1. Migration Statistics in Russian Federation: basic problems and possible solutions Olga Chudinovskikh Moscow State University olga@mail.econ.msu.ru

2. Des données statistques sur des migrations internes n'existent pas même dans des pays où une collècte des statistiques démographiques est bien organisée...., les migrations internationales sont mesurées très approximativement, et un enregistrement des migrations internes est encore pire. (Roland Pressat L'Analyse Démographique. Méthodes, résultats, applications. PUF, Paris, 1961) «Статистические данные о внутренних миграциях отсутствуют часто даже в таких странах, где демографическая статистика хорошо поставлена,… международные миграции измеряются очень приближенно, а миграция внутри страны учитывается еще хуже» (Пресса Р. Народонаселение и его изучение. Демографический анализ), М. 1966,, с.10).

3. Plan 1.Basic problems of RF statistics of migration 2.General scheme of national systems of migration data collection in RF – assessment of quality and accessibility 3.Annual (current) statistics of migration – changes in migration identification criterion as the reason of low quality of data. 4.Refugees and asylum seekers, labour migrants, border statistics. 5.Reasons and consequences of contemporary situation in migration data collection in RF 6.Possible ways out and solutions

4. Main migration data systems in Russia 2-11- parts of Central data bank of foreigners (in future) Authority Quality of data and methodology Availability 1 Current statistics of migrants (based on registration procedure) – both foreign and internal flows Ministry of home affairs/ Federal statistics service Unsatisfactory, considerable underestimation Available 2 Data on permits on arrival for residence (foreigners) and departure for residence (Russian citizens) Ministry of home affairsModerate. Not processed since 2002. Was partially available up to 2002 3 Data on refugees and asylum seekersMinistry of home affairs (Federal migration service- FMS) SatisfactoryAvailable 4 Data on work permits for foreign employees and Russian citizens l employed abroad via Russian employment agencies Ministry of home affairs (FMS) Unsatisfactory, considerable underestimation Available 5 Data on residence permits and permissions for temporary residence Ministry of home affairs (FMS) No information on methodology Not available 6 Migration cards statisticsMinistry of home affairs (FMS) No information on methodology Not available 7 Border statisticsFederal security service (Federal Border Service) No information on methodology Partially available 8 Data on foreign studentsMinistry of science and education SatisfactoryAvailable 9 Visas and invitations statisticsMinistry of foreign affairs No information on methodology Not available 10 Ministry of Taxes dataMinistry of TaxesNo information on methodology Not available 11 Population CensusFederal statistics serviceSatisfactoryAvailable

5. Basic problems in the sphere of migration data sources in RF Main data source - annual (current) statistics of migration (based on registration) – has no adequate primary data for processing, new alternative systems were not created yet or are at the first stage of creation. Other sources of data are involved into operation, as a rule they do not satisfy criteria of reliability or accuracy. Major part of sample surveys are incomparable or not representative. Open official statistics is substituted with closed administrative sources of data, whose principles of data collecting and processing are obscure and quality of information can not be estimated. Russian Federation does not have national system of migration data collection which can provide reliable information on situation in general. There is an obvious and increasing lack in reliable data about flows and socio-demographic parameters of migrants. Incomplete data became probably the only source of information about migrants.

6. № of the question Primary information source of current statistics –”Coupon of statistical enumeration of a migrant” (Statistical form № 12)* 1,2,3Name, patronymic and surname12 Reason for move (9 variants) 4 Date of birth 13Sphere of occupation in the previous place of residence (15 variants). 5 Place of birth (detailed) 14Kind of job in the previous place of residence (5 variants) 6 Sex 15Kind of social welfare in the previous place of residence(for people of post-labour ages) 7 Citizenship 16 Education (6 variants) 8 Ethnicity 17Marital status (4 variants) 9 New place of residence (full address) 18If before migration had lived with family than arrived with …(all family members, part of the family, alone, had lived alone ) 10 Previous place of residence (detailed) 19If a part of the family already lives in the place of destination (yes or no) 11Have lived in the previous place of residence since________(year) 20 Name, sex and date of birth of children under 14 (if arrived with adult migrant) * red font – Processed data21 Date of filling in the form (date of registration)

