1. Sustainability at MSL: Slide 1 Materials Systems Laboratory Massachusetts Institute of Technology Department of Materials Science & Engineering Engineering Systems Division Realizing Sustainable Nanotechnology Thoughts on Research Needs Randolph Kirchain MIT Materials Systems Laboratory http://msl.mit.edu

2. Sustainability at MSL : Slide 2 Materials Systems Laboratory Massachusetts Institute of Technology Department of Materials Science & Engineering Engineering Systems Division Critical Questions and Other Issues Materials Availability –Are there sufficient quantities of low availability materials (e.g. In, Te) readily available for producing nanostructured devices and products on a large scale? Promising Candidates –Are there certain nanotechnological products or systems that should be encouraged as replacements for current systems because the benefits are large in comparison to the potential environmental impacts? Other issues –Data availability –Workforce Capacity

3. Sustainability at MSL : Slide 3 Materials Systems Laboratory Massachusetts Institute of Technology Department of Materials Science & Engineering Engineering Systems Division Question 1: Materials Availability / Scarcity Basic answer –We won’t run out of anything Don’t worry, be happy? Unfortunately, we aren’t so lucky Scarcity occurs when: –We don’t have anymore –Total cost to extract exceeds market value - We use more - Prices go up - We use less - We switch to other resources Will we run out of key raw materials for nanotechnology?

4. Sustainability at MSL : Slide 4 Materials Systems Laboratory Massachusetts Institute of Technology Department of Materials Science & Engineering Engineering Systems Division Question 1: Scarcity Basic answer –We won’t run out of anything Don’t worry, be happy? Unfortunately, we aren’t so lucky Scarcity occurs when: –We don’t have anymore –Total cost to extract exceeds market value - We use more - Prices go up - We use less - We switch to other resources Will we run out of key raw materials for nanotechnology?

5. Sustainability at MSL : Slide 5 Materials Systems Laboratory Massachusetts Institute of Technology Department of Materials Science & Engineering Engineering Systems Division Details of the Societal Scarcity Argument, But What about Local Impacts? Scarcity occurs when: Total cost to extract exceeds market value Isn’t this a problem? –NO: Don’t forget about the power of Technology Efficiency Substitution –YES: Some things can’t be substituted Basic life needs (e.g., water) Environmental services Assuming that nanotech impact is –Net positive or –Small relative change… Don’t worry, be happy? Unfortunately, we aren’t so lucky Even if effects of scarcity don’t adversely effect societal welfare … … local effects can be significant

6. Sustainability at MSL : Slide 6 Materials Systems Laboratory Massachusetts Institute of Technology Department of Materials Science & Engineering Engineering Systems Division A Historic Example of Local Impacts from Materials Constraint: Cobalt in the Late 1970’s Zaire compared to World in 1977 –Population0.04% –GDP0.09% –Cobalt resources 40% Small scale rebellion in 1977 led to: –Short term constraint –Global speculation Sources: Adelman, K. L. R. Afr. Soc. 1978, v77. Blechman and Sloss. National Security and Strategic Minerals, 1985. Canadian Minerals Yearbook 1886-2004. and USGS Mineral Yearbook and Mineral Commodity Summary 1932-2006,

7. Sustainability at MSL : Slide 7 Materials Systems Laboratory Massachusetts Institute of Technology Department of Materials Science & Engineering Engineering Systems Division Outcomes from Cobalt Crisis: Some Transitory, Some Permanent Supply constraint led to price increase that led to changes in.. –Operations Recycling Stockpiling –Technology Process efficiency Materials substitution –Geography Supply relocation Even though price changes were temporary, effects to firms were permanent Research Questions –Can we identify supply chains that are at risk? –How should a firm respond to such a risk? Primary Outcome: Price Increase

8. Sustainability at MSL : Slide 8 Materials Systems Laboratory Massachusetts Institute of Technology Department of Materials Science & Engineering Engineering Systems Division Simple metrics provide insight, but do not capture interrelated aspects of materials use Screening for Risk

9. Sustainability at MSL : Slide 9 Materials Systems Laboratory Massachusetts Institute of Technology Department of Materials Science & Engineering Engineering Systems Division An Example of a Simple Risk Metric Institutional inefficiency: Geographic Concentration Screening for Risk Sources: Mineral Yearbook and Mineral Commodity Summaries 2007.

