1. Planning for Africa’s power sector Development Partners Perspective January 16, 2015 Abu Dhabi Demetrios Papathanasiou dpapathanasiou@worldbank.org

2. Total installed capacity 87 GW (2012) Only 31% of the population with access Universal electrification is decades (?) away Modern Energy consumption 1% of OECD levels* 80% of households rely on biomass for cooking 30 countries face regular interruption of services Interruptions cost 6% of turnover to the formal sector and as much as 16% to the informal sector State Owned Utilities inefficiencies cost 0.8% of GDP Africa’s Major Electricity Challenges

3.  Currently, about 1-2 GW of new installed capacity deployed a year. Africa needs 6-7 GW  Access growing no more than 1% per year in the last decade  At this rate, less than 60% of Africans will have electricity in their homes by 2030  Currently, $9-10 billion invested yearly to provide first access to modern energy  Africa needs up to $40-50 billion yearly for universal access by 2030 Financing shortfall of 80% Investments Needed Sub-regions Avg. Yearly Investment ($B) Cumulative Till 2020 ($B) Central Africa 6.552.0 East Africa 14.5116.0 Southern Africa 18.5148.0 Western Africa 10.584.0 Total 50.0400.0 Current Investment Trend Sub-regions Avg. Yearly Investment ($B) Cumulative Till 2020 ($B) World Bank 1.512.0 Other MDBs 1.512.0 Emerging Financiers 2.015.0 Private sector 5.041.0 Total 10.080.0 Challenge: Investment Gap 3

4. Why Planning is Important Tremendous needs to fulfill Energy Access aspirations Time pressure for service delivery Decision making – cumbersome and time consuming Long project cycles need to be shortened What if there is no plan?

5. Proper Planning Removes uncertainties on projects selection Builds consensus among stakeholders Facilitates financing – Provides confidence – Reduces processing time – Evaluation and appraisal is faster and effective – Accelerates service delivery

6. Better Planning Addresses Uncertainties is Dynamic – Updated every year – with major updates every 3-5 years Site and Resource specific Informs and is informed by Project Implementation

7. Thank you ! Demetrios Papathanasiou dpapathanasiou@worldbank.org