1. Computer Modeling of Satellite Debris Following Breakup or Collision Thomas Nevins, and Dr. Paul Thomas Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Wisconsin - Eau Claire nevinstd@uwec.edu, thomaspj@uwec.edu Abstract With the increased use of satellites in low Earth orbit (LEO) there has also been an increase in the amount of man-made orbital debris in LEO. Events like the explosion of the Breeze M rocket stage last October and the collision between Iridium-33 and Cosmos-2251 satellites can create a great deal of debris which disperses after impact. These objects in high-speed orbit around the earth have great potential to damage functional satellites also in orbit. This can become a significant threat to the existing satellite array and even to future missions beyond Earth. This research project has constructed a theoretical model of all the forces on satellite debris using a non-inertial reference frame. Then a computer simulation was created using this theoretical model based on the concept of finite differencing. In this poster we will demonstrate the simulation by presenting the results for a simple model where the satellite fragments into twelve pieces of equal mass radiating in equally spaced directions. Predicted trajectories for the fragments will be given. Acknowledgements We would like to thank the University of Wisconsin – Eau Claire Department of Physics and Astronomy for allowing us to use their computers. Satellite Debris The number of satellites in low Earth orbit (LEO) has grown by huge amounts in the last half-century. This satellite field is growing every year, and along with the thousands of functioning satellites is a growing number of broken satellites. The “space junk” remains in orbit around the earth, and it routinely moves at over 20,000 mph. At this speed even small pieces of debris are capable of destroying functional satellites. Then even more debris is created by the collisions. This compounding effect can threaten the entire satellite array and future mission beyond Earth. The debris problem has already started to grow and organizations like NASA are devoting a great deal of energy to tracking the debris. (3) Tracking methods are useful, but they lack the predictive abilities of a model of debris behavior. Many others have already begun to work on this: some have created methods to predict how a satellite will break apart (1), others have constructed algorithms to test for collisions on “near passes” of satellites based on probability (2). The next step is to actually model the path of debris after breakup and use it to predict the effectiveness of future countermeasures. Results Fig 3. Four graphs of the same breakup conditions at different times in the simulation. This is for 12 shards radiating in evenly spaced directions. The end point of each curve is the location of a fragment at that graph’s time. Objectives Create awareness of the orbital debris problem. Demonstrate the usefulness of non-inertial reference frames and computer simulation to predict behavior of satellite debris. Present results on the predicted trajectory of satellite debris after breakup. Discuss the importance of what these trajectories tell us. References (1) Springer, H.K. et al. (2010) Satellite Collision Modeling with Physics-Based Hydrocodes: Debris Generation Predictions of the Iridium-Cosmos Collision Event and Other Impact Events. 2010 AMOS (Advanced Maui Optical and Space Surveillance) Conference Proceedings, Kihei, HI, pp. 362-372. (2) de Vires W.H., and D.W. Phillion (2010). Monte Carlo Method for Collision Probability Calculations using 3D Satellite Models. Proc. Adv. Maui Optical and Space Surveillance Technol. Conf., Wailea, Maui, HI. (3) NASA Orbital Debris Program Office, http://orbitaldebris.jsc.nasa.gov/. (Accessed April 18 th, 2013). (4) All simulations were programmed and plotted using the computer algebra system Maple 14.http://orbitaldebris.jsc.nasa.gov/ Computer Modeling We map the path of orbital debris using an algorithmic process known as finite differencing. This process starts with some initial values for position and velocity for all objects concerned. Next the computer uses equations programmed into it to calculate what the position and velocity of each object will be in the next step of time. The equations give acceleration in terms of velocity and position. A particle is moved based on a previous velocity, then a new acceleration is calculated. The new acceleration is used to calculate a new velocity. The process repeats with the new velocity calculating a new position. For this particular project we used Maple 14 to write the program. Maple includes a number of plotting commands that allow us to get visuals on the results of each test. We created a number of shards and then gave them evenly spaced starting velocities to simulate a satellite breaking in a uniform circle. Then we used our equations of motion to step each piece through a set number of time steps. At the end we wrote code to plot the x and z coordinates together for each shard of a broken satellite. Conclusions The above graph helps to show the pin wheeling effect of objects in orbit. Objects tossed upwards enter a higher orbit which causes them to move backwards relative to the original center of mass, meanwhile objects thrown downward can move faster in the lower orbit. This indicates that the simulation is functioning true to the real world. Trajectories then get more complicated in the 3000 second frame in Figure 3. These trajectories are complicated, intertwining and swirling. The shards have also spread out a great deal since breakup. In fifty minutes they have spread to 500 kilometers in the vertical direction. Using finite differencing and non-inertial systems has proven to create accurate trajectories for satellite breakup. Even more important is that this simulation is highly flexible. Mass of satellite, area of satellite, initial height and many other terms are coded into the simulation as variables and thus they can be changed at will. Even the breakup pattern can be changed in only a few lines of code. Most current satellites in orbit could have their specifics entered to predict breakup patterns. In the future it may even be able to predict the usefulness of debris reduction methods. On a darker note, this simulation reveals how a single breakup event can quickly occupy hundreds of cubed kilometers around the original satellite. Each satellite fragment above carries the kinetic energy to destroy any other satellite or even a manned spacecraft leaving the Earth. If we wish to continue to enjoy the benefits of satellites we will have to protect them from debris by predicting trajectories and finding debris reduction methods. If not, we may soon find LEO occupied by a wall of high speed space junk. Non-Inertial Model One of the biggest problems with determining the behavior of satellites is that they are already moving around the Earth at some speed before they break down. A traditional x-y coordinate system can introduce many unwanted problems. What we have done to simplify the problem is create a non-inertial reference frame. (See Fig 2.) The reference frame is fixed at the Earth’s center and rotates with the original center of mass of the satellite at a fixed point on the z-axis. Non-inertial reference frames are coordinate systems similar to the familiar x-y system, but they are able to move and accelerate in a predefined way. For instance, in our system the frame rotates around the Earth. Non-inertial reference frames can lead to the development of “fictional forces”, including centrifugal, Coriolis, and transverse forces. These forces do not exist, but for something observing from a non-inertial reference frame they appear in order to explain object behavior. For example imagine a sharp turn during a car ride. To a passenger it seems as though they are being forced to the outside of the curve. This force does not exist, but since the frame (the car) is non-inertial, it feels like being thrown outwards. In a sense this reference frame allows us to see the forces involved from the satellites point of view. Fig. 1. Rendering of debris currently in LEO around Earth. (From nasa.gov) Fig 2. (left) The reference frame is fixed at the earth’s center and it rotates with a specific angular velocity, ω. (right) Up close we can see that the z-axis of this system rotates with the original angular velocity of the satellite’s center of mass. If the satellite did not break apart it would be expected to remain stationary in this reference frame, balanced by gravity and the centrifugal force. To the satellite the atmosphere appears to be moving to the left. The result is that graphs in this system are really showing how far the shards deviate from their original path. Z X Atmosphere Gravity Centrifugal force