1. http://www.cast-safety.org/http://www.cast-safety.org/

2. Historical Fatal Accident Rate U.S. Commercial Operations Historical Fatal Accident Rate U.S. Commercial Operations 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002 2003 2004200520062007 Fatality Accidents (or Full Loss Accident Equivalents) per 10 Million Departures 5 year moving average of fatal accidents per 10 million departures 82% Reduction in Actual Fatal Accident Rate 1996-2007 Initial Era of CAST

3. Vision - Mission - Goals Vision Key aviation stakeholders acting cooperatively to lead the world-wide aviation community to the highest levels of global commercial aviation safety by focusing on the right things. Mission Enable a continuous improvement framework built on the proactive identification of current and future risks, developing mitigations as needed and monitoring the effectiveness of implemented actions. Future Goals Reduce the U.S. commercial aviation fatality risk by at least 50% from 2010 to 2025 and Continue to work with our international partners to reduce fatality risk world-wide commercial aviation.

4. ** Observers AIA Airbus ALPA APA ATA IFALPA NACA Boeing GE* RAA FSF AIA Airbus ALPA APA ATA IFALPA NACA Boeing GE* RAA FSF Government, industry and labor collaborate to develop a voluntary, prioritized safety agenda * Representing P&W and RR Industry Commercial Aviation Safety Team (CAST) Government DOD FAA Aircraft Certification Flight Standards System Safety Air Traffic Operations Research NASA EASA (ECAST) TCC DOD FAA Aircraft Certification Flight Standards System Safety Air Traffic Operations Research NASA EASA (ECAST) TCC IATA** AAPA** ATAC** APFA** ACI-NA** IATA** AAPA** ATAC** APFA** ACI-NA** NATCA** NTSB** ICAO**

5. Robust CAST Methodology Detailed event sequence - problem identification from worldwide accidents and incidents Broad-based teams (45-50 specialists /team) Over 450 problem statements (contributing factors) Over 900 interventions proposed Analyzed for effectiveness and synergy

6. Joint Safety Analysis Team (JSAT) CAST Safety Strategy & Process Influence Worldwide Safety Enhancements Data Analysis Rigorous Methodology Set Safety Priorities Cost/Benefit Analysis Achieve consensus on solution feasibility and priority Integrate into existing work and distribute Implement U.S. Safety Enhancements Agree on problems and interventions Joint Safety Implementation Team (JSIT) Joint Implementation Measurement Data Analysis Team (JIMDAT) “Solution Development”“Problem Statement” “Execution”

7. 5.5-24 JSAT Process – Subject Matter Expertise Identify Problems Identify Intervention Strategies Assign Standard Problem Statements Evaluate Intervention Effectiveness Prioritize Interventions Technical Review & Report Results Global Review of Characteristics/ Indicators Evaluate Problem Importance Review Data Record Characteristics/ Indicators Develop Event Sequence WHO, WHAT, WHEN, WHY? ALPA/APA ALPA/APA FAA AIR* FAA AIR* FAA AFS* FAA AFS* FAA ATO* FAA ATO* FAA AVP* FAA AVP* Airbus Airbus EASA EASA ATA ATA AIA AIA Boeing Boeing Transport Canada Transport Canada * Certification, Flight Standards, Air Traffic, Accident Investigation/Prevention

8. Joint Safety Implementation Team (JSIT) JSIT develops a safety enhancement based on: JSIT develops a safety enhancement based on: – Technical feasibility of the intervention – Resources available Financial impact Financial impact Capability for operational deployment Capability for operational deployment Schedule of phased implementation Schedule of phased implementation – Regulatory compatibility of the intervention – Sociological aspects JSIT prepares a Detailed Implementation Plan (“DIP”) JSIT prepares a Detailed Implementation Plan (“DIP”)

