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- 1 - LIfeCycle Returns, Inc. © 2004 All Rights Reserved COMPARATIVE ACCURACY AND PREDICTIVE CAPABILITY OF LCRT AND FORMER MODELS By Rawley Thomas President LifeCycle Returns, Inc. February 20, 2004 Rawley@LCRT.com
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- 2 - LIfeCycle Returns, Inc. © 2004 All Rights Reserved Comparative Accuracy of LCRT and Former Models 2-20-04 Rt LCRT’S RESEARCH MODEL IMPROVES ON FORMER MODELS WITHOUT ENHANCEMENTS AND OVERRIDES BY 13.7% (=100% (53.9/47.4 -1)) Cumulative % of Universe LOG 2 of % Absolute Model Error versus Actual Price – Fiscal Year + 3 Months 1994-2002 47 54 Sources: Financial Statements and Price Data – Simplystocks Calculations - LCRT’s Platform Constant Dollar Gross Investment > $100 Million, 1994-2002
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- 3 - LIfeCycle Returns, Inc. © 2004 All Rights Reserved Comparative Accuracy of LCRT and Former Models 2-20-04 Rt LCRT PERFORMS BETTER THAN FORMER MODELS WITHOUT ENHANCEMENTS AND OVERRIDES TO SEPARATE “WINNERS” FROM “LOSERS” Sources: Financial Statements and Price Data – Simplystocks Calculations - LCRT’s Platform Constant Dollar Gross Investment > $100 Million, Panel Data from 1994-2002
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- 4 - LIfeCycle Returns, Inc. © 2004 All Rights Reserved Comparative Accuracy of LCRT and Former Models 2-20-04 Rt LCRT PERFORMS 2.6% BETTER THAN FORMER MODELS WITHOUT ENHANCEMENTS AND OVERRIDES TO SEPARATE “WINNERS” FROM “LOSERS” Sources: Financial Statements and Price Data – Simplystocks Calculations - LCRT’s Platform Constant Dollar Gross Investment > $100 Million, 1994-2002
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- 5 - LIfeCycle Returns, Inc. © 2004 All Rights Reserved Comparative Accuracy of LCRT and Former Models 2-20-04 Rt COMPARISON OF LCRT RESEARCH AND FORMER MODELS WITHOUT ENHANCEMENTS AND OVERRIDES LCRT RESEARCH CER Fade-To based on 7 Year Past Median of Firms with Current Dollar Gross Investment > 100 $Million 45% CER Fade Rate, 50% Growth Fade Rate, 40% Sustainability Factor, 10% CER Momentum Market Derived Discount Rate related to leverage, inventory asset mix, and depreciating asset mix X plant life Excessive growth rates limited to -15% to +20% by arc-tangent function FORMER MODELS CER Fade-To based on long term CER for aggregate of large firms 10% CER Fade Rate, 10% Growth Fade Rate, 0% Sustainability Factor, 0% CER Momentum Market Derived Discount Rate related to leverage No limit on excessive growth rates
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