2. Internet World Fall 2002 1 Preparing for the Next Wave Jack Powers Director, International Informatics Institute Conference Chairman, Streaming Media East Adjunct Professor, New York University

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4. 3 Next Waves  Human Capital  Hardware and Telecom in Stasis  Internet Everywhere  Pervasive Video  Software Ascendant  Real Time Enterprises  Artificial Intelligence  Ripples  Human Capital  Hardware and Telecom in Stasis  Internet Everywhere  Pervasive Video  Software Ascendant  Real Time Enterprises  Artificial Intelligence  Ripples

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7. 6 Dot Com Backlash

8. Internet World Fall 2002 7 Hardware Deflation  Walmart 850MHz Duron PC — 128MB/10GB/CD/Eth/56k/Lindows — $299 plus monitor  HP Jornada Pocket PC — 64MB Color — $649.99  IA-54, Infiniband, HyperTransport, SANs: Storage Area Networks Grid, Autonomous Computing  Walmart 850MHz Duron PC — 128MB/10GB/CD/Eth/56k/Lindows — $299 plus monitor  HP Jornada Pocket PC — 64MB Color — $649.99  IA-54, Infiniband, HyperTransport, SANs: Storage Area Networks Grid, Autonomous Computing

9. Internet World Fall 2002 8 Telecom Glut  NextWave, Teligent, 360Networks, Covad, Excite@Home...  $55B JDS Uniphase, $20B Nortel  Jack’s House — Cable Modem3.2/1$40/mo — Consumer DSL1.5/.25$40/mo — Commcl DSL1.1/1.1$200/mo 5.8/2.35$280/mo  ~4 T-1 lines, <$300/mo  NextWave, Teligent, 360Networks, Covad, Excite@Home...  $55B JDS Uniphase, $20B Nortel  Jack’s House — Cable Modem3.2/1$40/mo — Consumer DSL1.5/.25$40/mo — Commcl DSL1.1/1.1$200/mo 5.8/2.35$280/mo  ~4 T-1 lines, <$300/mo

10. Internet World Fall 2002 9 Streaming Media Acceptance  35% of adult Americans are “streamies”  83 million have tried it  38 million streamed in the past month  28% of home users have broadband — Arbitron/Edison Media Research  Peer-to-peer file sharing — 102 million Morpheus apps  35% of adult Americans are “streamies”  83 million have tried it  38 million streamed in the past month  28% of home users have broadband — Arbitron/Edison Media Research  Peer-to-peer file sharing — 102 million Morpheus apps

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12. Internet World Fall 2002 11 Internet Everywhere  Immersive IP  The Internet Home — Broadband, residential gateways — Powerline, phoneline, wireless — Entertainment, collaboration  Embedded IP  Immersive IP  The Internet Home — Broadband, residential gateways — Powerline, phoneline, wireless — Entertainment, collaboration  Embedded IP

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14. Internet World Fall 2002 13 Margharita Washing Machine

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19. Internet World Fall 2002 18 Wirefree Infrastructure  Mobile Phone Internet  Fixed wireless — 802.11b (11Mbps) 2.4Ghz — 802.11a (54MBps) 5 Ghz — 802.11g (22MBps) 2.4 Ghz — Bluetooth — Ultra Wide Band (UWB) 100MBps Not RF: Global Possibilities, Not Line of Sight  Mobile Phone Internet  Fixed wireless — 802.11b (11Mbps) 2.4Ghz — 802.11a (54MBps) 5 Ghz — 802.11g (22MBps) 2.4 Ghz — Bluetooth — Ultra Wide Band (UWB) 100MBps Not RF: Global Possibilities, Not Line of Sight

20. Internet World Fall 2002 19 3G Mobile Phones  Enhanced telephony  2Mbps data transfer  Multimedia Messaging Service  Streaming media  Enhanced telephony  2Mbps data transfer  Multimedia Messaging Service  Streaming media

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26. Internet World Fall 2002 25 Pervasive Video Jack Powers, director The Future of TV Everywhere in3.org

27. Internet World Fall 2002 26 Flat, Light & Cheap Displays  CRT: Cathode Ray Tube  LCD: Liquid Crystal Display  Plasma Display  CRT: Cathode Ray Tube  LCD: Liquid Crystal Display  Plasma Display

28. Internet World Fall 2002 27 Consumer Access & Control  DVD Players — Component — Standalone  PVR: Personal Video Recorders TiVo, Replay, SnapStream — Easy recording — Control live shows: pause, slo-mo, instant replay — Network and save programs  DVD Players — Component — Standalone  PVR: Personal Video Recorders TiVo, Replay, SnapStream — Easy recording — Control live shows: pause, slo-mo, instant replay — Network and save programs

