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Ordered logit, demand for sex. Dependent variable.

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Presentation on theme: "Ordered logit, demand for sex. Dependent variable."— Presentation transcript:

1 Ordered logit, demand for sex

2 Dependent variable

3 Ordered structure

4 Choice probability

5 Probability distribution, Logistic

6 Ordered Logit

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8 Thus

9 Likelihood

10 Marginal effects

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13 Utility function, use of condoms

14 Probability of using condoms

15 Log likelihood

16 What money buys: clients of street sex workers in the US Maria Laura Di Tommaso, Marina della Guista, Isilda Shima and Steinar Strøm

17 Table A1. Dependent variable for the ordered logit Frequency of sex with sex worker during last year. No of Obs 582 Frequency per cent =1 never25.4 =2 once27.0 =3 more than 1 but less than once per month35.0 =4 1 to 3 times per month12.5

18 Table 6. Estimation results. Variables Ordered LogitLogit: Probability of being a “regular” client Logit: Probability of using condom Education =1 college or more; =0 otherwise 0.160 (0.194) 0.067 (0.243) 0.067 (0.474) Work status =1 Full time; =0 otherwise0.655** (0.281) 0.656* (0.347) 0.476 (0.564) Race =1 if non white; =0 white0.491*** (0.186) 0.201 (0.226) 1.121** (0.576) Job =1executives/business managers; =0 otherwise -0.125 (0.170) -0.151 (0.209) -0.023 (0.415) Marriage =1 married; =0 otherwise-0.312* (0.173) -0.118 (0.213) 0.090 (0.412) Control dislike0.276*** (0.096) 0.220* (0.118) -0.062 (0.234) Age0.017* (0.009) 0.030*** (0.011) -0.031 (0.020) Factor1 'againstg ender violence' 0.181* (0.108) 0.274** (0.136) 0.464* (0.259) Factor2 'against prostitution' -0.159* (0.094) -0.199* (0.112) -0.400* (0.222) Factor3 'sex workers not different and dislike their job' 0.198** (0.101) 0.200* (0.124) -0.102 (0.242) Factor4 'like relationships' -0.536*** (0.112) -0.641*** (0.137) -0.351 (0.266) Factor5 'variety dislike' -0.968*** (0.121) -1.031*** (0.151) 0.692*** (0.281) Factor6 'relationship troubles ' -0.026 (0.109) 0.006 (0.137) 0.482* (0.293) Threshold  1 0.788 (0.550) Threshold  2 2.233*** (0.559) Threshold  3 4.452*** (0.580) Constant-2.501*** (0.692) 3.643*** (1.339) # of observations Mcfaddens rho 582 0.14 582 0.18 570 0.71 Standard errors in parentheses. (Blank: Not significant. ***:Significant at  1%, **: Significant at  5%, *:Significant  10%)

19 Table 7: Marginal effects in the ordered logit Variables Never with sex workers Once with sex workers More than 1 time but less then once per month 1 to 3 times per month Education =1 college or more; =0 otherwise -0.0269 (0.033) -0.012 (0.014) 0.027 (0.033) 0.012 (0.014) Work status =1 Full time; =0 otherwise -0.123** (0.059) -0.033*** (0.008) 0.113** (0.048) 0.0429*** (0.015) Race =1 if non white;=0 white-0.077*** (0.028) -0.044** (0.018) 0.079*** (0.029) 0.0425** (0.017) Job =1executives/business managers =0 otherwise 0.02 (0.028) 0.01 (0.014) -0.02 (0.028) -0.010 (0.013) Marriage =1 married; 0 otherwise0.051* (0.0287) 0.026* (0.015) -0.052* (0.029) -0.025* (0.014) Control Dislike-0.045*** (0.016) -0.023*** (0.008) 0.046*** (0.017) 0.022*** (0.008) Age-0.002** (0.002) -0.001* (0.0008) 0.002* (0.0015) 0.001* (0.0007) Factor1 'Against gender violence' -0.029* (0.018) -0.015* (0.0094) 0.030* (0.018) 0.014* (0.0088) Factor2 'Against prostitution' 0.026* (0.015) 0.013* (0.0083) -0.026* (0.015) -0.012* (0.0077) Factor3 'Sex workers not different and dislike their job' -0.032** (0.016) -0.016* (0.009 ) 0.033** (0.0172) 0.016* (0.0083) Factor4 'Like Relationships' 0.088*** (0.0186) 0.045*** (0.011) -0.09*** (0.020) -0.043*** (0.009) Factor5 'Variety dislike' 0.159*** (0.02) 0.085*** (0.015) -0.162*** (0.024) -0.078*** (0.012) Factor6 'Relationship troubles' 0.004 (0.017) 0.002 (0.009) -0.004 (0.018) -0.002 (0.008)

20 Other examples Tax evasion and detection probabilities What is the chance for being detected when evading taxes?

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23 The questions What is the chance of being detected: 1.Will certainly be detected 2.Will almost certainly be detected 3.Will perhaps be detected 4.Will almost certainly not be detected 5.Will certainly not be detected


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