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Published byNancy Higgins Modified over 9 years ago
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Preliminary approach
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Scenarios with an Intensive Contribution of Nuclear Energy to the World Energy Supply H.Nifenecker 1, D.Heuer 1, S.David 2, J.M.Loiseaux 1, J.M.Martin 3, O.Meplan 1,A.Nuttin 1 1 Institut des Sciences Nucléaires (IN2P3-CNRS,Université Joseph Fourier) 53 ave. Des Martyrs F38026 Grenoble France 2 Institut de Physique Nucléaire d’Orsay, (IN2P3-CNRS, Université Paris XI) BP 1, F-91406 Orsay Cedex, France 3 Institut d’Economie et de Politique de l’Energie (CNRS,Université Joseph Fourier) BP47, F38040 Grenoble Cedex 09 France
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Global Heating Challenge
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(a) (b) Models for emission (a) and concentrations of CO2 (b)
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Global Warming Present Emissions : 6GtC World population: 6 Billions Emission/capita: 1 Ton C Max. emission for temperature stabilization: 3GtC Objective for 2050 World Population(minimum) : 9 Billions Emission/capita: 0.33 Ton
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Present emissions World average: 1 ton C/capita USA: 6 tons C/capita Germany : 3.5 tons C/capita France: 1.9 tons C/capita China: 0.7 tons C/capita
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IIASA-WEC Scenarios A: strong growth –A1: Oil –A2: Coal –A3:Gaz B: Middle of the road C: Low energy intensity. High electricity –C1: Ren.+Gaz –C2: Ren.+Nuclear
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Exhaustion of fossile reserves (Gtoe)
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Nuclear Intensive Scenarios
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Minimize use of fossiles for Electricity « Reasonable » implementation of Nuclear Power OECD: 85% Transition: 50% China, India, Latin Am.: 30% 2030 3000 GWe Nuclear Power
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2050 1 st Scenario No more use of fossiles for electricity 2 nd Scenario Generalized use of Electrolytic Hydrogen Increased share of Electricity: OECD: 90% Transition: 85% S.E.Asia: 80% Rest of the World: 70% 4500 GWe Nuclear Power 9000 GWe Nuclear Power Manage 235 U Reserves
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Scenario no coal no gas in 2050
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Gestion of Natural Uranium Reserves
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Breeding Cycles
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U-Pu versus Th-U cycles U-Pu Fast Spectra Pu fuel 1.2 GWe reactors Solid fuels 1 year cooling 25 years doubling time Th-U Thermal Spectra Pu, then 233 U fuel 1 GWe reactors Molten Salts fuel 10 days fuel cycling 25 years doubling time
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