9. Joint Implementation Measurement Data Analysis Team (JIMDAT) Measuring the effectiveness of Mitigations

10. JIMDAT Develops a Prioritization Methodology Identifies the most effective solutions derived from all accident categories Identifies the most effective solutions derived from all accident categories Considers effectiveness vs. resources Considers effectiveness vs. resources Tests solutions against fatal and hull loss accidents Tests solutions against fatal and hull loss accidents Creates draft master strategic safety plan Creates draft master strategic safety plan Identifies areas for future study/mitigation Identifies areas for future study/mitigation

11. Direct Accident Costs JIMDAT Accident Set (1987 – 2005) Airline Immediate Response: [once per each Hull Loss Accident] Crisis management center, passenger information, media information Loss of Reputation: [once for Accident with consequence >50%] Society may be more conservative in flying with that airline or on the aircraft type Bereavement: [once per Accident] Notify family members, monitor search and recovery, arrange a memorial service Site Clearance: [once per each Hull Loss Accident] Part 121 JIMDAT Accident Set (1987– 2005) Injury/Medical/Legal Fatality $5,932,700 1,951 $11,574,697,700 Serious Injury $1,992,533 243 $484,185,519 Minor Injury $55,750 545 $30,383,750 Hull Loss Actual Replacement Costs 73 $470,610,000 Maintenance and Repair Non-Hull Loss $3,811,000 $0 Airline Immediate Response $1,000,000 73 73,000,000 Loss of Reputation $150,000,000 49 7,350,000,000 Bereavement $150,000 84 $12,600,000 Site Clearance $1,980,000 73 $144,540,000 $20,140,016,969 Total Flight Cycles 200,016,636 $/FC $100.70

12. Resource Cost Vs. Risk Reduction 47 Completed SEs & Planned SEs (2007 Implementation Level) Completed SEs & Planned SEs (2020 Implementation Level) All JSIT Proposed SEs (2020 Implementation Level) 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000 Resource Cost ($ Millions) 2007 2020 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% Risk Eliminated by Safety Enhancements 47 Completed Safety Enhancements $350M $470M $740M $5B 74% Risk Reduction 80% Risk Reduction 48% Risk Reduction 20072020 68% Risk Reduction

13. Dollars/Flight Cycle Part 121 Aviation Industry Costs Due to Fatal Hull Loss Accidents $100 $80 $60 $40 $20 0 Historical cost of accidents per flight cycle 74% Risk reduction Savings ~ $74/Flight Cycle or ~ $814 Million Dollars/Year $26.18 per flight cycle Cost of accident fatalities following implementation of the CAST plan @ 2020 levels 2020 Cost Savings (2010 Dollars) 2007

14. Current CAST Safety Plan Projected 74% fatality risk reduction by 2020 Projected 74% fatality risk reduction by 2020 – Industry and Government implementing plan 61 Completed Safety Enhancements addressing: 61 Completed Safety Enhancements addressing: – Safety Culture – Maintenance Procedures – Flight Crew Training – Air Traffic Controller Training – Uncontained Engine Failures – Terrain avoidance warning system (TAWS) – Standard Operating Procedures – Precision Approaches – Minimum Safe Altitude Warning (MSAW) Systems – Proactive Safety Programs (FOQA + ASAP)

15. CAST Safety Plan (continued) 22 Committed Safety Enhancements Policies and Procedures Policies and Procedures Aircraft Design Aircraft Design Flight Crew Training (additional aspects) Flight Crew Training (additional aspects) Runway Incursion Prevention Runway Incursion Prevention Precision Approaches (additional projects) Precision Approaches (additional projects) Icing (additional turboprop projects) Icing (additional turboprop projects) Midair Midair Maintenance Maintenance Runway Safety Runway Safety Safety culture, policies and procedures Safety culture, policies and procedures

16. Effectiveness that an intervention has for reducing the accident rate if incorporated Portion of world fleet with intervention implemented (),  Accident Risk Reduction = Calculating Potential Benefit of a Safety Enhancing Intervention Was it Effective? Did we do what we said we would do?

