1. Agenda Admin Observational studies and others Why education? The progressives and centralization

2. The challenge of methods What’s the problem? We want to know if an educational policy causes an outcome: -Does attending a private school make you more likely to go to college? -Is phonics more effective than other instructional methods? -Does smaller class size/charter schools/tutoring increase test scores? -Does level of centralization of the educational system matter?

4. What’s the solution? Experiments (randomization) Quasi-experiments: – Regression discontinuity designs – Instrumental variables – Difference in differences Propensity scores Virtual twins

5. Reading a regression table

6. Questions What are the: Independent variables Dependent variable (what is the effect of the treatment on?) What are the underlying regression equations whose coefficients are being evaluated? Column 1 What is the average score for a student not in a small class? What is the average score for a student in a small class? Are the coefficients statistically significant? Column 2 What is the average score for a female, Asian student on a free-lunch program not in a small class? What is the conceptual difference of the results in Column 2 with the results observed in Column 1? Are the results statistically significant?

7. Pritchett paradox Education is the most powerful weapon which you can use to change the world. --Nelson Mandela BUT… “No associations between increases in human capital and (per worker) rates of growth” --Lant Pritchett Pritchett, L. (2003): Where has all the education gone?

8. Source: Pritchett, L. (2001) “Where has all the education gone?”

9. Explanations Quality not captured High diversity of environments: – Institutional environment of education/of production – Increased supply leads to less returns – Skills matching

10. Middle schools