1. David Smith The Sunday Times

2. The Boustead Annual Globalisation Lecture The global financial crisis and the changing world economy

3. The global economys shifting sands

4. After the upheaval How did we get here and where are we going?

5. A self-feeding cycle Prolonged growth Rising confidence Excessive lending

6. The global economy looked unstoppable

7. The (brief) rise and fall of sub-prime

8. A leveraged buyout boom

9. The long credit boom

10. The rise of shadow banking

11. The financial sector lent to itself

12. … and to the rest of the economy

13. Housing boom and bust: Spain, UK, US, Japan

14. House of cards topples US house prices start to fall sharply, first big national fall since the depression. Subprime loans and securities start to look unsafe – not AAA but junk. Banks realise they are heading for huge losses and, importantly, so are other banks.

15. The biggest financial storm in a century

16. Extreme financial volatility (VIX)

17. Time heals – a long time since 2008

18. A dramatic response (central banks)

19. But the worst post-1945 world recession

20. The 1970s, 80s and 90s in context

21. A world trade collapse

22. And a rise in unemployment

23. Shrinking banking capacity

24. And very painful fiscal hangovers

25. … which will endure

26. Plenty of global green shoots

27. Global PMIs have recovered well

28. As world trade bounces back

29. Led by Asia

30. … globalisation threat averted

31. A more open world

32. A V-shaped recovery from the IMF

33. A fast-changing world

34. China and India were mighty before

35. Start of the great divergence

36. No double-dip with emerging economies strong

37. Not just an Asian story

38. But a recovery led by Asia

39. Barely a missed beat in China

40. Back to the future

41. But how quickly will it happen?

42. Where the growth will come from

43. Closing the per capita gap

44. China imports as well as exports

45. But global imbalances remain

46. A rising Asian middle class

47. Large reserve holdings

48. Closing the innovation gap?

49. Accelerating the global shift 2007: China was expected to overtake Japans GDP in 2015, America in the mid- 2030s. 2010: China has already overtaken Japan; will overtake America in the 2020s. Global crisis and its aftermath has accelerated the shift by 5-10 years. China, India and America will be the worlds big three: only one is flagging.

50. What could go wrong (short-term)? Credit Crunch II – refinancing and deleveraging by the banks. Sovereign debt – the euro zone and beyond. Currency wars – China versus America as the new heavyweight bout but also others. Protectionism – either provoked by or in addition to currency manipulation. Fiscal consolidation and the economic and political reaction to it. The unknown unknowns.

51. What could go wrong (long-term?) Politics – a backlash against capitalism; pressures for greater democracy; inequality. Growth momentum fades dramatically as the easy catch-up phase comes to an end. Globalisation goes into reverse, led by the actions of the advanced economies. Resource constraints.