1. LBA-ECO Synthesis and Integration LBA-ECO SSC 14 November 2005

2. LBA-ECO 9 th Business Meeting Synthesis Leadership Groups –Five group leaders selected by NASA through proposals –One group induced by –Group meetings on Friday and Saturday –Brief reports by leaders These are not the exclusive areas for LBA- ECO synthesis.

3. LBA-ECO 9 th Business Meeting Synthesis Leaders –Define products –Assign tasks –Set deadlines Leaders reported –What, when, and by whom –Workshops dates

4. Synthesis Groups Forest Disturbance – Chambers/Higuchi *Fires & Drought – Cardinot/Brando/ (Nepstad) Intensive Agriculture – Steudler/Bustamante (Melillo) Scaling Carbon Fluxes – Saleska/Rocha/A. Nobre/Shimabokuru Land-Water Coupling – Richey/Krusche Land Use – Alves/Batistella (Moran)

5. LBA-ECO Synthesis: Forest Disturbance Leaders: Jeff Chambers, Niro Higuchi Topics: –Regional tree mortality evaluation –Remote sensing methods for disturbance –Modeling the consequences of disturbance Workshops: –June 2006, May 2007 Products: –Not yet defined

6. Tree Mortality Probability Distribution Function What is the spatial dimension to mortality events? The temporal and spatial distribution of mortality events at the landscape scale can have important control over regional carbon balance. What is the frequency of catastrophic events?

8. Relative Frequency Mortality event size (% of stem) 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Development of a PDF for all event size classes Probability Distribution Function Event ClassFine ScaleFine-Mid ScaleMid-ScaleLarge Scale SizeOne tree to 5% mortality5 to 50% mortality 50 to 100% and < 1 ha100% and > 1 ha MethodsForest Inventory PlotsIkonos, Quickbird HyperionLandsat ResearchersRAINFOR, LBA, othersPalaceChambers, AsnerAsner, Souza, Nelson, Roberts

9. Disturbance Effects on Carbon Dynamics in Amazon Forest: A Synthesis from Individual Trees to Landscapes Workshop 1 – Tulane University, New Orleans, Late June 2006 –(i) developing a consistent basin wide dataset of tree mortality dynamics from inventory plot data –(ii) exploring different remote sensing methods for detecting intermediate-scale (~0.1 to 5 ha) canopy gaps – e.g. blowdowns, selective logging. –(iii) comparing modeling approaches of forest response to gap disturbance Workshop 2 – Tulane University, New Orleans, Late May 2007 –(i) exploring a general forest response framework across the natural to anthropogenic disturbance gradient –(ii) comparing various remote sensing methods for detecting a range of disturbance types and processes –(iii) evaluating modeling approaches for simulating this disturbance gradient

10. LBA-ECO Synthesis: Fires and Drought Leaders: Gina Cardinot/Paulo Brando (Daniel Nepstad) Topics: (see following slide) Workshop Proposed: –February 2006 Products: –Synthesis paper on Acre Drought and Fire Emergency?

11. Extensive Burning of Forests and Open Areas in Southwestern Amazon of Brazil, Bolivia and Peru August – October 2005. Declarations of State of Emergency Rio Branco Cruzeiro do Sul Cobija Puerto Maldonado Pucallpa 100 km Riberalta ACRE/BR – STATE OF EMERGENCY PANDO/BO – STATE OF EMERGENCY MADRE DE DIOS/PE– STATE OF EMERGENCY BENI/BO – STATE OF EMERGENCY

12. Components: - Burned area quantification - Big fire detection - Biomass accumulation - Smoke = Health, Aerosols - Human dimensions - Hydrology - Climate data Synthesis of knowledge about droughts and fires in Amazonia: Case study of the 2005 drought and fire impacts on Acre

13. LBA-ECO Synthesis: Intensive Agriculture Leaders: Paul Steudler/Mercedes Bustamante (Jerry Melillo) Topics: (Wait for Editors Session) Workshops Proposed: –August 2006 – Revise Biogeochemistry and Case study chapters –June 2007 – Cross cutting chapters Expected Products: –Book: Recent Agricultural Transitions in the Amazon Basin and their Biogeochemical Consequences

