1. M&V 2.0 - Background and Applications
Building Performance
Session 2: Elements of Building and Data Management Tools
M&V Background and Applications
David Jump, Ph.D., P.E.
Quantum Energy Services & Technologies, Inc.
August 3, 2015

2. Agenda
M&V Defined
Tools
Example Application
Guidelines

3. Whole Building M&V Option C - Whole Building
Option B: Retrofit Isolation (HVAC Systems)

4. Technology Advancements
Advanced Metering Systems
Capture time-granular data (5-15 minute, daily)
Time-of-use meters in large buildings
Smart Meters
Small and medium sized commercial
Residential
Building sub meters / EMS trends
Advanced Modeling Capability
Advanced Regressions
Change-point models
Nearest Neighbor
Neural Networks, etc.
More influencing parameters: weather, time of day, solar effects

5. M&V 2.0 Definition
M&V 2.0 uses short time interval data and advanced analytics to determine actual savings in a building or building subsystem
Intervals: 5, 15 minute, hourly, daily, etc.
Applicable at any building sub system level when data available
M&V 1.0: monthly billing data, degree-days, ordinary least squares, or other simple regression analysis

6. Illustration – Monthly vs. Interval Data
M&V Monthly
M&V Interval

7. Comparison M&V 2.0 – Interval Data M&V 1.0 –Monthly Data
Linear regressions
12 months/data points per year
High uncertainty with moderate savings
Ex: 10% savings, 10% CV, 95% confidence
77% Uncertainty
Monitoring duration req.
12-month baseline & post
Advanced analytics
8760 hourly points per year
6-fold lower uncertainty with moderate savings
Ex: 10% savings, 10% CV, 95% confidence, high autocorrelation
12% Uncertainty
Monitoring duration – can be much shorter
3 & 6 month baseline
3 & 6 month post
Applicable to subsystem interval data

8. Timeline Representation

9. Predictability Good buildings: Predictable operation Bad buildings
Requires intervention
Ugly buildings
Cannot predict future use
The Good
The Bad
The Ugly

10. Whole Building M&V 2.0 Advantages
Comprehensive: accounts for all ECM savings, including interactive effects
Simple: few data streams required
Shorter monitoring requirements: Baseline model development and savings estimations based on months, not years
Higher quality: Estimates savings uncertainty
Persistence: Fast feedback on building performance
Scalable: one methodology for all buildings
Lower administration costs: standardization and automation reduces time required for both savings analysis and technical review, tools help too!
Tool Availability: public domain and embedded in EMIS

11. Unable to determine savings above code and standard requirements
Disadvantages
Unable to determine savings above code and standard requirements
Intervention required for non-routine loads
Added loads
Temporary outages
Unexpected behavior
Unpredictable buildings
Prescreening may be required

12. M&V 2.0 Tools Public Domain EMIS - Proprietary Universal Translator
M&V Analysis Module
Energy Charting and Metrics Tool
Inverse Model Toolkit (RP 1050)

13. Tool/Model Testing and Validation
DOE Building Technologies Office supporting work to accelerate the adoption of analytics tools and interval data for M&V
Leverage automation and increasingly available data to reduce time and cost of M&V, while maintaining or improving accuracy
Develop transparent statistical test procedures to quantify accuracy of models used in automated tools
Apply test procedures to demonstrate accuracy for 10 proprietary and published models w/ data from 500+ buildings
Demonstrate automated approaches in partnership with utilities, implementers, tool vendors
Tool, Model B
Tool, Model A

14. Energy Charting and Metrics (ECAM)
Excel add-in
Free:

15. ASHRAE Inverse Model Toolkit
UI Versions: E-model, Energy Explorer

16. Universal Translator M&V Tool
Sponsored by California Energy Commission PIER Funds
Goals:
Enable users to develop accurate baseline models with short-time interval energy data
Enable quantification of savings and uncertainty
Reduce the overall time to conduct M&V analysis
Facilitate project review through transparency and standardization

17. What is the UT M&V Tool?
Analysis Module in PG&E’s Universal Translator version 3 (UT3)
Free software for desktop use
UT3 + M&V Module provides:
Data preparation functions (merge, time re-sampling, etc.)
Advanced regression modeling
Model fit and sufficiency checks
Savings quantification
Uncertainty analysis
Users:
Service providers
Technical reviewers
Others

18. User Interface

25. Discussion
Wide application: University buildings, laboratories, large commercial offices, medical offices, etc.
Allows intervention for non-routine loads
Added loads
Temporary outages
Unexpected behavior
Can be used as:
quality assurance of savings estimates, or
the savings settlement methodology
Low learning curve, typical time for analysis is hours, not days

26. M&V Tool Limitations Time and one independent variable
Future version to include additional variables
Reporting features can be improved
Uncertainty Algorithm
Currently requires 12 months baseline & 6 months post-installation data
Unpredictable buildings
Prescreening may be required

27. Applications Quality Assurance
Parallel analysis to traditional deemed or engineering calculations
Ca. UC/CSU/CCC MBCx programs
Programs where codes and standards do not apply
RCx
Controls
Behavioral
Savings settlement method for
Comprehensive EE Programs
RCx, Retrofit, Behavioral, DR
Continuous Improvement
Set a baseline and track progress
Pay for Performance
Pay based on through the meter savings
With or without ex-ante savings estimates

28. Case Study: Pay-for-Performance
Seattle City Light Program
Participating Building
582,000 ft2, 34 story office bldg, 30% occupied
Electric heating and cooling systems
M&V Tool used to set baseline & track savings
Measures implemented over time
Isolation dampers – don’t condition unoccupied zones
Replace a 550 ton chiller and convert to VAV CHW loop
VFDs on hp supply, 60 hp exhaust fans
1st year savings: 16%
Uncertainty: 68% CI => 16% ± 1% (ASHRAE G14)
Compares with M&V tool cross-validation method

29. Pay-For-Performance 1 2 3

30. Application Protocols and Guidelines I
Bonneville Power Administration
Conduit:
Engineering Calculations with Verification
Sampling Reference Guide & Tool
Regression Reference Guide
Equipment or End-Use Metering
Option A or B
Energy Modeling (Option B or C)
Energy Use Indexing (Option C)
Existing Building Commissioning Application Guide
End-Use Metering (absent baseline) Application Guide

31. Application Protocols and Guidelines I
Bonneville Power Administration
Conduit:
Engineering Calculations with Verification
Sampling Reference Guide & Tool
Regression Reference Guide
Equipment or End-Use Metering
Option A or B
Energy Modeling (Option B or C)
Energy Use Indexing (Option C)
Existing Building Commissioning Application Guide
End-Use Metering (absent baseline) Application Guide

32. Thank You! Questions? David Jump, Ph.D., P.E.
Quantum Energy Services & Technologies, Inc.
Berkeley, CA