1. FTA’s Transit Economic Requirements Model (TERM)
John D. Giorgis Federal Transit Administration Director, Office of Strategic Planning

2. Transit Economic Requirements Model (TERM)
TERM assesses the current physical condition of the nation’s transit assets and long-term investment needs to achieve different targets
FTA’s national-level capital needs analysis tool
Designed for analysis of:
State of Good Repair (SGR) backlog
Average asset conditions
20-year reinvestment & expansion needs
Impact of different funding levels
Impact of Cost/Benefit criteria
Asset life expectancy

3. How Does TERM Lite Work? Investment Policy Asset Inventory
Asset conditions and quantities
Cost to replace
Asset Inventory
When to rehab & replace
Funding
Priorities
Investment Policy
SGR backlog
Asset conditions
Reinvestment needs
Prioritized plan
SGR Forecast
What do I own & what condition is it in?
What are my potential backlog, condition and performance outcomes?
What would I like to do, how much funding do I have, what are my priorities?

4. TERM Asset Database Includes All Asset Types
Stations / Facilities
Transportation
Networks
Administration
Maintenance
Passenger
Guideway
Track
Dedicated Lanes
Transit Asset Database
Vehicle
Fleets
Systems
Rail
Buses / Vans /
Non-Revenue
Electrification
Communications
Control Systems
Equipment / Furnishings
New Technologies
NTD data
Maintenance Equip.
Computers
Elevators / Escalators
- AVL / CAD / APC
Real Time Info

5. Decay Curves: Asset Condition vs. Age
Condition from onsite inspections plotted against age
Rating criteria defined for more than 40 bus components
Use condition as the definition for end of useful life

6. Expected Life using Condition 2.5 Threshold
SGR Backlog

7. Capital Reinvestment Needs Forecast - SGR Backlog
Evaluate reinvestment backlog and out-year replacement needs
$77.7 B backlog $14.4 B average
= 5.4 years behind

8. TERM Lite TERM vs. TERM Lite
Capability
TERM
TERM-Lite
Level of Analysis
National
Local / Regional
Intended User Group
FTA
Local operators
Life Cycle Driver
Condition (estimated)
Age
Prioritization
Benefit-cost analysis
User defined criteria
Output Format
Access Tables
Excel
Output (current and forecast)
SGR backlog
Asset conditions
20-yr reinvestment needs
TERM for local or regional transit agencies
Well-documented and user friendly, training is available
For local long-term capital planning analysis
MS Access application
Free through FTA
Comparable to HERS-St

9. TERM Lite: Support for Capital Planning
TERM Lite Capabilities
Function
Question Addressed
TERM Output
SGR Monitoring
Where are we today?
Current SGR backlog
Asset conditions
SGR Management (“What if” Analysis)
Where can I be tomorrow?
Is backlog increasing / decreasing?
What level of investment to attain SGR in 10 years? 20 years?
How will change in backlog impact service reliability? O&M Costs?
Long-Term Capital Plan Support
How should I prioritize limited investment dollars?
Multi-criteria prioritization rankings
Long term SGR plan

10. Excel Export: Performance Forecast
Metrics provide performance implications of alternative prioritizations and expenditure levels

11. Questions? John D. Giorgis Federal Transit Administration
Director, Office of Strategic Planning