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P. Ñurmi / 15-05-2001 WWRP QPF Verification - Prague 1 Operational QPF Verification of End Products and NWP Pertti Nurmi Finnish Meteorological Institute.

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Presentation on theme: "P. Ñurmi / 15-05-2001 WWRP QPF Verification - Prague 1 Operational QPF Verification of End Products and NWP Pertti Nurmi Finnish Meteorological Institute."— Presentation transcript:

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2 P. Ñurmi / 15-05-2001 WWRP QPF Verification - Prague 1 Operational QPF Verification of End Products and NWP Pertti Nurmi Finnish Meteorological Institute WMO / WWRP QPF Verification Workshop, Prague, 14-16 May 2001

3 P. Ñurmi / 15-05-2001 WWRP QPF Verification - Prague 2 “State-of-the-Art” Operational Verification u Provide instant feedback to forecasters u Enable comparison of individual forecast(er)s vs. observations u Produce comprehensive statistics of the quality of End Products u Produce comprehensive statistics of guidance forecasts ( e.g. NWP) u Produce statistics of individual forecasters - personal biases etc. u Utilize a comprehensive set of tailored verification measures u Provide simplified verification statistics for the general public, the customers, the decision makers

4 P. Ñurmi / 15-05-2001 WWRP QPF Verification - Prague 3 Operational “online” Verification, Features Web user-interface for forecast input + visualization of results Running on a UNIX platform, interaction via Perl scripts Operational in real-time in the CFO and the 3 RO’s Covers all predicted End Product weather parameters: temperature, precipitation, cloudiness, wind Covers historical data of CFO End Products since 1979 NWP results (HIRLAM, ECMWF) included for comparison Input consistent with operational public / customer forecasts Used for official monitoring of the forecast quality of FMI

5 P. Ñurmi / 15-05-2001 WWRP QPF Verification - Prague 4 Present verification stations

6 P. Ñurmi / 15-05-2001 WWRP QPF Verification - Prague 5 Upcoming verification stations

7 P. Ñurmi / 15-05-2001 WWRP QPF Verification - Prague 6 NWP guidance End Product QPF production Verification

8 P. Ñurmi / 15-05-2001 WWRP QPF Verification - Prague 7 The integrated verification system Somewhat outdated ! Under re- construction !

9 P. Ñurmi / 15-05-2001 WWRP QPF Verification - Prague 8

10 P. Ñurmi / 15-05-2001 WWRP QPF Verification - Prague 9 PoP input Short-range

11 P. Ñurmi / 15-05-2001 WWRP QPF Verification - Prague 10 QPF input Short-medium-range

12 P. Ñurmi / 15-05-2001 WWRP QPF Verification - Prague 11

13 P. Ñurmi / 15-05-2001 WWRP QPF Verification - Prague 12

14 P. Ñurmi / 15-05-2001 WWRP QPF Verification - Prague 13

15 P. Ñurmi / 15-05-2001 WWRP QPF Verification - Prague 14 Note: Too little data to be applicable !

16 P. Ñurmi / 15-05-2001 WWRP QPF Verification - Prague 15

17 P. Ñurmi / 15-05-2001 WWRP QPF Verification - Prague 16 Official PoP verification: ROC score “hit calendar” time-series

18 P. Ñurmi / 15-05-2001 WWRP QPF Verification - Prague 17 Official PoP verification: “daily hit calendar”

19 P. Ñurmi / 15-05-2001 WWRP QPF Verification - Prague 18 Official PoP verification: ROC time-series

20 P. Ñurmi / 15-05-2001 WWRP QPF Verification - Prague 19

21 P. Ñurmi / 15-05-2001 WWRP QPF Verification - Prague 20

22 P. Ñurmi / 15-05-2001 WWRP QPF Verification - Prague 21

23 P. Ñurmi / 15-05-2001 WWRP QPF Verification - Prague 22 The integrated verification system Under some modification !

24 P. Ñurmi / 15-05-2001 WWRP QPF Verification - Prague 23 Application Development Pertti Ñurmi, Mika Heiskanen, Mikael Frisk Verification reports are produced: – Annually – Quarterly

