1. Kingsport: Demographic and Economic Context Presented to the Kingsport Economic Summit November 4, 1999 Patrick L. Phillips Senior Vice President Economics Research Associates Washington DC

2. The Tri-Cities and Peer Group Communities Key Demographic and Economic Factors Population Age Education Job Distribution and Growth Retail Sales “Lifestyles”

3. The Tri-Cities and Peer Group Communities Summary of Key Issues Slow growth Manufacturing dependent economy Older population Well-educated, but limited local resources Strong regional retail position likely to erode

4. The Tri-Cities and Peer Group Communities - Population Growth Both Kingsport and Bristol experienced a decline in population between 1990 and 1997. The population of Johnson City is expected to grow significantly between 1997 and 2002, while the populations of Kingsport and Bristol will increase only slightly. The population of Kingsport is growing at a significantly slower pace than the populations of the peer group communities, at one-fifth the state’s rate of growth.

5. The Tri-Cities and Peer Group Communities - Population Growth

6. The Tri-Cities and Peer Group Communities Population Growth

7. The Tri-Cities and Peer Group Communities Age The population of Kingsport is older, with a median age of 42.3 years. Over 21 percent of the population is over the age of 65, compared to 13 percent for the state as a whole.

8. The Tri-Cities and Peer Group Communities Age

12. The Tri-Cities and Peer Group Communities Education The population of Kingsport is relatively well educated. Nearly 19 percent of the population has earned a college degree or above, compared to less than 14 percent for the state as a whole.

13. The Tri-Cities and Peer Group Communities Education

15. The Tri-Cities and Peer Group Communities Employment Nearly 40 percent of Kingsport’s workforce is employed in manufacturing.

16. The Tri-Cities and Peer Group Communities Employment

18. The Tri-Cities and Peer Group Communities Retail Sales Kingsport enjoys relatively high retail sales per capita. In 1997, retail sales per capita in Kingsport was nearly $22,000, or twice the retail sales per capita for the state as a whole. General merchandise represents nearly 25 percent of retail sales in Kingsport. “Median location” has shifted--will Kingsport’s position fade?

19. The Tri-Cities and Peer Group Communities Retail Sales

23. The Tri-Cities and Peer Group Communities Lifestyles How does Kingsport appear on the “radar screen” of national companies? Fairly or not, “Factory and Farm Communities” represent over half of the households in Kingsport. The majority of these households are designated as “Rustbelt Neighborhoods.”

24. The Tri-Cities and Peer Group Communities Lifestyles

27. The Tri-Cities and Peer Group Communities Examples of Economic “Repositioning” Chattanooga Charleston Augusta Jacksonville Binghamton, NY Cleveland Salt Lake City