1. Public spending pressures Robert Chote Carl Emmerson Christine Frayne

2. Total Managed Expenditure (TME)

4. Composition of total managed expenditure 2004-05

5. What increases might we have?

6. CSR 2007 TME (real increase) TME – (health + education + ODA) TME – (health + education + ODA + SS and TC) PBR (2007-08 to 2010-11) 1.80.8–0.1 11 Labour years (1996-97 to 2007-08) Labour under Tory plans (1996-97 to 1998-99) SR to date (1998-99 to 2005-06) Current plans (2005-06 to 2007-08) Source: HM Treasury

7. CSR 2007 TME (real increase) TME – (health + education + ODA) TME – (health + education + ODA + SS and TC) PBR (2007-08 to 2010-11) 1.80.8–0.1 11 Labour years (1996-97 to 2007-08) 3.22.32.4 Labour under Tory plans (1996-97 to 1998-99) SR to date (1998-99 to 2005-06) Current plans (2005-06 to 2007-08) Source: HM Treasury

8. CSR 2007 TME (real increase) TME – (health + education + ODA) TME – (health + education + ODA + SS and TC) PBR (2007-08 to 2010-11) 1.80.8–0.1 11 Labour years (1996-97 to 2007-08) 3.22.32.4 Labour under Tory plans (1996-97 to 1998-99) –0.2–0.7–0.2 SR to date (1998-99 to 2005-06) 4.33.33.1 Current plans (2005-06 to 2007-08) 3.01.92.6 Source: HM Treasury

9. Possible CSR 2007 allocations TME as PBR (1) TME constant as % GDP (2) Other spending constant as % GDP (3) TME constant in real terms TME1.8 TME minus health, education, ODA 0.8 TME minus health, education, ODA, social security and tax credits –0.1 Source: HM Treasury

10. Possible CSR 2007 allocations TME as PBR (1) TME constant as % GDP (2) Other spending constant as % GDP (3) TME constant in real terms TME1.82.4 TME minus health, education, ODA 0.81.7 TME minus health, education, ODA, social security and tax credits –0.11.3 Source: HM Treasury

11. Possible CSR 2007 allocations TME as PBR (1) TME constant as % GDP (2) Other spending constant as % GDP (3) TME constant in real terms TME1.82.42.8 TME minus health, education, ODA 0.81.72.4 TME minus health, education, ODA, social security and tax credits –0.11.32.4 Source: HM Treasury

12. Possible CSR 2007 allocations TME as PBR (1) TME constant as % GDP (2) Other spending constant as % GDP (3) TME constant in real terms TME1.82.42.80.0 TME minus health, education, ODA 0.81.72.4–2.0 TME minus health, education, ODA, social security and tax credits –0.11.32.4–4.9 Source: HM Treasury

13. Annual cost of different illustrative alternative scenarios TME as PBR (1) TME constant as % GDP (2) Other spending constant as % GDP (3) TME constant in real terms TME1.8 Spending cut/increase over 2007 CSR (2005–06 terms) –£8½ bn Additional funding required (2005–06 terms) No change Source: HM Treasury

14. Annual cost of different illustrative alternative scenarios TME as PBR (1) TME constant as % GDP (2) Other spending constant as % GDP (3) TME constant in real terms TME1.82.4 Spending cut/increase over 2007 CSR (2005–06 terms) –£8½ bnNo change Additional funding required (2005–06 terms) No change +£8½ bn Source: HM Treasury

15. Annual cost of different illustrative alternative scenarios TME as PBR (1) TME constant as % GDP (2) Other spending constant as % GDP (3) TME constant in real terms TME1.82.42.8 Spending cut/increase over 2007 CSR (2005–06 terms) –£8½ bnNo change + £6½ bn Additional funding required (2005–06 terms) No change +£8½ bn+£15 bn Source: HM Treasury

16. Annual cost of different illustrative alternative scenarios TME as PBR (1) TME constant as % GDP (2) Other spending constant as % GDP (3) TME constant in real terms TME1.82.42.80.0 Spending cut/increase over 2007 CSR (2005–06 terms) –£8½ bnNo change + £6½ bn–£35½bn Additional funding required (2005–06 terms) No change +£8½ bn+£15 bn–£27 bn Source: HM Treasury

17. Public spending pressures Robert Chote Carl Emmerson Christine Frayne