25 P. Ñurmi / 15-05-2001 WWRP QPF Verification - Prague 24 Utilizing a comprehensive set of verification measures and statistics

26 P. Ñurmi / 15-05-2001 WWRP QPF Verification - Prague 25 Annual Report (a) Page 1 of handout Detailed examples of page information will follow, first - P o P forecasts PS: … there are ~ 100 pages in the annual reports

27 P. Ñurmi / 15-05-2001 WWRP QPF Verification - Prague 26 Annual P o P ; Ex. 1 or, rather, attributes diagram

28 P. Ñurmi / 15-05-2001 WWRP QPF Verification - Prague 27 Annual P o P ; Ex. 2

29 P. Ñurmi / 15-05-2001 WWRP QPF Verification - Prague 28 Annual P o P ; Ex. 3

30 P. Ñurmi / 15-05-2001 WWRP QPF Verification - Prague 29 Annual P o P ; Ex. 4 2 * 2

31 P. Ñurmi / 15-05-2001 WWRP QPF Verification - Prague 30 Annual Report (b) Page 2 of handout Detailed examples of page information will follow,... - Q P F (daily rainfall)

32 P. Ñurmi / 15-05-2001 WWRP QPF Verification - Prague 31 Annual Q P F ; Ex. 1 (Error distribution, various lead times)

33 P. Ñurmi / 15-05-2001 WWRP QPF Verification - Prague 32 Annual Q P F ; Ex. 2 (Contingency table, 3 *3)

34 P. Ñurmi / 15-05-2001 WWRP QPF Verification - Prague 33 Annual Q P F ; Ex. 3 (Stratification vs. frequency)

35 P. Ñurmi / 15-05-2001 WWRP QPF Verification - Prague 34 Annual Report (c) Page 3 of handout Detailed examples of page information will follow,... - Q P F (cont’d) (5-day accumulations)

36 P. Ñurmi / 15-05-2001 WWRP QPF Verification - Prague 35 Annual Q P F ; Ex. 4 (Stratification vs. temperature zone)

37 P. Ñurmi / 15-05-2001 WWRP QPF Verification - Prague 36 Annual Q P F ; Ex. 5 (Obs vs. fc time series)

38 P. Ñurmi / 15-05-2001 WWRP QPF Verification - Prague 37 Summer Report (a) Page 4 of handout Detailed examples of page information will follow, first - P o P PS: … there are ~ 50 pages in the quarterly reports

39 P. Ñurmi / 15-05-2001 WWRP QPF Verification - Prague 38 Summer P o P ; Ex. 1

40 P. Ñurmi / 15-05-2001 WWRP QPF Verification - Prague 39 Summer P o P ; Ex. 2

41 P. Ñurmi / 15-05-2001 WWRP QPF Verification - Prague 40 Summer Report (b) Page 5 of handout Detailed examples of page information will follow,... - Q P F

42 P. Ñurmi / 15-05-2001 WWRP QPF Verification - Prague 41 Summer Q P F ; Ex.

43 P. Ñurmi / 15-05-2001 WWRP QPF Verification - Prague 42 Operational QPF Verification of End Products and NWP The end of the story by Pertti Nurmi

44 P. Ñurmi / 15-05-2001 WWRP QPF Verification - Prague 43 Hypothesis: The quality of End Products is expected to increase gradually after implementation of an Operational “online” Verification System … unless you’re re-organizing the Weather Service - like FMI, 1996 “Percent correct” forecasts

45 P. Ñurmi / 15-05-2001 WWRP QPF Verification - Prague 44 Hypothesis: The quality of End Products is expected to increase gradually after implementation of an Operational “online” Verification System … returning back to normal life with the best score ever “Percent correct” forecasts

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