1. Project - Strengthening of the Institutional Framework for the Development of Occupational Standards, Qualifications and Curricula Sector Profiles Qualification P lanning T ool Sanja Crnković-Pozaić Mislav Balković Teo Matković Maja Jukić Eric Verin Final Conference December 6 2011, Zagreb

2. Topics  Why is Qualification Planning Necessary?  How Did it all Start?  Step-by-step Methodology  What Makes this Methodology Different?  Approach Benefits  Sector Profile in Wider Strategic Context  Sustainability of the Approach

3. Why is Qualification Planning Necessary?  Use of knowledge and skills within the economy changes faster than the process of achieving qualifications  For good planning, it is essential to predict future labour market needs  No national development strategy in Croatia, no future labour market needs analyses  However, County strategies set development goals and action plans for achieving the goals  Is there enough knowledge and skills in Croatian Counties to meet the development goals?

4. Karlovac County Example: Development of Tourism, Agriculture and Processing Industries

5. Educational Programmes in Mechanical Engineering, Shipbuilding and Metallurgy Sector Programme SchoolDurationYear 1Year 2Year 3Year 4TOTAL Mechanical Engineering Computing Technician TECHNICAL SCHOOL KARLOVAC428293022109 Car Body Mechanic - JMO TECHNICAL SCHOOL KARLOVAC3 JMO66 Car Mechanic - JMO TECHNICAL SCHOOL KARLOVAC3 JMO19131244 Car Mechanic - JMO TECHNICAL AND CRAFTS SCHOOL OGULIN 3 JMO771226 Car Mechanic - JMO SECONDARY SCHOOL SLUNJ3 JMO66 Heating and cooling installer- JMO TECHNICAL SCHOOL KARLOVAC3 JMO12151441 Heating and cooling installer- JMO SECONDARY SCHOOL SLUNJ3 JMO55 Machinist - JMO TECHNICAL SCHOOL KARLOVAC 3 JMO10515 Machinist - JMO TECHNICAL AND CRAFTS SCHOOL OGULIN 3 JMO45817 Machinist - JMO SECONDARY SCHOOL SLUNJ3 JMO99 Turner - JMO TECHNICAL SCHOOL KARLOVAC3 JMO116926 Turner - JMO SECONDARY SCHOOL SLUNJ3 JMO77 Plumber - JMO TECHNICAL SCHOOL KARLOVAC 3 JMO1113226 Plumber - JMO TECHNICAL AND CRAFTS SCHOOL OGULIN 3 JMO82414 Plumber - JMO SECONDARY SCHOOL SLUNJ3 JMO44 UKUPNO 10012211122355

6. How Did it All Start?  27/02/2009. the Vocational Education and Training Act Adopted Article 17 Sector Councils are composed in a partnership and are advisory and expert bodies that express needs of the labour market, higher education and all other components of Croatian society through: - defining necessary VET qualifications, - analyzing current and necessary competencies within sectors and sub-sectors, - giving opinions to the Agency about necessary content of VET qualifications, - developing content of parts of VET qualifications standards, - promoting the sector and possibilities of employment within the sector, - giving proposals of the network of curricula and VET institutions to the founders of VET institutions, - establishing profiles within each educational sector.

7. How Did it All Start?  01/12/2009. first meeting of the Electrotechnics and Computing Sector Council (ECSC) held  Conclusions of the fourth meeting held 26/05/2010: A) ECSC has neither the resources nor the possibilities to carry out comprehensive sector analyses and needs support B) ECSC will not make decisions without relevant indicators to avoid any long-term adverse effects on the educational system and the society as a whole  Professional sector councils taken as a model

8. How Did it All Start?  “Locked” data existed in different institutions even before the Development of Sector Profile  Existing analyses use only economic activities based methodologies, no data by County

10. How Did it all Start Article 15 (1) The Minister based on a proposal of the VET Council and with prior opinion of the Agency makes a decision by which educational sectors are established as integrative areas of one or more professions. (2) Each educational sector contains a group of curricula based on which students acquire knowledge, skills and competencies in a certain profile for performing specific activities in different occupations.

