2. Crime Waves and the Need for Multi- Agency Report Cards of Early Indicators of Community Crime Rolf Loeber University of Pittsburgh/ Free University, Amsterdam, Netherlands

3. * Is it possible to predict crime waves? * What are community needs for indicators of future crime waves? * What would be the role of interagency collaboration in this? Key questions

5. Homicide rate dramatically decreased in Europe from the middle ages on Source: Eisner, 2004 Persons killed per total population of 100,000 (logarithmic scale) Year

6. The current level of homicide in the U.S. is about where Europe was three centuries ago. Source: Eisner, 2004 Persons killed per total population of 100,000 Year

7. Some hypotheses concerning the origins of community crime trends: Community crime trends are not a function of chance. Community crime trends are sum of age-crime curves of successive age cohorts. Crime trends are most influenced by peak offending age of juveniles, and by high-rate offenders. Peak offending age may vary. Number of high-rate offenders may vary from age cohort to age cohort.

8. Sample Differences in Reported Violence Age crime curve. Youngest sample Age crime curve. Oldest sample

9. What are the best predictors of violence? Some results from the Pittsburgh Youth Study

10. Proportion of Boys Committing Violent Offenses for Different Levels of Risk (based on 11 risk factors out of 51 significant bivariate risk factors) Source: Loeber et al., 2005

11. Predictors of Violence and Agency/Department Which Can Record Information Predictors: Agency/Department Low SESCensus Family on welfare Census Bad neighborhoodCensus Low school motivation Education TruancyEducation High parental stress? Delinquency before 10Justice Cruel to peopleHealth and Human Services Depressed moodHealth and Human Services Physical aggressionHealth and Human Services Callous/unemotionalHealth and Human Services Source: Loeber et al., 2005

12. Predictors of Differences in Violence in Different Cohorts and Agency Which Can Record Information PredictorAgency/Department Held back in schoolEducation Gun carryingJustice Gang membershipJustice Drug dealingJustice/Drug Control Hard drug useJustice/Drug Control Neighborhood % unemployedCensus Neighborhood median household size Census Period effects? Source: Fabio, Loeber et al., 2006

13. Example of useful data on risk factors (Pennsylvania) (1) Source: Casey Foundation Kids Count (accessed 5-8-05)

14. Example of useful data on risk factors (Pennsylvania) (2) Source: Casey Foundation Kids Count (accessed 5-8-05)

15. A visual representation of a city’s total aggregated risk factors.

16. Do we have the right information? (1) Examples of risk factor surveys and surveys of general well-being: The Healthy Youth! survey, from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). The Youth Risk Behavior Surveillance System, sponsored by the CDC, currently does not have data for Pittsburgh. The Casey Foundation Kids Count provides data for Pennsylvania, but not more detailed.

17. Do we have the right information? (2) Indicators of School Crime and Safety, sponsored by the Bureau of Justice Statistics, is not available on the neighborhood level. Risk Factors for Juvenile Delinquency and Youth Gang Involvement (National Youth Gang Center, 2005).

18. TIME FOR CHANGE? (1) A major choice to make: Continue with mostly reactive systems of intervention that address juvenile delinquency? Expand proactive systems of intervention?

19. TIME FOR CHANGE? (2) Put together Council working group to explore early marker systems and report on available data sources, barriers and feasibility issues. Explore options to tie in with existing programs (e.g., Helping America’s Youth initiative). Council’s early marker approaches could be used to support state and county development of local early marker systems.