2008 a) b) c)

30. Mean squared leading SLP factor loadings, warm semester

31. Linear correlation coefficients between rainfall and leading SLP factor loadings (FL2) for the warm semester: Significant areas at a 95% level are shaded.