3.  Average annual growth rate 2000-10: 10%  From 1990 to 2009, moved from net exporter of oil to world’s second largest net importer  World’s largest producer and consumer of coal – 46% world’s coal consumption

7. COAL  US 2010 – 1.0 billion short tons (flat or declining)  China 2010 – 3.7 billion short tons (rising) OIL  US 2010 – 19.1 million bpd  China 2010 – 9.4 million bpd

8. CHINA  Hydro –  22% capacity  Other renewables  6.2% capcity US  Hydro  6.8% capacity  7.7% energy  Other renewables  5.6% capacity  4.7% energy

10. RankRank Country Annual CO2 emissions [7][8] (in thousands of metric tonnes) [7][8] Percentage of global total World29,888,121100% 1 China [9]China [9] 7,031,91623.33% 2 United States 5,461,01418.11% - European Union (27)European Union4,177,817 [10] [10] 14.04% 3 India 1,742,6985.78% 4 Russia 1,708,6535.67% 5 Japan 1,208,1634.01% 6 Germany 786,6602.61% 7 Canada 544,0911.80% Per capita: China: 4.6 tonnes/capita US: 19.1 tonnes/capita Projections are that by 2030 China will account for ½ global 2008 emissions

11.  Authoritarian –concentrates authority in few executive agencies manned by capable and uncorrupt elites seeking to improve environmental outcomes  Democratic--spreads authority over several levels and agencies of government, including representative legislatures, and that encourages direct public participation from a wide cross-section of society

12.  “Citizen participation is limited to learning and obeying state policies.” p. 291 “A Renewable Energy Law was completed in 2004 after fewer than nine months of drafting and then passed into law with no amendments by an unelected national legislature in 2005” p. 290

13.  National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) -primary policymaking and regulatory authority in the energy sector,  National Energy Administration (NEA) (formed 2008) key energy regulator for the country  approves new energy projects  sets domestic wholesale energy prices  implements central government's energy policies,  National Energy Commission (formed 2010) – coordinate energy policy among the various agencies under the State Council

14.  China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) - leading upstream player in China  publicly-listed arm PetroChina,  together account for roughly 60 % domestic oil and 80% natural gas output  China Petroleum and Chemical Corporation (Sinopec)  downstream activities (refining and distribution)  China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC): offshore oil exploration and production

15.  Reduce emission intensity of GDP 40-45% by 2020 (over 2005 levels)  At Durban, China agreed to negotiate a legally binding treaty (including the possibility of an absolute emission cap) by 2020

16.  Can produce a rapid response to problem  But if fragmentation remains, can undermine implementation due to illegitimacy  Federalism issues  Low social concern makes authoritarianism more necessary and more difficult

17.  US energy system  Institutions  Policy

18. http://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/annual/pecss_diagram.cfm

23.  Federalism: gives extensive powers to 50 states  Separation of powers  Congress ▪ 2 equal chambers ▪ House – 435 seat elected every 2 years ▪ Senate – 2 seats per state elected every 6 years  President – elected separately every 4 years  Courts

24.  House: 50% +1  Senate: effective majority is 60%  Treaties: 2/3 rd of Senate requires  President needs to sign laws passed by Congress  If president vetos, 2/3 rd of both houses can overturn

25. Congress and president same party: working majority is 60% Congress and president different party: working majority is 67% Note contrast to Canada, China

27.  2009-10 House and Senate Democratic  2011-2014 House Republican, Senate Democratic  Current Senate: 55 D – 45 R  Current House: 201 D – 231 R

28.  1973 oil shock prompted  Creation of Department of Energy 1977  Strategic Petroleum Reserve  Corporate Average Fuel Economy Standards  Every president developed a plan but little coherence

29. 2009 State of Union: To truly transform our economy, protect our security, and save our planet from the ravages of climate change, ne need to ultimately make clean, renewable energy the profitable kind of energy

30.  2001 – US cars and trucks averaged 24.7 m.p.g.  2011 --29.6 m.p.g.  New regs: up to 55 m.p.g. by 2025  Nov 2011, Canada announced it would attempt to meet US 2025 targets Sustainable Energy Policy30

31.  Try Congress first – cap and trade  Use administration action if that fails  Core focus on auto standards  Emerging focus on coal ▪ Strong standards on new plants ▪ Uncertain about timing and strength of existing plant standards

32.  2009 – House passes Waxman-Markey  17% reduction by 2020  Riddled with concession  2010 Senate  Coalition building required giving everything away  Coalition of senators fell apart when initiative got framed as “gas tax”  “on climate change, Obama grew timid and gave up, leaving the dysfunctional Senate to figure out the issue on its own”  Personal impact

33.  As of April 2011, 32 states have RPS or Alternative Energy Portfolio Standards; another six have voluntary standards (Pew Centre on Global Climate Change, 2011)  California most aggressive – 33% by 2020

34.  California leadership  1990 levels by 2020 (30% reduction)  80% below 1990 levels by 2050  Cap and trade program now in place

36.  Global leaders in power, energy, emissions  2/5 of global GHG emission  Chinese growth core driving force  emission intensity: factor of 4 difference  Starkly different political systems  If they cooperated, enormous change possible  Prospects for meaningful cooperation?