1. INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE: REGIONAL TRADE INTEGRATION IN SOUTH EAST EUROPE: BENEFITS AND CHALLENGES BILATERAL VERSUS MULTILATERAL APPROACH TOWARDS REGIONAL INTEGRATION IN SOUTHEAST EUROPE Prof. Biljana Sekulovska-Gaber University "Ss. Cyril and Methodius” Faculty of Economics Skopje, Republic of Macedonia

2. Personal presentation Introducing the title (bilateral vs. multilateral approach) "European project" has always had clear political and security implications Presentation of the plan Time for questions

3. The plan Session I Political dimension of cooperation in the Region of Southeast Europe Session II Economic dimension of cooperation in the Region of Southeast Europe Session III Results on political stability and good-neighbors relations Conclusions and discussion Regional cooperation = closer to EU membership?

4. INTRODUCTION European "Story" ( read "Project” ) continues Why regional cooperation is one of the consistent elements of European integration? Lessons learnt in the region of SEE (“Balkanization”)

5. Multilateral versus Bilateral approach Stability Pact (Commission Communication of May 1999: multilateral - words) Democratization and human rights Economic cooperation, reconstruction and development Security questions SAP (Conclusions of General Affairs Council of June 21, 1999: bilateral - action) The development of existing economic and trade relations with the EU and the region The development/partial reorientation of existing economic and financial assistance Increased assistance for democratisation, civil society, education and institution-building The use of new opportunities for cooperation in various fields (including justice and home affairs) The development of political dialogue, including regional level

6. I. POLITICAL DIMENSION Enriching SP with RCC as successor (2008) First comprehensive conflict prevention strategy (lack of own legal body that would ensure its funding) Use of significant peer pressure From post-conflict reconstruction to democratic reforms (EC as a member of RCC) RCC as a “waiting room” until the next wave of EU enlargement? Forum to strengthen political stability and good – neighbors relations and not only a platform to channel funds

7. II. ECONOMIC DIMENSION Does CEFTA-2006 fosters regional trade? Problems with trade data (underreporting and institutional weakness) Regional distribution of exports (EU is the most important trading partner) Export structure after entering into force of CEFTA-2006 (neighbors are back) Economic development in turn favors stability and security

8. II. ECONOMIC DIMENSION AlbaniaBosnia & Herzegovina CroatiaRepublic of Macedonia Serbia & Montenegro EU-25 90.654.064.657.053.4 SEE-5 1.737.619.328.928.5 Albania 0.20.31.40.6 Bosnia & Herzegovina 0.114.42.017.0 Croatia 0.120.44.84.1 Republic of Macedonia 1.20.80.96.8 Serbia 0.416.23.720.8 Regional Export structure, 2004

9. II. ECONOMIC DIMENSION Export structure in the region of SEE, 2008 AlbaniaBosnia & Herzegovina CroatiaRepublic of Macedonia Serbia & Montenegro Serbia Albania 0.31.65 Bosnia & Herzegovina 0.3220.860.12.759.93 Croatia 0.2814.40.951.255.36 Republic of Macedonia 2.172.624.880.8219.05 Montenegro 1.634.551.40.3227.41 Kosovo 12.63.21.110.51.811.7 Serbia 0.9712.24.04.511.7 TOTAL17.9736.9732.2417.9718.3248.45

10. III. RESULTS Signed SAAs and NATO membership of Albania and Croatia (April 1, 2009) Free and fair elections (Albania and Macedonia, 2009 and 2011) Ethnic reconciliation and democratization (return of refugees and IDPs) Announcement by EC for visa liberalization by the end of 2009 and 2010 Progressive and moderate government in Serbia (arrest of Radovan Karadzic and Radko Mladic) Positive developments

11. III. RESULTS Kosovos’s declaration of independence -2008 (the speed could be different) Independence of Montenegro, gaining the candidate status and waiting to start negotiatins Improvement of economic and investment climate (Transition=Accession) Efforts to reduce poverty in the region Effects of temporary or circular migration Positive developments (continued)

12. Multilateral (SP) vs, bilateral approach (SAP and SAA) = assume of regional ownership Regional cooperation was not artificially imposed but emerged from a need to become a part of European Area of Stability, Security and Prosperity Speeding up the transition and achievement of European goals Change in perception of “Balkanization” (Political and Economic Benefits – reduction of likelihood for conflicts) CEFTA – 2006 = Finally “back” to regionalist theory (neighbors are back!) Trade fosters economic cooperation and strengthens political stability and good-neighbors relations, thus brings the SEE Region closer to the EU DISCUSSION Regional cooperation = closer to EU membership!?

13. THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION! Prof. Biljana Sekulovska-Gaber gaber@eccf.ukim.edu.mk