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Implementation of New Air-Sea Exchange Coefficients(Cd/Ch) into the Operational HWRF Model: Impact on Hurricane Intensity Forecast Skill Young C. Kwon,

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Presentation on theme: "Implementation of New Air-Sea Exchange Coefficients(Cd/Ch) into the Operational HWRF Model: Impact on Hurricane Intensity Forecast Skill Young C. Kwon,"— Presentation transcript:

1 Implementation of New Air-Sea Exchange Coefficients(Cd/Ch) into the Operational HWRF Model: Impact on Hurricane Intensity Forecast Skill Young C. Kwon, Robert Tuleya, Hua-lu Pan, Vijay Tallaparagada, William Lapenta and Steve Lord (EMC/NCEP/NWS/NOAA)

2 Motivation  The HWRF model showed the strong positive intensity bias during the 2008 and 2009 season  Because the main energy source and sink of hurricanes are enthalpy and momentum fluxes from the ocean, sensitivity tests of air-sea exchange coefficients are performed to improve the intensity forecast skill of HWRF by reducing the intensity bias  Test results show that the observation based Cd (Powell 2003) and Ch (CBALST 2007) combination produced the best performance

3 C d Profiles vs wind speed C h Profiles vs wind speed CBLAST 2003 Powell operational

4 Ratio of Ch to Cd for Operational and Modified HWRF Configurations Operational HWRF Modified (test)

5 Experiment Design Cases: Total of 154 runs Hurricane Fay: 2008.08.15.18 – 2008.08.24.00 (33 runs) Hurricane Gustav: 2008.08.25.12 – 2008.09.01.18 (30 runs) Hurricane Hanna: 2008. 08.28.06 – 2008.09.07.00 (39 run) Hurricane Ike: 2008.09.01.12 – 2008.09.14.06 (52 runs) HWRF Configurations: 1) H48N: Operational HWRF (blue) 2) H5_5: Modified Ch/Cd (purple) Cd: 2003 Powell Ch: CBALST (Jun Zhang et al, 2007)

6 Max. Improvement: ~ 22% (4.3kt) Avg Intensity Error Avg Track Error Reduction of intensity error No impact on track error

7 Intensity Bias Standard Deviation Reduction in HWRF intensity bias for longer lead time guidance

8 Number of superior performance

9 Max. Improvement: ~ 35% (8.0kt) Intensity Error (IKE) Track Error (IKE)

10 Fay Max. Improvement: ~ 24% Intensity Error (FAY) Track Error (FAY)

11 Intensity Bias Standard Deviation

12 Summary The observation based Cd and Ch improve the intensity forecast skill of HWRF model about 20% The positive intensity bias of HWRF reduce about half at the 4-5 day forecast The track forecast skill remains the same with change of Cd and Ch

13 Future plan 1. Changing momentum Zo and thermal Zo instead of directly modifying Cd /Ch (Bob Tuleya, Issac Ginis) Z om from wave mode ouput  HWRF surface physics  surface fluxes 2. Conduct experiments to improve the boundary layer physics of HWRF (J. Han GFS physics member)

14 Courtesy to Isaac Ginis Coupled-Wave model output

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