1. OThree Chemistry MM5/CAMx Model Diagnostic and Sensitivity Analysis Results: Continued Diagnostics and PA Central California Ozone Study: Bi-Weekly Presentation 6 T. W. Tesche Dennis McNally Harvey Jeffries 16 January 2004

2. OThree Chemistry Overview of Presentation  Recently Completed Analyses  Analyses Underway  Evaluation of the ARB Jul-Aug ’00 Episode  Analysis of Ole x 3 and (Ole+Aro) x 3 Sensitivity Runs  Process Analysis Update on Various Episodes

3. OThree Chemistry Recently Completed Analyses  Completed processing of aircraft VOC canisters from CCOS database for Sept ’00 episode.  Ran Flying Data Grabber (FDG) for Interim Base Case (Base B) and Bv3 (VOC emissions scaled by factor of 3) runs.  Performed CAMx simulations of 16-20 Sept ’00 Episode for:  Triple aromatics and olefins (TOL, XYL, ALD2, OLE): Run Brv3  Triple aeromatics (TOL, XYL): Run Bav3  Area source emissions split between Levels 1 and 2: Run B-403es  Ran FDG Aircraft VOC analysis for Brv3 and Bav3.  Performed CAMx (v4.03) simulation and full performance evaluation (including aircraft) of ARB Jul-Aug ’00 Episode

4. OThree Chemistry MM5 Analyses Underway  Began new MM5 (ver 6.4) simulation with Noah LSM, updated FDDA aloft, and NOAA revised input files.

5. OThree Chemistry CAMx Analyses Underway  Sensitivity run with ARB diffusivity scheme(s)  Simulation and Evaluation of BAAQMD Jul-Aug ’00 Episode  Simulation with updated CALMET/MM5 simulation for Sept ’00 Episode (ARB-supplied meteorology)  Sensitivity run with ICs/BCs/TCs derived from GEOS-CHEM global simulation  Sensitivity run examining alternative diurnal/spatial PBL height and diffusivity profile estimates

6. OThree Chemistry PA Analyses Underway  Alpine Sept ’00 Episode  Extraction files for Bv3 (all VOCs x 3), Brv3 (olefins and aeromatics x 3), and Bav3 (aeromatics x 3) developed and sent to OThree Chemistry for analysis  ARB Sept ’00 Episode  Awaiting updated CAMx simulation with CALMET/MM5 meteorology  Will re-run and and process extraction files to send to OThree Chemistry  ARB Jul-Aug ’00 Episode  Extraction files developed and sent to OThree Chemistry for analysis  BAAQMD Jul-Aug ’00 Episode  CAMx run by ENVIRON; AG obtained output and performed extraction  Extraction files developed and send to OThree Chemistry for analysis  Development of PA User’s Guide and Tutorial using Houston and CCOS case studies as examples (under separate funding)

7. OThree Chemistry Other Efforts  Awaiting BAAQMD Jul-Aug ’00 episode base case results to compare with ARB episode  Built Kv profile spreadsheets to inter-compare diffusivity treatments for three CCOS simulations and to facilitate Process Analysis investigations:  AG Sept ’00  ARB Jul-Aug ’00  BAAQMD Jul-Aug ‘00  Mechanism established for distributing alpha/beta versions of OThree/UT Process Analysis software and CAMx host code

8. OThree Chemistry CAMx MPE with Jul-Aug ’00 ARB Episode

9. OThree Chemistry Maximum Predicted and Observed Ozone

10. OThree Chemistry Peak Accuracy over All Stations

11. OThree Chemistry Normalized Bias

12. OThree Chemistry Normalized Gross Error

13. OThree Chemistry CAMx (ver 4.03) Base Case vs. VOC x 3

14. OThree Chemistry CAMx (Ole + Aro x 3) vs. (Aro v 3)

15. OThree Chemistry Peak Accuracy over All Stations

16. OThree Chemistry Normalized Bias

17. OThree Chemistry Normalized Gross Error

18. OThree Chemistry Next Steps  Review of VOC speciation methods in CCOS modeling inventory– who best positioned to do this?  Analyze CAMx model output from various runs made in last two weeks  Analyze PA results from CAMx runs made recently for Sept ’00 (B, Bv3, Ba3, Br3), Aug-Sept (ARB, BAAQMD)