14. LBA-ECO Synthesis: Land Water Coupling Leaders: Jeff Richey/Alex Krusche Topics: –Land-water coupling –Riverine carbon pools and fluxes –Effects of human influence and climate change Workshops Proposed: –March 2006 –March 2007 Expected Products:

15. PACH PAR JAU+ RG/FVA JUR MOJU COLLEAGUE SITES FP ZF2 MAO PAL AF RB JI-P BEL SGC REDE BEIJO RIO 1 o SITES Task 2. PROJECTS ND-31TG-30ND-11LC-31CD-33ND-30 LC-32 & Amigos

16. Workshop 1 : Land-Water Coupling March 2006 1.Refinement of synthetic questions 2.Delivery of cleaned data sets 3.Deadline for model readiness

17. Workshop 2 : Land-Water Coupling March 2007 4.Cross site analysis 5.Model analysis 6.Water resource integrated assessment, decision support framework tools 7.Jeffrey Richey guarantees completion by December 31, 2007.

18. LBA-ECO Synthesis: Scaling Carbon Fluxes Leaders: Scott Saleska, Antonio Nobre, Humberto da Rocha, Yosio Shimabokuru Topics: –Integrated eddy flux dataset –Model testing –Remote sensing extrapolation Workshops Proposed: –November 2006 at INPA Expected Products:

19. Caxiuana São Gabriel Cachoeira Sinop Scaling Carbon Fluxes with models and remote sensing Eddy flux data from a dozen towers spans: 1.5 – 3.5 m annual precip from 0  - 21  S from primary wet forest to Cerrado, including pasture and agricuture sites Goals for Data Cross-site comparisons of ecosystem properties parameterize and test models data-grounded extrapolations with remote sensing

20. EXAMPLE: Remote sensing Data (MODIS Enhanced Vegetation Index, EVI) shows that broad areas of Amazon forest “green up” in the dry season: Green-up region Brown-down region Source: Huete, Shimabukuro et al., (in review) Eddy flux tower site

21. Dry season Satellite & tower both show dry season “green-up” Satellite EVI (black squares) Primary Forest (average annual cycle, 6/2001-6/2004) 2001 2002 Converted land, monthly series (Pasture, then Farm after plowing) plowing Dry season brown -down pasture Rice farm EXAMPLE: Santarem region ground-test: satellite observations (MODIS EVI) vs. Tower-based GPP Tower GPP (kgC ha -1 mo -1 ) 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 JanAprJulOct 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 JanAprJulOctJanApr Month of average year Dry season (Sakai et al., 2004) (Saleska et al., 2003; Xiao et al 2005)

22. Humberto’s Problem BEFORE AFTER

23. LBA-ECO Synthesis: Leaders: Diogenes Alves, Mateus Batistella (Emilio Moran) Topics: –Scaling up of Para and Rondonia case studies –Synthesis of Human Dimensions research (to be refined…l) Workshops Proposed: –2006 (April to June) Belem + Course on Human Dimensions of LUCC –2007 (June to August) Manaus + Course on Human Dimensions of LUCC Expected Products: –Book or Special Issue for HD Synthesis

24. Participants and Resources Emilio Moran (IU), Mateus Batistella (EMBRAPA), Diogenes Alves (INPE), Eduardo S. Brondizio (IU), Dengsheng Lu (IU), Leah VanWey (IU), Flavio Luizao (INPA), Regina Luizao (INPA), Daniel Hogan (UNICAMP), Alvaro d’Antona (UNICAMP/IU), Larissa Chermont (UFPA) Draw on HD contacts and lessons from previous LBA/HD initiatives: * B.K. Becker’s survey of social/human sciences production * HD workshop in Ubatuba (May 2004): Diogenes Alves, Mateus Batistella, Bertha Becker (UFRJ), Eustaquio Reis (IPEA), Roberto Araújo (MPEG), Wanderley Costa (USP), Ademar Romeiro (UNICAMP), Paulo Egler (ABC), Francisco Costa (NAEA/ADA) + Tatiana Schor (UFAM)

26. Colonist Population Cohorts

27. Deforestation Rates

28. Concluding LBA ECO 20062007 2008 LBA Conference AGU LBA ECO 10 LBA ECO 11? Fire/Drought Land- Water Tree Mortality Agriculture Flux/Scaling Forest Disturbance Agriculture Land- Water HD LC