1. Human-induced climate change Why I am sceptical Professor of Geology, University of Adelaide Emeritus Professor of Earth Sciences, University of Melbourne Professor of Geology, University of Adelaide Emeritus Professor of Earth Sciences, University of Melbourne Ian Plimer Coal Preparation Association, Mackay, 13th September 2101

2. Known Cycles Variable tectonic, PDO 143 million year galactic 100,000 years orbital 41,000 years orbital 23,000 years orbital 1,500 years solar 210 years solar 87 years solar 22 years solar 18.7 years lunar 11 years solar Constant cyclical climate change

3. The next climate change: The future is written in the past Pleistocene ice age110,000 to 14,700 years ago Bölling14,700 to 13,900 years ago Older Dryas13,900 to 13,600 years ago Allerød13,600 to 12,900 years ago Younger Dryas12,900 to 11,600 years ago Holocene warming11,600 to 8,500 years ago Egyptian cooling 8,500 to 8,000 years ago Holocene Warming 8,000 to 5,600 years ago Akkadian cooling 5,600 to 3,500 years ago Minoan Warming 3,500 to 3,200 years ago Bronze Age Cooling 3,200 to 2,500 years ago Roman Warming 500 BC to 535 AD Dark Ages 535 AD to 900 AD Medieval Warming 900 AD to 1300 AD Little Ice Age 1300 AD to 1850 AD Modern Warming 1850 AD to ….

4. Climate change over time

5. Is the speed and degree of modern climate change unprecedented? 400 300 200 100 0 0 Time – Thousands of Years Before Present Temperature (°C) 6 6 4 4 2 2 0 0 -2 -4 -6 -8 -10 -12 Today

7. Cooling with increasing CO 2

8. Temperature Location, location, location…..

9. Urban heat island effect 1880 1900 1920 1940 2000 1960 1980 2020 23.5 22.0 20.0 18.5 Annual Mean Temperature (°F) Annual Mean Temperature (°F) Tucson U of Arizona (32.2N, 111.0W)

10. What is really measured? Temperature Trend per Decade 1940 - 1996 (°C) Temperature Trend per Decade 1940 - 1996 (°C) 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 0 -0.1 10,000 100,000 1,000,000 10,000,000 Population of Country 0.5

11. Reliability of surface measurements The Southern Hemisphere is the same temperature it was 28 years ago, The Northern Hemisphere has warmed slightly The Southern Hemisphere is the same temperature it was 28 years ago, The Northern Hemisphere has warmed slightly The 28 years of high quality satellite data Temperature Variation (°C) 1980 1985 1990 2000 2005 1995 1.0 0.5 0 0 -0.5 1.0 0.5 0 0 -0.5 1.0 0.5 0 0 -0.5 Southern Hemisphere Global Northern Hemisphere

12. Models for atmospheric temperature -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 0 0 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 7 Zonally-averaged distributions of predicted temperature change in °K at CO 2 doubling (2xCO 2 -control), as a function of latitude and pressure level, for four general-circulation models (Lee et al., 2007) Zonally-averaged distributions of predicted temperature change in °K at CO 2 doubling (2xCO 2 -control), as a function of latitude and pressure level, for four general-circulation models (Lee et al., 2007) 10 50 100 200 300 500 700 950 60°S 30°S EQ 30°N 60°N GFDL 10 50 100 200 300 500 700 950 60°S 30°S EQ 30°N 60°N NASA/NSIPP 10 50 100 200 300 500 700 950 60°S 30°S EQ 30°N 60°N NASA/GEOS5 10 50 100 200 300 500 700 950 60°S 30°S EQ 30°N 60°N SNU

13. Radiosonde measurements 75°N 75°S 45°N 30°N 15°N EQ 45°S 30°S 15°S 25 50 100 200 300 500 700 1000 hPa No “greenhouse warming” signature is observed in reality 24 20 16 12 8 8 4 4 Km Source: HadAT2 radiosonde observations, from CCSP (2006), p116, fig. 5.7E

16. We’ll all be rooned Sea Level (mm) 2000 1500 1000 0 0 500 1880 1900 2000 1920 1940 1960 1980 Measurement of historic sea levels Global average of tide gauges for 20 th Century sea level rise is 1-2mm/yr (IPCC, 2001) Port Pirie -0.3mm/yr Port Adelaide Outer Harbour 2.4mm/yr Fort Denison1.0mm/yr Fremantle 1.4mm/yr Southern Oscillation Index

17. Smoothing of ice core CO 2 data - why pre-industrial choice of 280ppm? 1812-2004 Northern Hemisphere, Chemical Measurement CO 2 (ppmv) 450 400 350 300 270 1810 1850 1900 1950 1970 Ice core Antarctica from 1958 Mauna Loa CO 2 5 year average Year

18. Water: Main greenhouse gas & driver of CO 2 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Water Vapour Water Vapour CO 2 Methane N2ON2O N2ON2O Misc Gases Misc Gases 0.117% 0.066% 0.047% 0.001% Man made Natural

19. Doubling CO 2 at 385ppm has no effect Atmospheric carbon dioxide in ppm Temperature (°C) 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 240 260 280 300 320 340 360 380 400 420 The warming effect of atmospheric carbon dioxide

