1. Summary Report of Working Group on Impacts Project ABC Science Team Meeting April 5, 2005 UNEP-Tongji Institute, Shanghai

2. Outline Issues: what are the most important impacts of ABCs, and the most important research needs related to them? Proposed workshop on impact studies Integrating capacity building with research

3. Issues ABCs have impacts on: 1.Agriculture 2.Health 3.Water 4.Unmanaged ecosystems Cross-cutting issues: Historical analysis vs. projections Regional coupled models

4. Agriculture Highest priority for research supported by Project ABC –Draw on strengths and interests of Project ABC science team: impacts of ABCs on climate, dry deposition, etc. –Impact of ABCs on monsoon (hence, on agriculture) is a new and unique issue –Opportunity to build on team’s experience while entering into new research areas E.g., collect integrated meteorological/agricultural/ socioeconomic data (precedent: biofuels survey)

5. Agriculture (continued) Initial study sites: 1.Ganges basin 2.Yangtze basin Why these? –Much research to build on –Access to data (though some question marks) Should locate field sites near existing weather stations –Climatic and socioeconomic conditions vary, yet more manageable than entire countries –Because river basins, natural unit for looking at water issues, too

6. Water Closely connected to agriculture, but did not discuss in depth in the working group Growing competition between agriculture and other sectors –Drying due to ABCs intensifies scarcity and thus conflict How easily can populations/land uses change location, and what are adjustment costs?

7. Health Impacts of aerosols on human health are obviously important But: other groups already working on, though maybe not as much as should Contributions of Project ABC: –Better emissions inventories for epidemiologists/dispersion modelers to work with –Regional models: provide better estimates of pollution levels than “local” models

8. Unmanaged ecosystems Forests, wetlands, grasslands, oceans, … Potentially large impacts, but not as well understood as in case of agriculture –Products (commercial and subsistence), ecosystem services, tourism, etc. –Especially important for some Project ABC countries (e.g., Maldives) With some, data collection a challenge –Collecting radiation measurements in forests (though being done at some sites in China)

9. Historical analysis vs. Projections Advantages of latter: –More convincing to policy community (more “real”: talking about impacts that have already occurred, vs. speculative ones that might occur in distant future) –Before can forecast, need to validate models against historical data –Roots the agricultural and socioeconomic research in observations instead of assumed parameters and simulation methods

10. Regional coupled models Pertinent for impact studies: provide finer spatial resolution But: newer and not as well tested as global models (though efforts underway) Project ABC could look at: –How do estimates of impacts vary among models? –What features should models have to make them more useful for impact studies? E.g., date of onset and length of monsoon

11. Miscellaneous Links among issues important: e.g., agriculture and health –If ABCs harm agriculture, then malnutrition is more likely Biomass burning: fires used for clearing fields Impacts depend on institutions and policies (restrictions on land use)

12. Getting started Workshop later in 2005 Commission papers from individuals –Review pertinent literature –Investigate issues of data access –Offer suggestions on studies to be done 8 (?) papers: –Agriculture, water, health: 1 each for China, India –Also papers on oceans, forests

13. Capacity building Principle: should not be broadcast or add- on, but rather an integral component of research Successful models: APN, International START, SANDEE/EEPSEA Possibilities, in addition to learning that occurs through collaboration: –Short courses (for research team) –Fellowships (S S, N S)