1. Chapter 12 Management of Economic Exposure Management 3460 Institutions and Practices in International Finance Fall 2003 Greg Flanagan

2. November 18, 2003 2 Chapter Objectives The student will be able to: list and explain three types of exchange risk exposure. calculate a measure of economic exposure. discuss the determinants of operating exposure. explain pass-trough pricing and what determines its effectiveness. explain the methods for managing economic exposure. Discuss alternative methods of hedging economic exposure.

3. November 18, 2003 3 Economic Exposure – the extent to which the value of the firm would be affected by unanticipated changes in exchange rates. Transaction Exposure – the sensitivity of “realized” domestic currency values of the firm’s contractual cash flows denominated in foreign currencies to unexpected exchange rate changes. (Chapter 13) Translation Exposure – the potential that the firm’s consolidated financial statements can be affected by changes in exchange rates. (Chapter 14) Three Types of Exposure

4. November 18, 2003 4 Economic Exposure Exchange rate risk as applied to the firm’s competitive position. Any anticipated changes in the exchange rates would have been already discounted and reflected in the firm’s value. Economic exposure can be defined as the extent to which the value of the firm would be affected by unanticipated changes in exchange rates.

5. November 18, 2003 5 Transaction Exposure Defined as the sensitivity of “realized” home currency values of the firm’s contractual cash flows denominated in foreign currencies to unexpected exchange rate changes. Transaction exposure arises from fixed-price contracting in a world of constantly changing exchange rates.

6. November 18, 2003 6 Translation Exposure Exchange rate risk as applied to the firm’s consolidated financial statements. Consolidation involves translation of subsidiaries’ financial statements from local currencies to home currency. Involves many controversial issues.

7. November 18, 2003 7 How to Measure Economic Exposure Economic exposure is the sensitivity of the future home currency value of the firm’s assets and liabilities and the firm’s operating cash flow to random changes in exchange rates. There exist statistical measurements of sensitivity. Sensitivity of the future home currency values of the firm’s assets and liabilities to random changes in exchange rates. Sensitivity of the firm’s operating cash flows to random changes in exchange rates.

8. November 18, 2003 8 Operating exposure Channels of Economic Exposure Firm Value Home currency value of assets and liabilities Future operating cash flows Exchange rate fluctuations Asset exposure

9. November 18, 2003 9 How to Measure Economic Exposure a regression on the (home) dollar value (P) of foreign assets on the dollar exchange rate, i.e. S($/£), the regression would be of the form: P = a + b×S + e Where: a is the regression constant e is the random error term with mean zero. b is the regression coefficient and measures the sensitivity of the dollar value of the assets (P) to the exchange rate, S.

10. November 18, 2003 10 How to Measure Economic Exposure The exposure coefficient, b, is defined as follows: Where Cov(P,S) is the covariance between the dollar value of the asset and the exchange rate, and Var(S) is the variance of the exchange rate. Cov(P,S) Var(S) b =

11. November 18, 2003 11 How to Measure Economic Exposure The exposure coefficient shows that there are two sources of economic exposure: Cov(P,S) Var(S) b = 1.the variance of the exchange rate and 2.the covariance between the dollar value of the asset and exchange rate

12. November 18, 2003 12 Example Suppose a U.S. firm has an asset in Britain whose local currency price is random. For simplicity, suppose there are only three states of the world and each state is equally likely to occur. The future local currency price of this British asset (P*) as well as the future exchange rate (S) will be determined, depending on the realized state of the world.