11. Step-by-step Methodology SupplyDemand Demographic Reserve of Labour Force Initial VET Students Workers who Want to Change Jobs Unemployed Job OpeningsEmployed

12. Step-by-step Methodology – Data Sources for Analysis of Supply and Demand of Sector Occupations

13. Methodology – Demand Analysis Step 1 – Identify Occupations within Educational Sector Occupations from National Classification of Occupations broken down into Educational Sectors

14. Step 2: Which Economic Activities Use Sector Occupations? Dispersion…………………………………..…Concentration

15. Step 3: Employment Trends Analysis in Key Economic Activities

16. Step 4: Demand Indicators for Occupations from Sector – EMPLOYMENT RATES

17. Step 5: Supply Analysis – Enrolment Structure in Sector Education Programmes

18. Step 5: Supply Analysis – Number of Children at High- School-Age

19. Step 5: Supply Analysis – General Trends in Labour Supply from the Education System  Decreasing enrolment trend for three-year programmes from 13,45% to 3,3% annually!  Enrolment trends in 4-year programmes vary greatly with total slump of -2,7%  Growth in number of enrolments in “gimnazija” schools, which reflects desire for higher education  Growth in number of 4-year programme graduates who enrol into universities  Their success rate in achieving these qualifications is around 50%

20. Step 6: Supply Analysis – The Unemployed Registered at the Croatian Employment Service  Age and education structure of the unemployed is significantly weaker than that of the employed  Average duration of unemployment vastly destroys acquired knowledge and skills; therefore significant investments in training, activation and self-esteem development are crucial before using this labour supply for development  This problem is even more dramatic with inactive population  Therefore, if educational programmes are not matched with the needs of the economy through the educational system, a vicious circle of low productivity and long-term unemployment is created, especially for young population, thus keeping development on a low level

21. Step 7 Synthesis: Youth Destination Occupations by Sector Registr ations at CES Number of enrolled in final year Enrolled in university in same year (2009.) Found job within 12 months Engineers and technicians employed Simple occupations employed Occupation correspond s to Sector Profile Agriculture, Food Processing and Veterinary2657549647%50%11%34%17% Forestry and Wood Processing736143946%56%25%34%45% Geology, Mining, Oil and Chemical Industries30372181%52%15%31%n/a Leather and Textiles532113848%53%5%24%22% Graphic technology and Audio-Visual Media Design1012241746%37%15%23%20% Mechanical Engineering, Shipbuilding and Metallurgy1717431550%44%17%31%25% Electrotechnics and IT47911432068%48%17%26% Construction and Geodesy1277388864%47%39%22%47% Economy, Business, Trade and Administration85882471778%44%6%20%54% Tourism and Catering2431779968%50%4%18%53% Transport and Logistics2572492865%44%5%29%18% Health and Social Welfare4373934747%39%75%8%75% Security Services, Personal and Other Services873115956%4%11%54% Total325998168465%45% 21% 22%43% Ishodi: četverogodi š nji programi

