1. USGS, Denver, Colorado USA
PRMS/MMS: A Model and Modeling Framework for Use in Water- and Environmental-Resources Management
George Leavesley
USGS, Denver, Colorado USA

2. Overview PRMS MMS Focus Areas in Model Development Summary
Model Processes
Toolbox
Summary

3. PRMS

4. PRMS Features Modular Design Deterministic Distributed Parameter
Daily and Storm Mode
User Modifiable

5. Distributed Parameter Approach
Hydrologic Response Units - HRUs
HRU Delineation Based on:
- Slope Aspect
- Elevation Vegetation
- Soil Precip Distribution

6. HRU DELINEATION AND CHARACTERIZATION
Grid Cell Hydrologic Response Units (HRUs)
Polygon Hydrologic Response Units (HRUs)

7. PRMS -- HRU Delineation
Topographic
Pixelated

8. CASCADING FLOW PLANES Overland Flow Path Channel Segment1 2 3 1 7 8
Overland Flow Path 10 9 1
Channel Segment 3
Channel Junction 4 3 6 2
Overland Flow Plane 2 4
width
Grass/Agriculture
Bare Ground/Rock 5 12 11
Trees
length
Shrubs

9. The Modular Modeling System (MMS) An integrated system of computer software developed to:
Provide a common framework for model development and operational applications
Facilitate the integration of multi-disciplinary modeling approaches for use in addressing complex, multi-objective, resource-management problems
Provide a toolbox-approach to the development of resource-management, decision-support systems

10. MODULAR MODELING SYSTEM (MMS)
Model Builder
MMS Interface
Object User Interface

11. LEVELS OF MODULAR DESIGN
PROCESS
MODEL
FULLY COUPLED MODELS
LOOSELY COUPLED MODELS
RESOURCE MANAGEMENT DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEMS
ANALYSIS AND SUPPORT TOOLS

12. PRMS

13. WEBMOD
PRMS
National Weather Service - Hydro17
TOPMODEL

14. Use Chemical and Isotopic Tracers to Evaluate Simulated Flow Paths and Residence Times
Next step: Use tracers to constrain the hydrologic solutions
Chloride
Potassium
DOC
Oxygen Isotopes
Bedrock Alkalinity
Equifinality vs uncertainty in time and place.

15. Coupled WEBMOD and PHREEQC

18. LEVELS OF MODULAR DESIGN
PROCESS
MODEL
FULLY COUPLED MODELS
LOOSELY COUPLED MODELS
RESOURCE MANAGEMENT DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEMS
ANALYSIS AND SUPPORT TOOLS

19. GSFLOW -- Coupled PRMS, MODFLOW, SFR, and Unsaturated Zone Models
PRMS to SFR
Unsaturated Zone Model:
PRMS to UNSAT UNSAT to MODFLOW
PRMS to MODFLOW
MODFLOW to SFR
Streamflow

20. 2x vertical exaggeration
Sagehen Creek Model
2x vertical exaggeration
Springs
Stream gage

21. Ground-Water Discharge & Saturation Excess

22. LEVELS OF MODULAR DESIGN
PROCESS
MODEL
FULLY COUPLED MODELS
LOOSELY COUPLED MODELS
RESOURCE MANAGEMENT DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEMS
ANALYSIS AND SUPPORT TOOLS

23. Aquatic Habitat Models
Watershed Model
Hydraulics Model
Fish Model

24. Aquatic Habitat Models Results
ft3/s
ft2

25. LEVELS OF MODULAR DESIGN
PROCESS
MODEL
FULLY COUPLED MODELS
LOOSELY COUPLED MODELS
RESOURCE MANAGEMENT DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEMS
ANALYSIS AND SUPPORT TOOLS

26. Watershed and River Systems Management Program
Recreation
Watershed and River Systems Management Program
Municipal & Industrial
Irrigation
Hydropower
Research and development of decision support systems and their application to achieve an equitable balance among water resource issues.
Riparian Habitat
Endangered Species