10. Sustainability at MSL : Slide 10 Materials Systems Laboratory Massachusetts Institute of Technology Department of Materials Science & Engineering Engineering Systems Division Can We Identify Materials at Risk? Simple Metrics Fall Short, Models Provide Novel Insights Simple metrics –provide some insight –do not capture interrelated aspects of materials use Modeling materials system provides insight into –sources of risk –impact of strategies to address it

11. Sustainability at MSL : Slide 11 Materials Systems Laboratory Massachusetts Institute of Technology Department of Materials Science & Engineering Engineering Systems Division Model-based Conclusion: Value of Recycling as a fast-responding supply High Levels of Recycling in Platinum Materials System –Reduces use of primary supply - slows down ore degradation –Stabilizes inventory of metal and hence price –Reduces supply chain risk Derived from data in: International Aluminium Institute: Life Cycle Assessment of Aluminium, March 2003

12. Sustainability at MSL : Slide 12 Materials Systems Laboratory Massachusetts Institute of Technology Department of Materials Science & Engineering Engineering Systems Division Preliminary Results Show Economic Benefits of Recycling Model results indicate that a system with significant recycling –Experiences less significant price effects from supply disruption –Recovers more quickly from supply disruption –Lowers downstream Materials expenditure Risk

13. Sustainability at MSL : Slide 13 Materials Systems Laboratory Massachusetts Institute of Technology Department of Materials Science & Engineering Engineering Systems Division Research Needs on Materials Availability Supply –Characterization of available resources –Technology and economics of extraction Current and future expansion Production –Consumption per unit of product delivered Market –Expected demand –Price elasticity Recovery –Technical and economic potential Substitutes

14. Sustainability at MSL : Slide 14 Materials Systems Laboratory Massachusetts Institute of Technology Department of Materials Science & Engineering Engineering Systems Division Question 2: Promising Candidates Products that… –Meet basic human needs Clean water Food –Involve the Use of toxics –Create most burden during the use phase Efficient transport, electronics, lighting Reduced need for water transport and/or hot water What applications should be encouraged because the potential net benefits are large?

15. Sustainability at MSL : Slide 15 Materials Systems Laboratory Massachusetts Institute of Technology Department of Materials Science & Engineering Engineering Systems Division When Identifying Promising Candidates Life-Cycle Perspective is Critical: Common LC Hotspots Materials Production DevelopmentManufactureAssemblyUse Recovery / Recycling Extraction Use

16. Sustainability at MSL : Slide 16 Materials Systems Laboratory Massachusetts Institute of Technology Department of Materials Science & Engineering Engineering Systems Division Other Issue 1: Data Availability / Data Quality Everyone (who hasn’t previously worked on LCA) …Overestimates data availability …Underestimates the cost of data collection –Although we have made tremendous progress, quality data is scarce for all forms of LCA Franklin ETH Ecoinvent IDEMAT Current databases –Largely point estimates (or are treated as such) –Incompletely documented –Not regularly updated Current databases –Largely point estimates (or are treated as such) –Incompletely documented –Not regularly updated International Primary Aluminium Institute: LCI of the Worldwide Aluminium Industry with Regard to Energy Consumption…, May 2000 Database values: Aluminum 0% recycled ETH U. PRe Consultants, Aluminum, primary, liquid, at plant; www.ecoinvent.ch. Aluminum ingots I; IDEMAT 2001, Aluminum can, FAL; Franklin Associates.

17. Sustainability at MSL : Slide 17 Materials Systems Laboratory Massachusetts Institute of Technology Department of Materials Science & Engineering Engineering Systems Division Other Issue 2: Workforce Capacity Knowledge gaps are not the only issue that holds back environmentally conscious design Real need for more –LCA specialist –LCA knowledgeable Product designers Process designers Courtesy: S Fredholm, PE Americas

18. Sustainability at MSL : Slide 18 Materials Systems Laboratory Massachusetts Institute of Technology Department of Materials Science & Engineering Engineering Systems Division Other Issue 2: Workforce Capacity Knowledge gaps are not the only issue that holds back environmentally conscious design Real need for more –LCA specialist –LCA knowledgeable Product designers Process designers Courtesy: S Fredholm, PE Americas