1. THE IMMIGRATION DEBATE

2. REVISED CLASS SCHEDULE May 28: The Immigration Debate May 30: The Ebullience of Brazil June 04: The Latino Experience in America June 06: Review and Study Guide

3. GUEST SPEAKER MAY 30 “The Ebullience of Brazil” Simeon Nichter (UCSD Political Science)  Ph.D. UC Berkeley  Fellowships at Stanford, Harvard, and Center for Global Development (Washington DC)  Research: political voice of the poor, especially in Latin America (and Brazil)

4. The Immigration Debate: Patterns and Policies THE NUMBERS GAME(S) Flows Stocks Proportions Costs and benefits Rates of assimilation

5. Emotional Issues and Political Debates Multiculturalism vs. melting pots Diversity vs. tradition Fairness vs. efficiency

6. Numerical Dimensions ~11 million illegal immigrants in U.S. 55-60% from Mexico 25% of Mexico’s able-bodied male workforce now in U.S. U.S.-Mexican wage ratio ~ 8:1 or 10:1

7. Undocumented Immigrants in the United States

8. Mexican-Origin Population in United States, 1900-2003 Mx-born (9.9)

9. Regional Origin of Mexican Migrants

10. Geographical Concentration of Mexican Migrants

11. Remittances to Mexico, 1990-2003

12. Border Patrol Agents

13. Effects of Border Enforcement 1. Shifting routes (toward Arizona) 2. Increased use of coyotes (smugglers) 3. Reduced “circularity” (more permanent stays) 4. More women and families 5. Increased loss of life

14. Deaths at the Border 2001 = 528 2002 = 470 2003 = 478 2004 = 460 2005 > 500

16. Migration and the Global Economic Crisis Context: joblessness everywhere New entries down (not due to border enforcement, since 95% of migrants without papers get through) Return migration growing (despite concern in Mexico about major increase) Net migration from Mexico ~ zero Within USA, unemployment among Latino men > Anglo men

17. The Range of Policy Choice: Legal Migration Revise legal quotas Revise criteria for entry

18. Strategies for restriction: Building fences Blocking corridors (e.g., Operation Gatekeeper) Withdrawing incentives and benefits (e.g., Prop 187) Punishing employers Strategies for opening: Augmenting quotas Guest-worker programs Eliminating barriers Strategies for reduction: Targeting economic development Circulating information Additional steps? The Range of Policy Choice: Illegal Migration

19. Initiatives on Migration Phase 1: The Whole Enchilada (January-September 11, 2001) Phase 2: Focus on Security and Border Fortification Phase 3: The Second Bush Term Temporary amnesty for those here and employed Guest-worker program Eventual path to citizenship

20. OBAMA AND THE “GANG OF EIGHT” Path to citizenship: Apply for green card in 10 years, citizenship 3 years after that; pay $1,000 fine plus back taxes; stay employed and learn English (faster track for Dream Act youth) Border patrol: DHS to receive $3 billion for improved border security, including use of surveillance drones and 3,500 additional agents, plus $1.5 billion for fencing. Within 5 years DHS must achieve 100 % surveillance of border and apprehend 90% of illegal crossers in “high-risk” (densely populated) areas Skilled workers: visas for skilled engineers and computer programmers to increase from 65,000 per year to 110,00, with an eventual cap as high as 180,000 Guest workers: new program of 20,000 for low-skilled workers, rising to 75,000 by 2019; limitation on farm workers Family visas: tighter restrictions on family unification; point system based on family ties and work skills by 2015

21. A HIGHLY EDUCATED GUESS CIR will pass in Senate with as many as 70 votes It will fail in the House by about 7 votes Question: What might change the odds in the House?

22. What Would You Do?