2. Chunka&Paul The New Killer Apps.. Presentation of Rule 2: Embrace Your Doomsday Scenario Veronika Höök

3. Why Doomsday Scenario? Many executives – over optimistic Example: Fucushima Daiichi – either earthquake or a tsunami – not BOTH simultaneously -> zero power for days -> severe damage and radioactive discharges IF doomsday scenario -> better design and disaster planiing Why do executives need to understand doomsday scenarios?-Three reasons: Helps to build alignment Spot vulnerabilities Make improvements Increase in REVENUE &PROFITS even if - NO doomsday $

4. Executives’ Common Understanding What Threats? When? Doomsday Scenarios PERIODICALLY

5. Exercise: Be Your Own The Most Dangerous Competitor Several executives’ teams Each produces ideas – HOW to COMPETE with their own firm – business plan Five stage process

6. Exercise Stages 1. THINK – what events might threaten your future Technology developments Customer activities Stakeholder actions Competitors’ actions Government actions Substitutions etc.

7. Exercise Stages 2. Plot each point (event) on a chart 3. Select events with high likelihood and importance

8. Exercise Stages 4.Teams put each event into a coherent story describe HOW such scenario could come within TWO or THREE YEARS 5.Each team presents scenario to other teams Discussion Generation Signposts (awareness) Identification

9. AT&T Exercise – Year 1951 40 executives Start with a clean sheet - no telephone system anymore What properties a telephone should have? 90 desirable properties (” no wrong numbers” ”Knowing who was calling” ”not fixed, but traveled with user” ) Technical feasibility of each design feature over the next year Spotted vulnerabilities Migrated to Crucial New Capabilities However, later(1964&1990s) no reaction to the communication network innovation (circuit-switched -> bandwidth)& no reaction on depreciation -> failed investments