27. WARSMP Basins Currently Active
Gunnison, Truckee, Upper Rio Grande, Yakima
Under Development
San Juan, Umatilla, Upper Columbia
Future
Bitterroot, Carson, Central Platte, Lower Rio Grande, Salmon
WARSMP Basins

28. Generic DSS Framework for a Wide Range of Management Issues
Any Resource Management Model
Climate Data Source
Any
Database
DMI
DMI
DMI
MMI
Object User Interface
Interface for data visualization
and modeling
Modular Modeling System
Physical Process Models

29. Database-Centered Decision Support System
Hydromet
Real-time climate data feed
Hydrologic
Database
DMI
DMI
USBR RiverWare
Reservoir and River System
Operations Model
DMI
DMI
USGS Object User Interface
Interface for data visualization
and modeling
USGS Modular Modeling System
Precipitation/Runoff Model (PRMS)

30. OBJECT USER INTEFACE (OUI)

31. Environmental Database-Centered Decision Support System (DSS)
Resource
Database
Resource Management Alternatives
SIMPPLLE
Vegetation Dynamics Models (USFS)
Object User Interface
Interface for data visualization
and modeling
Modular Modeling System
Physical Process Models
DMI

32. Focus Area Model Processes
Precipitation Distribution
Snow accumulation and melt proceses
Parameter estimation in ungauged basins

33. Precipitation Interpolation Methods
Inverse distance weighting
Kriging
Multiple linear regression
Climatological multiple linear regression
Locally weighted polynomial
k nearest neighbor …

34. PRMS Snowpack Energy Balance Components

35. Evaluating MM5 Output Using PRMS

36. Nested Domains for MM5

37. HRU Configurations
Polygon
Grid

38. HRU Configurations

39. (Climate Station Data)
Effects of HRU Configuration and Data Source (Yampa Springs)
Grid
Polygon
(Climate Station Data)
HRU Type/ Data Size

40. Satellite vs Modeled Snow Covered Area
east

41. Animas Basin Snow-covered Area Year 2000
Simulated
Measured (MODIS Satellite)
Error Range <= 0.1

42. NOHRSC Snow Modeling Framework
Data Assimilation 2
Temperature
Relative Humidity
Wind Speed
Solar Radiation
Atmos. Radiation
Precipitation
Precipitation Type
Hourly Input
Gridded Data (1 km)
Soils Properties
Land Use/Cover
Forest Properties
Static Gridded
Data (1 km)
Snow Energy and Mass Balance Model
Blowing Snow Model
Radiative Transfer Model
State Variables for
Multiple Vertical
Snow & Soil Layers
Snow Water Equivalent
Snow Depth
Snow Temperature
Liquid Water Content
Snow Sublimation
Snow Melt 1
Snow Observations
Snow Water Equivalent
Snow Depth
Snow Cover 3
NSA Product
Generation
Interactive Maps
Digital Data
Discussions

43. NOHRSC Snow Model Physics

45. National Snow Analyses (NSA)
Data Products
Interactive Maps
Time Series Plots
Text Discussions
Snow Information Products
High-resolution Daily and Hourly Gridded Snow Data Sets of Fused Model and Observations
Local Information (1 km2)
Continental U.S. Information
Snow Water Equivalent
Snow Depth
Snow Density
Snow Sfc. Temperature
Snow Avg. Temperature
Snow Melt
Sublimation
Snow Wetness
Archived at NCDC, NSIDC, and NDFD (soon)

46. Animas Durango
1805 km2

47. Animas River Basin, CO

48. Predicted and Measured Streamflow
Animas Basin, CO
PREDICTED
MEASURED

49. Animas Basin SWE
April 1
(in.)
May 1
SNODAS
PRMS

50. Animas Basin SWE
(in.)
April 1
May 1
SNODAS
PRMS

51. SWE Difference on Selected HRUs
SWE_diff = SNODAS - PRMS

52. PRMS
OBS
Q (cfs)
Animas
PRMS
SNODAS
melt (in)
PRMS
SNODAS
swe (in)

53. a priori Parameter Estimation
IAHS Predictions in Ungauged Basins (PUBs)
predict the fluxes of water and associated constituents from ungauged basins, along with estimates of the uncertainty of predictions
Model Parameter Estimation Experiment (MOPEX)
develop techniques for the a priori estimation of the parameters used in land surface parameterization schemes of atmospheric models and in hydrologic models

