1. 鄭先祐 (Ayo) 國立臺南大學 生態科學與技術學系 教授 Innovations in understanding complex systems 1 生態議題論述 2011 Ayo NUTN Web: http://myweb.nutn.edu.tw/~hycheng/ http://myweb.nutn.edu.tw/~hycheng/ 生態議題論述 2011 April

2. Five parts 生態議題論述 2011 2 1.Innovations in understanding complex systems 2.Innovations in evaluating agricultural development projects 3.Innovations in institutions to support people and the planet 4.Innovations in governance 5.Innovations in policy reform

3. Staggering expansion 生態議題論述 2011 3  In the last 50 years the gross world product has exploded from roughly $7 trillion per year to nearly $60 trillion.  This staggering expansion has had disastrous effects on natural resources, both renewable and nonrenewable.  By 2003, for instance, some 27% of the world’s marine fisheries had already collapsed.  Water is becoming scarce  Rates of species extinction has far exceeded background rates for decades.

4. Agriculture ： one of the major culprits 生態議題論述 2011 4  Agriculture is one of the major culprits( 主要被告 ) in this scenario.  Agriculture today accounts for 70% of water withdrawals and 15% of green house gas emissions – with nearly 75% of that emitted by developing countries.  An additional 11% of total emissions are caused by destruction of 13 million hectares of forest each year, largely by agricultural encroachment.

5. Agriculture’s complexity 生態議題論述 2011 5 1.Farming itself is complicated in ways that nonfarmers can hardly grasp: (crop characteristics, weather and microclimate, soil types and fertility, pests and disease threats, field rotation schemes, livestock/crop interactions, market demand) 2.Sustainable agriculture is more complex because it does not take place in an economic vacuum. (socioeconomic system) 3.Food production is embedded in and also reshapes the natural environment.

6. Using computer models 生態議題論述 2011 6  In particular, system dynamics models make it possible to represent agricultural development as a process involving many social, economic, and environmental factors, and then to ask lots of “what if?” questions.  It is possible to compare different policies across various scenarios.  For example, to compare the use of organic and chemical fertilizers.

7. Organic and chemical fertilizers 生態議題論述 2011 7  Organic fertilizers can lead to higher soil quality and yields as well as lower water consumption and more carbon sequestration in the soil – thus potentially playing a lead role in curbing the rise of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations.  Chemical fertilizers are likely to become less competitive, especially for farmers in developing countries.

8. Ecological agriculture 生態議題論述 2011 8  The transition from current conventional and traditional agriculture to ecological agriculture requires better management of key resources such as soil, biodiversity, and water, supplemented with research and extension services.  These practices increase productivity, create employment, and mitigate emissions.  Managing this transition will take money and time.

9. Agricultural investments (4 areas) 生態議題論述 2011 9 1.Reduction of pre-harvest losses, currently estimated to reach about 30% of total crop production 2.Reduction of post-harvest food losses through better storage and processing in rural areas 3.Agriculture management practices for increased farm productivity by making the transition to organic, conservation, and agroecology farming. ($85—100 per hectare) 4.Research, development, capacity, and skill building for sustainable agriculture.

10. Green investment vs. Business-as-Usual (BAU) 生態議題論述 2011 10  Green investment demonstrate why economic development and natural resource exploitation should not be considered analogous( 同功的 ).  Assure greater food availability.  While they result in slower economic growth due to conservation of natural resources and low carbon production in the short term, they are more sustainable over the long term.  More resilience( 彈性 ), lower emissions, reducing dependence on fossil fuels, and emphasize efficient and sustainable use of natural resources, curtailing( 減少 ) global warming and resource depletion.

11. BAU development 生態議題論述 2011 11  Accelerates consumption, which stimulates economic growth in the short and medium term but extends and worsens current trends of natural resource depletion. And the long-term trend is frightening.  Once natural resource stocks start to decline severely, the economy and employment begin to suffer because of reduced production, higher energy price, and growing emissions.  Additional consequences may include massive migration driven by resource shortage, accelerated climate change, and considerably higher rates of extinction.

12. Green economy 生態議題論述 2011 12  Total agricultural production increases.  Employment, including both direct and indirect jobs, grows considerably.  A reduced demand for land indicates positive synergies between ecological agriculture investments and forest management.  Reduction of agricultural water demand.

13. Second-generation biofuels 生態議題論述 2011 13  Up to 25% of agricultural and forestry residues are estimated to be readily available for production.  Combined with the use of marginal lands, this resource could create as many as a few million jobs by 2030 and effectively support the transition beyond oil.  The long-term maintenance of soil fertility through “re-investing” all possible crop and biofuel production residues as organic fertilizers.

14. R & D policies and action 生態議題論述 2011 14  There are no longer any excuses, as tools are now available to help inform new agricultural research and development (R & D) policies.  Most countries will miss the deadline of 2015 for all the Millennium Development Goals agreed to in 2000, many of which have strong synergistic links with agriculture, the environment, and society.  Firm and effective action is strongly needed to change the present agricultural paradigm.

15. The actions 生態議題論述 2011 15  The actions required will vary from place to place, as agriculture depends heavily on local environments, people, and other factors.  This is where tools that assess agricultural systems within the wider context of the environment, society, and the economy come in handy.  Playing out “what if?” development policy scenarios with all interested stakeholders will allow visualization and discussion leading to common understanding and agreement on a way forward, with a grasp of the intended and unintended consequences of given policy choices.

16. Ayo NUTN website: http://myweb.nutn.edu.tw/~hycheng/ 問題與討論 生態議題論述 2011 April 16 國立臺南大學 通識課程 2011 年春