1. NORWEGIAN SCHOOL OF MANAGEMENT Climate post COP 15 in a Limits to Growth perspective Climate post COP 15 in a Limits to Growth perspective Jorgen Randers Professor Center for Climate Strategy Norwegian School of Management BI The 2010 Peder Sather Symposium Brower Center, Berkeley April 15, 2010

2. NORWEGIAN SCHOOL OF MANAGEMENT  What did The Limits to Growth study say in 1972?  What has happened since?  What is the current situation (in LTG perspective)?  What should be done – immediately?  What should be done in the longer run?  Better to try than to give up Overview

3. NORWEGIAN SCHOOL OF MANAGEMENT 12 scenarios for the 21 st century

4. NORWEGIAN SCHOOL OF MANAGEMENT 19001950200020502100 0 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 Year 5: Nonrenewable resources 3: Industrial output 4: Pollution level 2: Food output 1: Population Limits Scenario 1: Business as usual Source: Meadows, Randers and Meadows, LTG 30 year update, 2004

5. NORWEGIAN SCHOOL OF MANAGEMENT The world is small

6. NORWEGIAN SCHOOL OF MANAGEMENT Decision making takes time COP 15 meeting in December 2009

7. NORWEGIAN SCHOOL OF MANAGEMENT Collapse does occur Source: GRID Arendal, Planet in Peril, 2004 Canadian catch of cod 1850 – 2003 (tons per year)

8. NORWEGIAN SCHOOL OF MANAGEMENT LTG scenarios vs 30 years of data Source: Graham Turner, WP 2008-09, CSIRO, Sydney, June 2008

9. NORWEGIAN SCHOOL OF MANAGEMENT LTG scenarios vs 30 years of data Source: Graham Turner, WP 2008-09, CSIRO, Sydney, June 2008

10. NORWEGIAN SCHOOL OF MANAGEMENT The human ecological footprint 1961 – 03 PLANET EARTH CROPLAND FOREST GRAZING LAND FISHING GROUNDS ENERGY BUILT- UP LAND NUCLEAR ENERGY Source: Living Planet Report, WWF, 2006

11. NORWEGIAN SCHOOL OF MANAGEMENT Human CO 2 emissions and its effect 400 300 200 100 0 Concentration in ppm Emissions in GtCo2/yr)

12. NORWEGIAN SCHOOL OF MANAGEMENT Source: Jim Hansen, Climate threat to the Planet, Oslo 2009 Temperature is going up Global average ocean and land

13. NORWEGIAN SCHOOL OF MANAGEMENT Source: www.theoildrum.com/tag/update Approaching peak oil?

14. NORWEGIAN SCHOOL OF MANAGEMENT Decision making takes time COP 15 meeting in December 2009

15. NORWEGIAN SCHOOL OF MANAGEMENT Human CO 2 emissions – necessary cut 2050 2100 SUSTAINABLE ?

16. NORWEGIAN SCHOOL OF MANAGEMENT Increased energy efficiency (yellow) More renewable energy (blue+green) Source: Climate Solutions, WWF International, 2007 2 % per year growth in energy use WWF solution in 2007 (+forest protection) Carbon capture and storage (brown)

17. NORWEGIAN SCHOOL OF MANAGEMENT Faster decision-making? President Hu speaking in the great halll 2009

18. What to do? An end to overshoot through managed decline Source: Mathis Wackernagel, 2010 BAU Towards sustainability Overshoot

19. NORWEGIAN SCHOOL OF MANAGEMENT Source: World Bank, Commodities at the Crossroads, 2009 Technology is advancing

20. NORWEGIAN SCHOOL OF MANAGEMENT 0 5 10 15 1950200020502100 China Industrial world Rest of world 2025: China starts cutting 5 %/yr 2010: Industrial world starts cutting 5 %/yr 2035: Rest of world starts cutting 5 %/yr Per capita emissions (tCO 2 per person-yr) Proposed burden sharing (tCO 2 /person-yr) Source: Bjart Holtsmark, Statistics Norway.

21. NORWEGIAN SCHOOL OF MANAGEMENT 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 1950197520002025205020752100 GtCO2 per year China Industrial world Rest of world Total emissions (GtCO 2 /yr - per region) Source: Bjart Holtsmark, Statistics Norway.

22. NORWEGIAN SCHOOL OF MANAGEMENT Source: Clark et al, Journal of Economic Literature 2008, 46:1 Incomes grow, but not happiness Data for the United States 1973 - 2004

23. NORWEGIAN SCHOOL OF MANAGEMENT Better to try than to give up! jorgen.randers@bi.no