54. Gauged Subbasins in the Upper Gunnison Basin, CO
East River
Taylor River
Tomichi Creek
Lake Fork
Cochetopa Creek

55. Forecasting at Internal Nodes
Hunter Creek nr Aspen, Colorado
Hunter
Midway
No Name
Gage
Trans-mountain Diversion Points
HRUs

56. GIS WEASEL Delineation: Only requires elevation Grid as input
Interactively delineate
Area of Interest
Many kinds of features
Streams
Elevation bands
Landuse
Contributing areas
Topographic index ……

57. Satellite SW Radiation (U Md)
Vegetation Type (USFS)
Vegetation Density (USFS)
Land Use-Land Cover (USGS)
DIGITAL DATABASES
STATSGO Soils (USDA)
Satellite SW Radiation (U Md)
Monthly PET

58. AUTOMATED PARAMETER ESTIMATION USING THE GIS WEASEL

59. MOPEX US Basin Locations
Workshop I
Workshop II: 20 basins in France
Workshop ?
438 basins

60. Participants MOPEX Workshop I
NWS (SWB & SAC)
Meteo France (ISBA)
Russian Academy of Science (SWAP)
UC Berkeley / Princeton (VIC)
Cemagref, France (GR4J)
NCEP (NOAH)
USGS (PRMS)
Yamanashi University (BTOPMC)
Swedish Meteor. and Hydro. Institute, Sweden (HBV)
University of Alberta, Canada (SAC)
University of Newcastle, Australia
University of Arizona
Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, UK
Oregon State University
Wageningen University, The Netherlands
National Institute of Hydrology, Canada
University of New Hampshire

61. MOPEX Workshop I Results
Average daily Nash-Sutcliffe CE for all 12 basins
Uncalibrated
Calibrated
PRMS
NWS
VIC
PRMS
NWS
VIC

62. Ensemble Modeling
10 Model Ensemble

63. Dill Basin, Germany
Topography
750 km2
Sub-basins
Land Use

64. Bias & Efficiency of Model Simulations Original Precip Data Set

65. Focus Area Toolbox

66. TOOLBOX
TOOL PITCH
Parameterizer (GIS Weasel)

67. TOOLBOX
TOOL PITCH
Parameterizer (GIS Weasel)
Optimizer (Luca)

68. Statistical and graphical sensitivity and uncertainty analysis tools
TOOLBOX
Statistical and graphical sensitivity and uncertainty analysis tools
TOOL PITCH
Parameterizer (GIS Weasel)
Optimizer (Luca)
Analyzer

69. OMS

70. Integrated Framework Development
Collaborative effort to integrate the Object Modeling System (OMS) and the Modular Modeling System (MMS)
OMS Platform
ModelCore
ModelBuilder
RZWQM
PRMS
Database
Netbeans IDE, Sun Forte,…
Java Compiler
XML
Testing
C++
Other…
- ARS USGS NRCS - (NWS)
-Friedrich Schiller University, Germany
Branding

71. Working with the NRCS and NWS to develop a Modular Modeling System forecasting toolbox using MMS/OMS and PRMS

72. Integrated Adaptive-Modeling and Decision-Support System Summary
Facilitates multi-disciplinary integration of models and tools to address the issues of water and environmental-resource management.
Allows rapid evaluation of the effects of decision and management scenarios.
Allows incorporation of continuing advances in physical, social, and economic sciences.
Provides an effective means for sharing scientific understanding with stakeholders and decision makers.
Open source software design allows many to share resources, expertise, knowledge, and costs.

73. MORE INFORMATION http://wwwbrr.cr.usgs.gov/mms