22. Step 8: Supply and Demand of Sector Occupations in Counties, E&R in 2010 Sector 7 Employed with sectoral occupations Employed in the 50-64 age group Retirees annually 3-year programme graduates 4-year programme graduates 4-year programme graduates who remain employed (32%) Total of graduates who remain employed Number of young people per job role Lika-Senj 13225224421337 22,4 Virovitica-Podravina 14529221471536 18,4 Vukovar-Srijem 695156107113343114 10,9 Bjelovar-Bilogora 6061299521274193 10,8 Požega-Slavonia 41874525802651 10,3 Šibenik-Knin 691129948912977 9,0 Krapina-Zagorje 517103734852761 8,9 Zadar 617131944933074 8,5 Karlovac 5591148211093556 7,4 Sisak-Moslavina 1.183221156312339102 6,9 Koprivnica-Križevci 676142931943061 6,5 Sl.Brod-Posavina 1.25023516511374495 6,1 Varaždin 1.331314215719161118 5,7 Zagreb 2.1984743210023976176 5,6 Dubrovnik-Neretva 650136931591950 5,5 Istra 2.3975163411913443162 4,7 Split-Dalmatia 3.2917114711530698213 4,5 Osijek-Baranja 1.765380255517255110 4,3 Primorje-Gorski Kotar 2.400485329012941131 4,1 Croatia 54.82111.7507831.1763.3321.0662.242 2,9 Međimurje 1.2902721824531741 2,3 City of Zagreb 32.0126.975465100888284384 0,8

23. Step 9: Methodology for COMPETENCE Based Supply and Demand Analysis There is no up-to-date and comprehensive research of VET and general competence needs by occupations or groups of occupations, although different employer needs analyses exist Without employer needs research it is not possible to develop a qualification standard nor is it possible to develop the relevant occupational standards

24. Step 9: Step-by-step Methodology - Competences

25. Step 9 Data sources for competence needs analysis

27. Step 9: Step-by-step Methodology - Competences

28. ProgramerskiSistemski

29. Step 9: Step-by-step Methodology - Competences

30. What makes this methodology different? 1. Planning by industries does not provide clear indicators to the education sector since the NKD (SOC/SIC) classification does not correspond to VET sectors. Example : 21 NKD industry, processing industry covers as many as 7 to 13 VET sectors

31. Step 9: Step-by-step Methodology - Competences

32. What Makes this Methodology Different? 2. In the development of Competence Matrix, other sources taken into consideration, not only employers Predicted technological advances from Sector Profile, Regional Development Strategies, Horizontal Industry Strategies, Entrepreneurial Learning Strategy… National Framework Curriculum EU Strategic Documents (e.g. new skills for new jobs, digital agenda for Europe, e-competences framework), Cedefop, ETF… Professional Associations Data (IEEE, CEPIS…)

33. Approach Benefits  Understanding the place of sector knowledge and skills within the market  Sector Strategy development  Development of high quality qualifications and curricula  Identified supply and demand gap  Basis for planning education programme quotas by County  Support to Croatian Qualifications Framework development

34. Approach Benefits  Possibility to start carrying out new EU research (ESCO Project) that link QUALIFICATIONS, OCCUPATIONS AND COMPETENCES, which will be crucial for Croatia joining the EURES

35. Sector Profile contributes to the strategic objectives of the Bruges Communiqué and is aligned with the Copenhagen Process, which indicate the need to: 1.Make VET more attractive A)Give clear labour market information to future students and parents B)Follow-up and feedback of graduates’ transfer to labour market 2.Improve quality and relevance of the VET system A)Research labour market competence needs (ESCO) to inform the development of NQF B)Assure that programmes are relevant and include general and vocational competences 3. Assure that access to education is flexible A)Encourage career guidance system development Sector Profile in Wider Strategic Context

36. 5. Foster innovation, entrepreneurial competences and ICT usage A) Foster entrepreneurial competences 6. Build an inclusive VET system A)Assure that initial VET system includes both VET and key competences B)Decrease drop-out rates through educational contents consistent with the labour market 7. Include stakeholders in VET system development and increase visibility 11. Improve quality and comparability of data used to inform the decision- making process A)Assure data collection for internal use and Eurostat B)Establish structured cooperation with the public employment service Sector Profile in Wider Strategic Context

37. -Handbook for using Sector Profile prepared -Handbook for developing Sector Profile prepared -Sector Councils support team assembled and trained -Further institutional support for researching competences by occupation is being sought - Potential partners (CES– direction, CBS – NCEA which can become the CROQF database of Occupational Standards). Sustainability of the Approach

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