29. Internet World Fall 2002 28 Portable & Ubiquitous Devices  PDAs, mobile phones, cars

30. Internet World Fall 2002 29 Portable & Ubiquitous Devices  Watches, pens, eyeglasses

31. Internet World Fall 2002 30 Flat, Light & Cheap Displays  OLED: Organic Light Emitting Diode

32. Internet World Fall 2002 31 Projection Displays  From wall size to super size

33. Internet World Fall 2002 32 Virtual Signs  Video signs in stores, ATMs, malls

34. Internet World Fall 2002 33 TV Unplugged  Wireless LAN and WAN networking — WiFi, Bluetooth, UWB  Pocket-sized TVs  Pocket-sized cameras  TV anywhere  Wireless LAN and WAN networking — WiFi, Bluetooth, UWB  Pocket-sized TVs  Pocket-sized cameras  TV anywhere

35. Internet World Fall 2002 34 Software Ascendant  Hardware budgets slashed — CTO as IT decision maker  Hardware margins shrinking  IT Dissatisfaction  Hardware budgets slashed — CTO as IT decision maker  Hardware margins shrinking  IT Dissatisfaction

36. Internet World Fall 2002 35 Real Time Enterprise  ERP, EAI, SCM, CRM, BAM, EI EI O  Apply technology to run faster and smarter... — Real Time Finance — Real Time Customer Service — Real Time Retailing — Real Time Logistics  ERP, EAI, SCM, CRM, BAM, EI EI O  Apply technology to run faster and smarter... — Real Time Finance — Real Time Customer Service — Real Time Retailing — Real Time Logistics

37. Internet World Fall 2002 36 Web Application Services  IBM Websphere  Sun ONE  Microsoft.NET  Lots of vendor push  Not much user pull  IBM Websphere  Sun ONE  Microsoft.NET  Lots of vendor push  Not much user pull

38. Internet World Fall 2002 37 Web Application Services  Network Software Platform  SOAP: Simple Object Access Protocol  UDDI: Universal Description, Discovery, and Integration  WSDL: Web Services Description Language  WSFL: Web Service Flow Language  Network Software Platform  SOAP: Simple Object Access Protocol  UDDI: Universal Description, Discovery, and Integration  WSDL: Web Services Description Language  WSFL: Web Service Flow Language

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41. Internet World Fall 2002 40 Artificial Intelligence  Systems that Learn, Judge and Act  Expert Systems  Machine Learning  XML Standardization  Intelligent Agents — “Know” Bots — Shopping Bots — Personalization Bots  Systems that Learn, Judge and Act  Expert Systems  Machine Learning  XML Standardization  Intelligent Agents — “Know” Bots — Shopping Bots — Personalization Bots

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47. Internet World Fall 2002 46 Content AI  Tagging program data in XML Pictron, TV-Anytime — manually or semiautomatically  Tagging program data in XML Pictron, TV-Anytime — manually or semiautomatically

48. Internet World Fall 2002 47 Content AI  Intelligent program guides  LEARNING about user preferences overtly or covertly  JUDGING which programs are the best match  ACTING as an entertainment agent to retrieve, record, search – or someday create – video content  Intelligent program guides  LEARNING about user preferences overtly or covertly  JUDGING which programs are the best match  ACTING as an entertainment agent to retrieve, record, search – or someday create – video content

49. Internet World Fall 2002 48 Content AI  Machine Vision

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52. Internet World Fall 2002 51 Waves  Human Capital  Hardware and Telecom in Stasis  Software Ascendant  Real Time Enterprises  Internet Everywhere  Artificial Intelligence  Ripples  Human Capital  Hardware and Telecom in Stasis  Software Ascendant  Real Time Enterprises  Internet Everywhere  Artificial Intelligence  Ripples

53. Internet World Fall 2002 52 Ripples  Internet Voice  Telematics  Browser wars  Copyright, licensing and Open Source  Privacy and trust issues  Internet Voice  Telematics  Browser wars  Copyright, licensing and Open Source  Privacy and trust issues

54. Internet World Fall 2002 53 Internet Voice  Voice Response — VoiceXML  Voice Control — Conversa  Voice Access — TellMe, Etrieve, BeVocal  Voice Response — VoiceXML  Voice Control — Conversa  Voice Access — TellMe, Etrieve, BeVocal

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57. Internet World Fall 2002 56 Browser Wars  Internet Explorer vs Netscape vs Opera  Wireless Access Protocol  Palm VII Web clipping  Avantgo  Limited appliances  Voice  Internet Explorer vs Netscape vs Opera  Wireless Access Protocol  Palm VII Web clipping  Avantgo  Limited appliances  Voice

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59. Internet World Fall 2002 58 Real Time Society