1. William F. Fox, Director Center for Business and Economic Research The University of Tennessee, Knoxville The Economy Continues to Grow in 2015, Tax Revenues will Slow Academic Leadership Conference

2. William F. Fox Center for Business and Economic Research http://cber.bus.utk.edu 2

3. 3 DILBERT by SCOTT ADAMS

4.  Volatility in commodity and equity prices  Greece  And then, Italy, Ireland, Spain  China ◦ Yuan devaluation ◦ Slowdown in real economy ◦ Equity market collapse  Oil Prices  Fed Rate Hike William F. Fox Center for Business and Economic Research http://cber.bus.utk.edu 4

5. 5

6. 6

7. 7

8. 8

9. 9

10. 10

11. William F. Fox Center for Business and Economic Research http://cber.bus.utk.edu 11

12. 12 William F. Fox Center for Business and Economic Research http://cber.bus.utk.edu

13. 13 * William F. Fox Center for Business and Economic Research http://cber.bus.utk.edu

14. 14 *Sales-taxing states only.

15. William F. Fox Center for Business and Economic Research http://cber.bus.utk.edu 15

16. Corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments. William F. Fox Center for Business and Economic Research http://cber.bus.utk.edu 16

17. William F. Fox Center for Business and Economic Research http://cber.bus.utk.edu 17

18. William F. Fox Center for Business and Economic Research http://cber.bus.utk.edu 18 Source: FixTheDebt.org

19. William F. Fox Center for Business and Economic Research http://cber.bus.utk.edu 19

20. William F. Fox Center for Business and Economic Research http://cber.bus.utk.edu 20

21. William F. Fox Center for Business and Economic Research http://cber.bus.utk.edu 21

22. William F. Fox Center for Business and Economic Research http://cber.bus.utk.edu 22

23. William F. Fox Center for Business and Economic Research http://cber.bus.utk.edu 23

24. William F. Fox Center for Business and Economic Research http://cber.bus.utk.edu 24

25. William F. Fox Center for Business and Economic Research http://cber.bus.utk.edu 25

26. William F. Fox Center for Business and Economic Research http://cber.bus.utk.edu 26

27. William F. Fox Center for Business and Economic Research http://cber.bus.utk.edu 27

28. William F. Fox Center for Business and Economic Research http://cber.bus.utk.edu 28 U.S. =10.5% Tennessee = 8.4% Less than 8.4% -- 1 -- 8.4% to 10.5% -- 33 -- Greater than 10.5% -- 16 --

29. William F. Fox Center for Business and Economic Research http://cber.bus.utk.edu 29 Tax Revenues (in millions)

30. William F. Fox Center for Business and Economic Research http://cber.bus.utk.edu 30 Tennessee Total State Tax Collections by Source, Annual 2014

31. TaxElasticity Sales Tax0.60 Gasoline0.03 Franchise & Excise1.04 Mixed Drink1.35 Total0.67 William F. Fox Center for Business and Economic Research http://cber.bus.utk.edu 31

32. William F. Fox Center for Business and Economic Research http://cber.bus.utk.edu 32

33. William F. Fox Center for Business and Economic Research http://cber.bus.utk.edu 33

34. William F. Fox Center for Business and Economic Research http://cber.bus.utk.edu 34

35. William F. Fox Center for Business and Economic Research http://cber.bus.utk.edu 35 Source: State Tax Notes, Mikesell.

36. William F. Fox Center for Business and Economic Research http://cber.bus.utk.edu 36

37.  Gift tax  Inheritance tax  Lower rate for food  Elimination of the Hall Income Tax  On the other hand, higher fuel taxes? William F. Fox Center for Business and Economic Research http://cber.bus.utk.edu 37

38. William F. Fox Center for Business and Economic Research http://cber.bus.utk.edu 38 *Estimated **Appropriated

39. William F. Fox Center for Business and Economic Research http://cber.bus.utk.edu 39 *Estimated **Appropriated

40. William F. Fox Center for Business and Economic Research http://cber.bus.utk.edu 40

41. William F. Fox Center for Business and Economic Research http://cber.bus.utk.edu 41

42. William F. Fox Center for Business and Economic Research http://cber.bus.utk.edu 42

43. William F. Fox Center for Business and Economic Research http://cber.bus.utk.edu 43