1. UNCLASSIFIED ISMOR 2005 OA for Effects-Based Operations in the Maritime Domain Maritime Warfare Centre, UK Dr Martin Fowler, Chief Scientist, MWC 023 9221 2169 email: martin.fowler@portsdown.mwc.gov.uk Mr Mike Dobson, EBA analyst, MWC 023 9221 2050 email: mdobson@dstl.gov.uk

2. UNCLASSIFIED Structure 1. Introduction to MWC 2. OA for EBO in maritime domain 3. Issues “warts and all”

3. UNCLASSIFIED Terminology n In international use, EBO is commonly favoured term n Recently UK Joint Doctrine and Concepts Centre (JDCC) renamed EBO as Effects-Based Approach to Operations (EBA2O) l EBO to refer to this overall subject l EBA for this branch of OA

4. UNCLASSIFIED Part 1 Introduction

5. UNCLASSIFIED MWC Location n Portsmouth, UK n Two sites: l Southwick - doctrine, training l Portsdown - OA, tactical development 20052006 n Due to move and co-locate to Portsmouth naval base / Fareham / ? in 2005... 2006... 2007 …?

6. UNCLASSIFIED Maritime Warfare Centre MWC Mission is to: Enhance and Evolve the Maritime Contribution to Operations n A ‘one-stop shop’ for the evolution and dissemination of maritime/joint doctrine and concepts through teaching, tactical development, operational analysis, concept development and wargaming. n Provides the focus for the development and practice of operational level warfighting, planning and decision-making n Provides reactive analytical and scientific support to the Front Line

7. UNCLASSIFIED Campaign level OA at MWC n Responsible for provision of decision-making support and tactical guidance to Maritime Component Commander (MCC) n Development of OA to support maritime contribution to EBA: l Integrate OA into maritime campaign planning and assessment including identification of: s Role of the analyst s Requirements for methodologies, MoEs and analytical tools s Balance of OA and military judgement required in campaign assessment s Information requirement to support OA in campaign assessment l Longer term: s Development of planning and decision aids s Establishment and development of knowledge bases

8. UNCLASSIFIED Part 2 OA for Maritime EBO

9. UNCLASSIFIED Strategic Effects Full n Insight n Resilience n Reassurance n Transformation n Prevention n Deterrence n Coercion n Disruption n Defeat n Destruction n Stabilisation Principal effects in maritime domain n Reassurance n Prevention n Deterrence n Coercion n Disruption n Defeat n Destruction n Stabilisation

10. UNCLASSIFIED Reassurance

11. UNCLASSIFIED Prevention

12. UNCLASSIFIED Deterrence

13. UNCLASSIFIED Coercion

14. UNCLASSIFIED Disruption Frigate intercepts ‘go-fast’ smuggler

15. UNCLASSIFIED Defeat

16. UNCLASSIFIED Destruction

17. UNCLASSIFIED Stabilisation

18. UNCLASSIFIED Nice pictures but …. n These illustrate capabilities created by equipment and personnel who may carry out actions that may produce results that may achieve Effects n A capability does not ‘deliver Effect’ n Will Effects produced be: l Intended or Unintended? l Expected or Unexpected? l Desired or Undesired? n How will we analyse Effects? n Objective: progress from high-level EBA concept to practical application of EBA in maritime domain *

19. UNCLASSIFIED Background n Much on EBA principles at strategic level n Little on EBA at operational and tactical levels, especially in maritime domain n Most OA concepts focus on strategic level n Most OA methodologies derive from air domain l Focus on ‘hard’ effects l Counting bomb craters is not EBA n Much of efficacy of naval forces is based on ‘soft’ effects

20. UNCLASSIFIED EBA Tasking for OA Operational and tactical levels in the maritime domain n Practical assessment of effects l Planning and analysis incl. MoEs l Development of knowledge bases, planning & decision aids n Consistent with EBA principles, tools and techniques elsewhere l Joint l Allied / coalition l Combined (OGDs) n Impact and inter-relationship of NEC and ISR Provide EBA planning and analysis capability to MCC “Are we winning / did we win / could we have done it better?”

21. UNCLASSIFIED EBA OA Work Programme Two options: n Exercise EBA at sea (akin to Experimentation) l With MCC (UK Maritime Battle Staff) identify suitable exercise opportunities s Exercise NORDIC SHIELD n Table Top Tactics / Wargaming l Suitable scenarios l Work through planning procedures and OA methodology Objective: develop planning and assessment procedures for MCC to use EBA in maritime domain

22. UNCLASSIFIED What / Where / When / Who / Why n What l Exercise / operation at the campaign level led by MCC l Small scale n Where l Afloat or ashore? n When l iaw RN / allied exercise programme n Who l Team size - shortage of space l Resources - other tasking n Why l Deeds not just words

23. UNCLASSIFIED How? Exercise Plan (1) Using existing MCC planning procedures: n Determine desired Effects, intended results, likely actions, required capabilities n Identify suitable: l Measures of Success (MoS) l Measures of Effectiveness (MoE) l Measures of Performance (MoP) n Identify information collection requirements (amount, timescale) to support OA to produce MoS, MoE, MoP n Include EBA assessment in exercise planning

24. UNCLASSIFIED How? Exercise Plan (2) n Assess l Availability of information l How long to analyse information - will it meet timescale of battle rhythm? l How much will MoEs contribute to commander’s decision making? l Is procedure feasible, practical and robust? n Exercise it n Provide analysis reports l Quicklook < 1 week after ENDEX l Full < 6 weeks after ENDEX

25. UNCLASSIFIED Part 3 Issues

26. UNCLASSIFIED Issues (1) n Great concept, shame about the detail... n Need for extra resources l Words are cheap, custom tools and databases are expensive l Huge information requirement & data collection task for OA n Moving goalposts l Concept keeps developing / changing l Need to press for inclusion of OA requirement in planning and assessment

27. UNCLASSIFIED Issues (2) n Reluctance of some military to get involved l Lip service paid to EBA in long term planning l Preference for military judgement over OA s Popularity of naval / military history l Lack of appreciation of complexity of analysis problem s “Don’t bother me with trivia” n Low priority given to inclusion of OA staff in exercises

28. UNCLASSIFIED Current work in OA community? (1) n Forthcoming EBA assessment in exercise n Is anybody actually analysing maritime EBA at operational campaign level right now? l Planning l Data gathering l Tools & techniques l Analysis l MoEs l Results l Inform command decision making process

29. UNCLASSIFIED Current work in OA community? (2) n Borrow best practice from others l Consistency of approach l Synergy between domains l Avoid duplication n Keen to exchange ideas and methods with other OA authorities n Linkages and inter-relationships with NEC, ISR and Experimentation

30. UNCLASSIFIED Summary n Much on EBA principles at strategic level l Most OA conceptual papers focus on strategic level n Little on EBA at operational / tactical levels, especially in maritime domain l Most OA methodologies derive from air domain l Much of efficacy of naval forces based on ‘soft’ effects n Desire to exchange information with other OA authorities, l Practising OA assessment at campaign level l Maritime interest n Synergy with parallel EBA initiatives in land and air domains n MWC intend to analyse joint exercise this autumn