13. November 18, 2003 13 Example (continued) StateProbabilityP*SS×P* Case 1 11/3£980$1.40/£$1,372 21/3£1,000$1.50/£$1,500 31/3£1,070$1.60/£$1,712 Case 2 11/3£1,000$1.40/£$1,400 21/3£933$1.50/£$1,400 31/3£875$1.60/£$1,400 Case 3 11/3£1,000$1.40/£$1,400 21/3£1,000$1.50/£$1,500 31/3£1,000$1.60/£$1,600

14. November 18, 2003 14 Example (continued) In case 1, the local currency price of the asset and the exchange rate are positively correlated. This gives rise to substantial exchange rate risk. StateProbabilityP*SS×P* Case 1 11/3£980$1.40/£$1,372 21/3£1,000$1.50/£$1,500 31/3£1,070$1.60/£$1,712

15. November 18, 2003 15 Example (continued) In case 2 the local currency price of the asset and the exchange rate are negatively correlated. This offsets the exchange rate risk substantially. (Completely in this example.) StateProbabilityP*SS×P* Case 2 11/3£1,000$1.40/£$1,400 21/3£933$1.50/£$1,400 31/3£875$1.60/£$1,400

16. November 18, 2003 16 Example (continued) In case three, the local currency price of the asset is fixed at £1,000 This “contractual” exposure can be completely hedged. StateProbabilityP*SS×P* Case 3 11/3£1,000$1.40/£$1,400 21/3£1,000$1.50/£$1,500 31/3£1,000$1.60/£$1,600

17. November 18, 2003 17 Operating Exposure: Definition The effect of random changes in exchange rates on the firm’s competitive position, which is not readily measurable. A good definition of operating exposure is the extent to which the firm’s operating cash flows are affected by the exchange rate.

18. November 18, 2003 18 Operating Exposure Note that operating exposure has two components: The Competitive Effect—changes in the exchange rate affect the competitive position of the firm in the market. Conversion effect—operating cash flow in home currency falls with a currency depreciation.

19. November 18, 2003 19 Determinants of Operating Exposure The operating exposure cannot be readily determined from the firm’s accounting statements as can transaction exposure. The firm’s operating exposure is determined by: The market structure of inputs and products: how competitive or how monopolistic the markets facing the firm are. The firm’s ability to adjust its markets, product mix, and sourcing in response to exchange rate changes.

20. November 18, 2003 20 Determinants of Operating Exposure A firm is subject to high degrees of operating exposure when either its cost or price is sensitive to exchange rate changes. On the other hand, when both the cost and price are sensitive or insensitive to exchange rate changes, the firm has no major operating exposure.

21. November 18, 2003 21 Determinants of Operating Exposure The extent to which a firm is subject to operating exposure depends on the firm’s ability to stabilize cash flows in the face of exchange rate changes. Facing exchange rate changes a firm may choose one of the following three pricing strategies : pass the cost shock fully to its selling prices (complete pass-through)  inelastic demand fully absorb the shock to keep its selling prices unaltered ( no pass-through)  elastic demand do some combination of the two strategies described above (partial pass-through).

22. November 18, 2003 22 Managing Operating Exposure Selecting Low Cost Production Sites Flexible Sourcing Policy Diversification of the Market R&D and Product Differentiation Financial Hedging

23. November 18, 2003 23 Selecting Low Cost Production Sites A firm may wish to diversify the location of their production sites to mitigate the effect of exchange rate movements. i.e. Honda built North American factories in response to a strong yen, but later found itself importing more cars from Japan due to a weak yen. May prevent economies of scale and scope.

24. November 18, 2003 24 Flexible Sourcing Policy Sourcing—produce where input costs are low or buy parts where produced the cheapest. Doesn’t only apply to components, but also to “guest workers”. i.e. Japan Air Lines hired foreign crews to remain competitive in international routes in the face of a strong yen, but later contemplated a reverse strategy in the face of a weak yen and rising domestic unemployment.

25. November 18, 2003 25 Diversification of the Market Selling in multiple markets to take advantage of economies of scale and diversification of exchange rate risk. Diversifying across business lines— conglomerate. May create inefficiency and losses.

26. November 18, 2003 26 R&D and Product Differentiation Successful R&D that allows for cost cutting enhanced productivity product differentiation. Successful product differentiation gives the firm less elastic demand—which may translate into less exchange rate risk.

27. November 18, 2003 27 Financial Hedging The goal is to stabilize the firm’s cash flows in the near term. Financial Hedging is distinct from operational hedging. Financial Hedging involves use of derivative securities such as currency swaps, futures, forwards, currency options, among others. See Merck case.