20. Submarine volcanicity Terrestrial volcanoes change weather (e.g. Tambora 1815) Submarine supervolcanoes add heat and CO 2 to oceans and change climate (64,000km ridges) 10,000 km 3 /a of cooling water >95% Earth’s volcanoes Terrestrial volcanoes change weather (e.g. Tambora 1815) Submarine supervolcanoes add heat and CO 2 to oceans and change climate (64,000km ridges) 10,000 km 3 /a of cooling water >95% Earth’s volcanoes Seafloor Spreading 130°30’W 130°00’W 45°30’N 45°00’N 44°30’N Megaplume 2 Megaplume 1 Recent Eruptions Recent Eruptions

21. Greenland ice sheet 30 -30 10 20 -20 0 0 -10 15 -15 5 5 -5 Time – Years Before Present 1000 400 200 100 600 800 Year 1940 1955 1960 1985 1950 1945 1965 1960 1975 1980 -30 ° -40 ° -32 ° -34 ° -36 ° -38 ° -42 ° -29.5 -32 -30 -30.5 -31 -31.5 -32.5 d180 Site15 GISP2, Boltzman Strobel 1994 10per. Mov. Avg (d180 Site15 GISP2, Boltzman Strobel 1994) Greenland ice sheet change in cm/yr 80°N 75°N 70°N 65°N 60°N 70°W 60°W 40°W 20°W 50°W 80°W 30°W 5.4cm/yr increase* 5.4cm/yr increase* *Derived from 11 years of ERS-1/ERS-2 satellite altimeter data, 1992-2003

22. 30°W 30°E 0° 150°W 180° 150°E Amundsen Sea Amundsen Sea Antarctic Peninsula Antarctic Peninsula 90°W 60°E 60°W 120°W 2000 Km 120°E Is global warming melting the ice caps and reducing sea ice? NO! Antarctic Sea Ice Trends Source: Vaughn, D.G., 2005. Science, 3008, 1877-1878. 1.0 0.5 0 0 -0.5 -1.5 Year Source: National Snow and Ice data Centre 1978 1990 2000 2006 Kamb Ice Stream Kamb Ice Stream …. going up! Antarctic Land Ice Trends …. going up over most of the continent! …. going up over most of the continent!

23. Temperature proxy H 2 O (vap) buffer to maximum and minimum temperature Thousands of Years Ago Temperature (°C) 0 0 4 4 2 2 -2 -4 -6 -8 400 0 0 100 50 300 250 200 150 350 1.5 0 0.5 1.0 Dust (ppm) CO 2 (ppmv) 280 200 240 260 220

24. Calendar Years Before Present Temperature (°C) -30 -20 -10 0 0 10 20 0 0 300 500 700 1100 200 100 400 900 600 1000 800 Temperature proxy Cosmogenic isotopes (C 14; also Be 10, Al 26, Cl 36, Ca 41, Ti 44, I 129 ) 10,000BC 4,000BC 1AD 6,000BC 8,000BC 2,000BC 2000AD 100 80 60 40 20 0 0 Modern Maximum Modern Maximum Maunder Minimum Maunder Minimum Spörer Minimum Spörer Minimum Oort Minimum Oort Minimum Wolf Minimum Wolf Minimum Medieval Maximum Medieval Maximum Dalton Minimum Dalton Minimum

25. It’s easy to stop climate change - All we have to do is: STOP bacteria doing what bacteria do STOP ocean currents changing STOP plate tectonics and continent movement STOP orbital changes to Earth STOP variations in energy released from Sun STOP orbit of Solar System in Galaxy STOP supernoval eruptions STOP bacteria doing what bacteria do STOP ocean currents changing STOP plate tectonics and continent movement STOP orbital changes to Earth STOP variations in energy released from Sun STOP orbit of Solar System in Galaxy STOP supernoval eruptions When we’ve stopped these natural processes, if human-induced then: PERSUADE China and India to stay poor When we’ve stopped these natural processes, if human-induced then: PERSUADE China and India to stay poor

26. A few little problems Warmings in industrial age (1860-1880, 1910-1940, 1975-1998; CO 2 rise only correlates with 1975-1998 warming) Industrial age coolings when CO 2 increasing (1880-1910, 1940-1975, 1998-present) Peak of Little Ice Age coolings (Dalton, Maunder, Spörer, Wolf) when few sunspots; 20th Century solar maximum and no sunspots Pre-industrial Minoan, Roman and Medieval Warmings (with no sea level changes); SL rise of 130m 12,000-6,000 years ago, SL fall of 2m over last 6,000 years Greater past variability and changes Six of six great ice ages when atmospheric CO 2 up to 1000 times higher than now Arctic warming (fanfare); Antarctic, oceanic (PDO) and atmospheric cooling (silence) Warmings in industrial age (1860-1880, 1910-1940, 1975-1998; CO 2 rise only correlates with 1975-1998 warming) Industrial age coolings when CO 2 increasing (1880-1910, 1940-1975, 1998-present) Peak of Little Ice Age coolings (Dalton, Maunder, Spörer, Wolf) when few sunspots; 20th Century solar maximum and no sunspots Pre-industrial Minoan, Roman and Medieval Warmings (with no sea level changes); SL rise of 130m 12,000-6,000 years ago, SL fall of 2m over last 6,000 years Greater past variability and changes Six of six great ice ages when atmospheric CO 2 up to 1000 times higher than now Arctic warming (fanfare); Antarctic, oceanic (PDO) and atmospheric cooling (silence)