1. Car Ownership in Singapore Fu Haidong Lin Di Lin Yingnan Qin Shuang Zhang Qi

2. Have you ever encounter this ? Or..this ?

3. Introduction There are approximately 511,125 private cars in Singapore by year 2010 Private car population has shown an average annual increase rate of 4.24% over the past 10 years.

5. Congestion Longer waiting and trip timeDelay for work and studyStress on drivers and passengersLower productivityLess foreign investorsHinder economic development

6. Pollution Air pollution Noise pollution. Endanger people’s life

7. Problem definition : Fast growing number of car ownerships results in large number of private cars on the road, which will further cause serious problems such as congestion and pollution Objective : Analyze the current car ownership system in Singapore Propose policies Reduce the current growth rate of car ownership.

8. Outline Methodology and formulation Model Build Result and Sensitivity analysis Policy Conclusion

9. COE system in Singapore Bidding for COE Start Scrap or export the car with financial incentive Year 10 Certificate of Entitlement Released twice a month with limited quota Five categories Valid for 10 years Bidders indicate their reserved price Highest bidders stay within the quota will get COEs. People intend to buy car Buying the car All kinds of payment What is COE?How to bid for COE?

10. Specification of our study Target on category A and B of COE Study period: from 2000 to 2050. Simulation on yearly basis

11. Methodology Formulation Model Building Result Analysis Identification of factors Examining relationships Represent in CLD iThink Data Converter Stock and Flow

12. Formulation - Causal Loop Diagram car population private car population growth rate planned by LTA Annual COE quota bidding success rate number of new bids COE price total expense of car public transport attractiveness COE valid period + - + + + - + + - - - B B

13. Model Building - Stock and Flow Diagram Total no. of cars Disposal per year New purchase per year New COE per year Actual COE for first 10 years Projected COE after 10 years COE quota Car ownership net increase rate Discrepancy between desired & actual growth rate Max allowable net increase rate Effect of discrepancy on COE growth rate Modified COE growth rate Reference COE growth rate Effect of no. of bids on COE growth rate Disposal rate for first 10 years Delayed disposal rate COE valid period Perceived discrepancy

14. S&F: Actual COE for First 10 Years Back

16. success rate perceived success rate COE price population growth ratio nominal new bidsreference population populationeffect of perceived success rate on number of new bids perceived annual expense effect of perceived annual expense on number of new bids perceived public transport convenience relative public transport affordability public transport availability base new bidsprobability of withdrawal modified COE growth rate reference COE growth rate effect of number of bids on COE growth rate effect of discrepancy on COE growth rate equivalent annual expense

17. Yingnan’s part

18. Policies Policy 1: Tighter control on maximum net growth rate of car ownership Policy 2: Improve public transport efficiency Policy 3: Reduce the lifetime of COE

19. Car ownership net increase rate Maximum allowable net increase rate Discrepancy between desired and actual car ownership growth rate Perceived discrepancy Effect of discrepancy on COE growth rate Net COE per year COE quota Modified COE growth rate Policy 1:Tighter control on maximum net growth rate of car ownership How does it work?

20. Policy 1:Tighter control on maximum net growth rate of car ownership Current situation

21. Policy 1:Tighter control on maximum net growth rate of car ownership What is the difference?difference

22. Policy 1:Tighter control on maximum net growth rate of car ownership Reduce the car ownership by about 600,000

23. Policy 2: Improve Public Transport Efficiency Increase average bus capacity from 100 to 150 by having more double-decker buses Increase the bus growth rate 360 to 720 Reduce average bus fare from $2 to $0.5

24. Bus Net bus increase rate Average bus capacity Actual bus number increase rate for first 10 years Populatio n Public transport availability Estimated bus number increase rate after 10 years Increase Average Bus Capacity and Bus Growth Rate How does it work?

25. Average usage of bus per year Average bus fareNormalizing factor for public transport affordability Equivalent annual expense Relative public transport affordability Reduce Average Bus Fare How does it work?

26. Total number of bids received New bidders for COE Public transport availability Relative public transport affordability Perceived public transport convenience Policy 2: Improve Public Transport Efficiency How does it work?

27. Policy 2: Improve Public Transport Efficiency Reduce the car ownership by about 400,000

28. Disposal per year Delayed disposal rate Lifetime of COE Car ownership New purchase per year Policy 3: Reduce the lifetime of COE from 10 years to 5 years How does it work?

29. Policy 3: Reduce the lifetime of COE from 10 years to 5 years Reduce the car ownership by about 100,000

30. Conclusion Limitation of policiesA combination of policies can be usedLimitation of our research

31. The EndThank You !

32. Policy 1:Tighter control on maximum net growth rate of car ownership

37. equivalent annual expense disposal priceone-off paymentCOE valid periodtotal annual cost One off paymentGSTAverage Open Market Value of a car Total vehicle Tax GST rateExercise dutyAdditional registration fee Registration fee Exercise duty as % of OMV ARF as % of OMV