1. 0 WTO Doha Round: Crucial Year - 2007 WTO Doha Round: Crucial Year - 2007 May 18, 2007 May 18, 2007 Junko Kawauchi, JISA Junko Kawauchi, JISA

2. 1 Effect by overall elimination of tariff: US$ 67 B (by OECD) Effect by elimination of tariff, elimination/reduction of agricultural subsidies for 10 years - US$ 275 B (by World Bank ） (estimated in 2015, world income rate – 0.7%, World Income would be about US$ 40 T) Effect by success of Doha Round including liberalization of service sector – US$ 2.3 T (by Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry) *Service Sector is important! Source: METI Economic Effects by Success of Doha Round

3. 2 5th Ministerial Conference (Cancun) Sep. 2003 Negotiations resumed at General Council February 4th Ministerial Conference (Doha) Nov. 2001 2003 General Council Framework Agreement Jul. 2004 200 2 200 4 2005 2006 US President’s TPA Deadline 6th Ministerial Conference (Hong Kong) Dec. 2005 “HK Declaration” (2007 Major Events) Jan. 31 US President Bush Called for TPA extension Mar. 20-21 G33 Ministerial meeting (Jakarta) Apr. 11-15 G6 Ministerial Meeting (New Delhi) May 15-16 OECD Ministerial Council Meeting (Paris) June 6-8 G8 Summit (Heiligendamm, Germany) Round suspended Jul. 2006 Round suspended Jul. 2006 Doha Round – Time Series US Midterm Election Nov. 2006 Doha Round set up Negotiations broke down Informal TNC meeting Nov. 2006 Informal TNC meeting Nov. 2006 End of June, 2007 2008 WTO Informal Ministerial Meeting (Davos) Jan. 27, 2007 Round resumed WTO Informal Ministerial Meeting (Davos) Jan. 27, 2007 Round resumed 2007 Source: METI

4. US G20 (Brazil / India) Request further access to non-agri. market Request further access to agricultural market Reduction of support for domestic agri. sector Request further access to agricultural market Request further access to agri. / non-agri. market Reduction of support for domestic agri. sector Japan EU Major 3 Subjects of the Round 1) Agricultural market access - Lowering tariffs on agricultural products 2) Domestic support for Agriculture sector - Substantial reductions of subsidies 3) NAMA - Lowering tariffs on non- agricultural goods Major Subjects & Player Position 3 Source: METI

5. Triangle Deadlock Agricultural Market Access Support for Domestic Agriculture Non-Agricultural Market Access US EU Japan (G10) EU Developing Countries G20 US Deadlock Couldn’t agree at the Ministerial Meeting in July 2006 Developed Countries DefenseOffense Defense Offense DefenseOffense 4 G20Australia Source: METI

6. 5 Negotiations Resumed in 2007 Jan. 27 Informal Ministerial Meeting in Davos Jan. 31 Informal TNC meeting – formally resumed the Round Jan. 31 US President Bush called for TPA extension Mar. 20-21 G33 Ministerial meeting (Jakarta) Apr. 11-15 G6 Ministerial Meeting (New Delhi) May 15-16 OECD Ministerial Council Meeting (Paris) June 6-8 G8 Summit (Heiligendamm, Germany) End of June Deadline of US President’s TPA - Will it be extended?? End of 2007 New Target to conclude the Round?

7. 6 Non Agricultural Market Access - NAMA Reduction of tariffs: - Need to reduce tariffs mainly of developing countries - Developed countries’ tariffs on some goods are also high - Method to reduce tariffs: “Swiss Formula Coefficient” Elimination of Non-Tariff Barriers

8. 7 GATS Talks (Services) Prepare for break through in Agriculture / NAMA sector Plurilateral negotiation started Computer and Related Services (CRS) Not many difficult regulations compared to other sectors CPC 84 “2 Digit” Commitments: request full commitment for Mode 1-3 “Understanding on the scope of coverage of CPC 84 “

9. 8 New Framework for Service Negotiations Service sector is most important If Agriculture / NAMA negotiations take too long to be agreed, - Another method/framework for services liberalization negotiations needs to be considered ie. Only by ICT service sector plurilateral requesting countries+

10. 9 Key for Successful Doha Round Appropriate political decision by leaders of major players - Renewal of US President’s TPA is indispensable Strong voice from global industry - WITSA represents 73 industries in the world Developing countries’ understanding for trade liberalization - Share success stories / promote communication

11. 10 Crucial Year 2007 New Timeframe of the Doha Round negotiations needs to be shown: - New Target - the end of 2007 possible? Director General Pascal Lamy said, “ a successful outcome to the Round is possible, even in the small amount of time remaining until the end of this year.” We need to recognize its importance and urge governments to conclude the Round

12. Thank you Junko Kawauchi, JISA kawauchi@jisa.or.jp