7. Changes in migrants’ identification criteria: Before 1996- period of stay not less that 45 days, person must cross the border of administrative unit within Russia (internal migration) or RF border Criteria -time and space + place of residence (same methodology used both for RF citizens and foreigners- former USSR citizens)-. Temporary and permanent registration. Since 1996 (new rules of RF citizens registration)– Two types of registration : by place of residence (migrants are included into stat. observation) and by place of stay (not included into stat. observation), before 2002 – no limits of prolongation of registration (180 days each), since 2002 – foreigners are registered only for 90 days (12 months legal labour migrant). Police accumulates data only about number of registrations not migrants, (and does not estimate separately primary registrations and prolongations). Primary document (Form #12) is filled in only for migrants registered by place of residence - Criterion - place of official residence What happened to foreign migration registration? Reasons of flows underestimation. 1997 – Special decision of Government - rules (1995) are officially proliferated on foreign citizens 2000. X. - foreigners need to get residence permit to be registered (many migrants are excluded from observation), 2002- New Law on foreigners’ status – foreigners should not be observed by current statistics (theoretically)- (additional criterion – citizenship). May 2002 - Decision of 1997 is officially abolished.

8. Influence of criteria change on estimated volumes of foreign migration in Russian Federation (Current statistics data, persons)

9. Underestimation of migration by Federal statistics. Pattern of foreign educational migration. Persons.

10. Typical mistakes in primary information collection Primary forms are not filled in for some migrants which must be included into statistical observation. Vice versa: forms are filled in for people, who should not be included into observation (newborn children, people getting new or changing old passports, residential mobility) Primary forms partially are not forwarded to statistics bureaus Children under 14 y. o. are included into forms of both parents Questions left without answers, Inaccuracy in answers

11. Reasons of annual statistics unsatisfactory quality Underestimation of arrivals  Wrong migrants identification criterion – migrants with «temporary» registration are excluded from estimation.  Foreign citizens (theoretically) are excluded from estimation (since 2002) according to new rules of registration  Absence of unified methodology of migrants registration all over the country.  Long-term labour and educational migrants are excluded from statistical observation - published data on reasons for move do not reflect real situation (are incorrect). Underestimation of departures

12. Reasons for move (current statistics of migration) International migration (arrivals)Internal migration Year 1997200319972003 Education 3,6%2,7% 12,9%9,1% Job 17,6%5,9% 19,1%11,6% Previous place of residence 9,4%12,5%16,0%17,1% Ethnic conflicts aggravation 12,7%5,2% 0,5%0,1% Increase in crime 0,9%0,3%0,1%0,0% Ecological troubles 0,5%0,2% Climate 0,3% Private and family reasons 49,8%66,6%45,1%56,2% Other reasons 5,3%6,3%5,8%5,5%

13. Categories of foreign migrants covered by Census- 2002 program Full census program (questionnaire) covered: 1.Foreign citizens and stateless persons – residents of Russian Federation 2.Persons officially employed in RF (in Russian and foreign organizations and enterprises) and students - if intended to stay in Russia for more that 1 year 3.Asylum seekers Short census program covered: 1.Foreign residents who stayed in Russia temporarily and intended to stay here less than for 1 year 2.Tourists, patients in hospitals, private guests, transit migrants Main results – 1 mln – citizens of foreign countries, 1,3 mln- did not identify citizenship, 40 thous. – have double citizenship.

14. Questions related to migration in the Census-2002 program Place of birth Citizenship Had lived in the place of residence since birth / not since birth If not – since what year Arrived from: rural or urban area Where lived in 1989

15. Statistics of forced migrants and asylum seekers: Previous place of residence (accumulated and registered during the year under review) New place of residence (RF regions) Number of applications for refugee status Number of refugees by place of origin and place of destination Age and sex composition Level of education Ethnicity Etc. 20022003 Accumulated figures of registered migrants by 1 January 2004 since beginning of registration Forced migrants total including: Forced migrant s total including: Forced migrants total including forced re- settlers refuge es forced re- settlers refuge es forced re- settlers (since 1 July 1992) refugees (since 20 March 1993) Total20504204535147264668583607963520718725

16. Labour migration statistics –visible part of an iceberg, (both in- and out migration) (2003 - 378.000 work permits, stock of irregular migrants - appr. 2 - 5 mln) Basic problems (besides underestimation of flow): Some categories of foreign citizens are not included into estimation (Byelorussians) Primary work permits and prolonged permits are not estimated separately Duration of contract is not estimated

17. Labour migration statistics (available tables and data), defined by Goskomstat decision (2001) Foreign workers in RF I. Age and sex structure II. Volume of foreign workers by countries of origin III. Distribution of foreign workers by spheres of occupation and countries of origin IV. Distribution of foreign workers by forms of contract. V. Distribution of foreign workers by forms of employment in RF VI.Distribution of foreign workers by spheres of national economy. RF citizens employed abroad I. Age and sex structure of RF citizens employed abroad II. Distribution of RF workers by countries of destination, level of education, period of employment according to contract. III. Distribution of RF citizens by categories of employment IV. Distribution of RF citizens employed abroad by forms of occupation V. Professional composition of RF citizens employed abroad

18. Available (published) Border statistics : Foreign citizens’ purposes of trip and countries of origin/ destination Country of origin / (destination) 2002 Purpose of trip (entries) ServiceTourismPrivate Reside nce Transit Assistant personnel Total Total (entries / (departures) 3014159 3105563 15159067 12338 524335 1493249 23308711 Citizens of : CIS and Baltic countries: 1246973 578249 13951382 11711 429592 838786 17056693 Byelorussia 49667 15631 95602 370 23721 12501 197492 Kazakhstan, etc. 119710 36677 2499082 5425 114599 180500 2955993 Other countries: ….

