1. South American Monsoon in Current and Future Climate Ana Carolina Nóbile Tomaziello - BRAZIL Carla Natalia Gulizia - ARGENTINA Douglas Lindemann - BRAZIL Flávio Justino - BRAZIL

2. Objectives Evaluate ENSO as represented by CMIP5 GCMs (INM - Russia, MPI - Germany, MRI - Japan, NCC - Norway) for both present and future climate. Evaluate the South American Monsoon response to ENSO variability. (http://www.clivar.org/sites/default/files/imported/organization/vamos/Publications/vamos_pg3.htm)

3. Precipitation rate Surface temperature (47%) NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis

4. 4 years peak

5. CMIP5 models

6. EOF1 INM (12%) (13%) MRI MPI (23%) NCC (26%) Present (1970-2000) Variance OBS: 47%

7. NCC MPI INM MRI Present (1970-2000) – Precipitation rate

8. MPI INM MRI Present (1970-2000) – Surface temperature NCC

9. Into the future...

10. INM MPI MRI NCC (20%) (26%) (32%) (23%) (12%) (13%) (23%) (26%) EOF1 Future (2070-2100)

11. NCC MPI INM MRI Present (1970-2000) – Precipitation rate

12. INM MRI Future (2070-2100) – Precipitation rate NCC MPI

13. INM MRI Present (1970-2000) – Surface temperature NCC

14. MRI Future (2070-2100) – Surface temperature INM MPI

15. Conclusions MPI and NCC (MRI and INM) could (not) reproduce the South America ENSO response as compared to reanalysis data; MPI and NCC (MRI and INM) were (not) able to reproduce the ENSO characteristic timescale; In exception of NCC all models show stronger ENSO in future climate as compared to present day modeled climate; Generally, South America monsoon response to future ENSO would be associated with drier and warmer climate conditions.

16. Obrigado!¡Gracias!

17. Observations (NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis)

19. INMPresent

20. MRIPresent

21. MPIPresent

22. NCCPresent

23. INM Future

24. MRI Future

25. MPI Future

26. NCC Future