1. “ “War is politics…” Carl von Clausewitz (1780-1831) War in HistoryWar in HistoryWar in HistoryWar in History

2. Why War? Resources Territory –Land –Access to the sea Ethnicity Religion Ideology

3. Major War EventFromToLow High Warring States Era, China BC 475 BC 221 10 m An Shi Rebellion, China 756763 36 m Mongol Conquests, Europe, Asia 12071279 30 m 60 m Thirty Years War 16181648 3 m 11.5 m Napoleonic Wars 18041815 3.5 m 16 m Taiping Rebellion, China 18511864 20 m 50 m US Civil War 18611865 618,00 0 970,000 Russian Civil War 191719215m 9 m WW I (high includes Spanish Flu) 19141918 15 m 66 m

4. More Major War Chinese Civil War 19451949 1.3 m 6. 1 m 6. 1 m WW II 19391945 60 m 72 m Viet Nam War 19451975 2.5 m 5 m Korean War 19501953 2.5 m 3.5 m Nigerian Civil War 19671970 1 m Afghan Civil War 1979Present 1.5 m 2.0 m Iran-Iraq War 19801988 1.0 m Congo Civil War 19941997800,000800,000 Second Congo War 199820033.8m13.8

5. Causes of War and Peace 1.Human Nature 2.Balance of power 3.Power Transition/Long Cycle 4.Nuclear Revolution 5.Interdependence 6.Democratic Peace

6. 1. Human Nature? Thomas Hobbes 1588-1679Thomas Hobbes 1588-1679 Jean-Jacques Rousseau 1712-1788 1712-1788

7. London 1940

8. Stalingrad 1943

9. Berlin 1945

10. Tokyo 1945

11. Warsaw 1945

12. Bergen-Belson

13. Hiroshima

14. 2. Balance of Power Concert of Europe 1815-1914 England Russia Prussia/Germany France Austria Hungary

15. Bipolarity The Cold War Balance of Power IsraelSyria/Egypt EthiopiaSomalia TaiwanChina S. KoreaN. Korea S. Viet NamN. Viet Nam W. BerlinE. Berlin W. GermanyE. Germany Britain/France/JapanPoland/Czech USUSSR

16. 3. Long Cycle Theory (Power Transition) Hegemonic War Winner becomes Hegemon Hegemon rules system Hegemo n weakens Challenger Rises

17. Long Cycle Four: 1792-1914 Power DominanceDecline War EnglandWW I begins 1792-18151850 1914 1792-18151850 1914 Napoleonic Warsdecine begins Napoleonic Warsdecine begins Time Time

18. Long Cycle Five: 1914-? PowerPower DominanceDecline War U.S.US v. China? War U.S.US v. China? 1914-19451973 decline 20?? 1914-19451973 decline 20?? begins beginsTime Source for Cycles 1-4: George Modelski, Long Cycles in World Politics, Seattle, University of Washington Press, 1987.Source for Cycles 1-4: George Modelski, Long Cycles in World Politics, Seattle, University of Washington Press, 1987.

19. 4. Nuclear Revolution HiroshimaNagasakiHiroshimaNagasaki

20. The Problems? North Korea: Three nuclear tests –October 9, 2006 –May 25, 2009 –February 12, 2013 Iran: No tests yet, but –2007 US National Intelligence EstimateUS National Intelligence Estimate –2013 IAEA ReportIAEA Report –2013 BBC AnalysisBBC Analysis

21. Irrationality? Saddam Hussein Ahmadinejad Kim Jong-UnSaddam Hussein Ahmadinejad Kim Jong-Un

22. 5. Interdependence World Peace?

23. World Peace? Wal-Mart China Wal-Mart China

24. Welcome to China

25. Welcome to the US

26. Welcome to New York

27. 6. Democratization Map of World Democracies from Freedom HouseMap of World Democracies from Freedom HouseMap of World Democracies Map of World Democracies Democracies don’t fight each otherDemocracies don’t fight each other But democracies do fight othersBut democracies do fight others

28. Emerging Democracies? Hitler, Tojo, MilosevicHitler, Tojo, Milosevic