17. CAST Safety Plan Development Accident JSATS Case studies Accident JSITS Case studies Safety Enhancements Incident Analysis Process JIMDAT Review Emerging Risk Changing Risk Develop Enhancements & Metrics Aviation System Changes Present In Master Factors Yes No Demographic Changes Identify Hazards Identify Factors Develop Contributing Factors (new or emerging Identify Hazards Identify Factors Master Contributing Factors FAST Hazards CAST Plan Recommended Plan Revision Performance To Plan Review Non- Performance Information Metrics

18. Aviation Safety Information Analysis & Sharing (ASIAS) Share voluntarily collected safety data Share voluntarily collected safety data Develop tools to make data analysis more efficient Develop tools to make data analysis more efficient Identify and access key data sources Identify and access key data sources Discover potential aviation safety risks using key data sources Discover potential aviation safety risks using key data sources Transition to Decision Making Based on Analysis of Incident and System Safety Performance Data Transition to Decision Making Based on Analysis of Incident and System Safety Performance Data Develop automated information integration capabilities centered on aviation safety risk topics Develop automated information integration capabilities centered on aviation safety risk topics Transfer technologies and key data sources into National Archives Transfer technologies and key data sources into National Archives

19. ASIAS Enables Various Types of Proactive Safety Analyses Known Risk Monitoring Vulnerability Discovery Benchmarking Opportunity for participating Air Carriers CAST Safety Enhancement Assessments Directed Studies

20. Data Sources Supporting ASIAS Studies Safety Data Aviation Safety Reporting System Runway Incursion Surface Incident Operational Error / Operational Deviation Pilot Deviation Vehicle or Pedestrian Deviation National Transportation Safety Board FAA Accident/Incident Data System FAA Service Difficulty Reports Proprietary Data Traffic Management Reroutes and Delays Airport Configuration and Operations Sector and Route Structure Procedures Surveillance Data for En Route, Terminal and Airport ATC Information Other Information ASAP FOQA ATSAP Manufacturers data Avionics data Bureau of Transportation Statistics Weather / Winds

21. ASIAS PARTICIPANTS As of 10 November 2011 40 Airlines 32 have a FOQA program 40 have an ASAP program JetBlue Airways Mesa Airlines Mesaba Airlines Miami Air International North American Airlines Piedmont Airlines Pinnacle Airlines PSA Airlines Republic Airlines Shuttle America SkyWest Airlines Southwest Airlines Spirit Airlines Sun Country Airlines Trans States Airlines United Airlines United Parcel Service US Airways USA 3000 Airlines World Airways Air Wisconsin Airlines AirTran Airlines Alaska Airlines American Airlines American Eagle Airlines Atlantic Southeast Airlines Chautauqua Airlines CitationAir Colgan Air Comair CommutAir Compass Airlines Continental Airlines Delta Air Lines Empire Airlines ExpressJet Frontier Airlines GoJet Airlines Gulfstream Int’l Airlines Hawaiian Airlines

22. ASIAS is Governed by Formal Principles Non-punitive reporting Data used solely for advancement of safety Airline data is de-identified Analyses approved by an ASIAS Executive Board

23. ASIAS Studies In Progress or Completed Airline Benchmarks Terrain Awareness Warning System Alerts Unstabilized Approaches TCAS Resolution Advisories Directed Studies Runway Safety Terrain Awareness Warning System Study TCAS Resolution Advisories CAST Known Risk and Safety Enhancement Effectiveness Monitoring Approach and Landing Accident Risks Risk of Landing Runway Overrun Controlled Flight Into Terrain (CFIT)

24. Aviation Community Emerging Safety Concerns Aviation Community Emerging Safety Concerns ASIAS Analysis and Monitoring + Vulnerability Discovery ASIAS Analysis and Monitoring + Vulnerability Discovery CAST Safety Enhancement Implementation CAST Safety Enhancement Implementation Success relies on collaboration between voluntary safety programs. Success relies on collaboration between voluntary safety programs. Share Best Practices

25. http://www.cast-safety.org/http://www.cast-safety.org/