19. RF Federal border service data on entries/ departures of foreign citizens, (millions) Year19992000200120022003 Arrivals18,921,221,623,322.5 Departures14,317,918,720,920.6 Residual4,53,32,92,41,9

20. Pseudo “Net migration” in exchange with developed countries, RF Federal Border service data (persons). 200020012002 Great Britain-4526-3983 2746 Germany-20410-7340 6452 USA-90878753 2001 Finland6035-49821- 16678 France-1261-438- 9603 Sweden4060-505 2380 Japan-45333085 596

21. Foreign citizens registration data bank (Planned to be created by January 2006), Responsible authority – Federal Migration service Stage 1 (Ministry of home affairs data) 1.Migration cards information on arrivals and departures of foreigners 2.Data on refugees and asylum seekers 3.Labour migrants data (work permits data) Stage 2 (Ministry of home affairs data) 4.Residence permits, temporary residence permits and stay permits 5.Information on crimes committed against foreigners and by foreigners Stage 3 (other ministries data) 6.Federal border service data 7.Visas and invitations statistics 8.Customs Committee data 9.Ministry of taxes data 10.Other ministries and authorities data on foreigners Stage 4 Information exchange and distribution (rules are not defined)

22. Main considerations which must be taken into account when introducing new systems of data collection The overall feasibility of the introduction of the new data collecting system or the change of the existing one The cost related to the change or introduction of the new data collection system or the change of the existing one The respect of national rules on legal, administrative and statistical aspects The consideration of national problematic related to international migration and related national susceptibilities or sensibilities Interest from the side of the authorities (new data collection systems will not be introduced in administrative rules unless they are required for administrative purpose) (Poulain M., Perrin N. Is the measurement of international migration flows improving in Europe? GeDAP- Universite Catholique de Louvain, May 2001. ?, p.15) One more consideration - Readiness of personnel, responsible for data collecting or processing to work under new conditions.

23. Why do we have such serious problems in the sphere of migration statistics? (Objective and subjective reasons) RF had no traditions in the field of international migration statistics. Permanent gap between a) legislation and institutional base and b) demands of changing geo-political conditions. Lack of efficient control of data collection and processing quality Problems of financial, technical and cadre resources in the sphere of migration data collection. Lack of co-operation between authorities responsible for different systems of data collection. Deficit in co-operation with international experts and institutes in the sphere of migration data collecting and implementation Absence of discussion between data collectors, processors and users in Russian Federation

24. What are the consequences of situation (possible and real) ? Existing systems can hardly provide reliable information to measure migration flows, describe their structure and analyse their reasons and consequences. Incompetent interpretation of data creates conditions for speculations on irregular migration problem and influence public opinion. It is one of the main reasons of limiting and suppressive approaches in RF migration policy. Lack of reliable statistical information leaves migration policy without correct “landmarks”, causes growth of its costs and risks.

25. Possible ways out and solutions 1)Legislation in the sphere of data collection, processing and distribution must be revised and changed. 2)Migrants’ identification criteria must be revised, methodology of current statistics collection should include all long-term migrants. Special measures to exclude double count (if migrant changes his/ her status) must be worked out. 3)Creation of Foreign citizens central data bank must be widely discussed with potential users. 4)Discussions between data collectors and users must become regular, questions of data quality, overlapping and combination should be professionally discussed. 5)Principles of data collection and processing within different administrative data sources must be published. 6) Limitations in access to data and related information must be revised. 7)Sample surveys should be possibly conducted to solve most complicated problems of migration analysis.

26. “Comparability of international statistics is so low that it frequently stops the development of a correct analysis”. (Poulain M., Perrin N. Is the measurement of international migration flows improving in Europe? 2001)

27. Additional materials

28. Foreign migration in RF (Goskomstat data, persons) 19992000200120022003 In-migration379726359330193450184612129144 Out-migration21496314572012116610668594018 Net-migration164763213610722847792735126

29. Migrations between Russia and former Soviet Republics (source-M.Denissenko)