1. Europes Population in Transition Population challenges in the wider Europe Ray Hall Queen Mary, University of London

2. Objectives To understand Europes changing demography and its global context Consider changing fertility and its impact on households Second demographic transition? Challenge of migration Policy issues and future for Europe?

3. Europe in a global context Fundamental transitions in European demography over last 25 years End of Soviet Union 1991 Accession of 10 central and eastern European states to EU 2004 Europes share of global population declining - from over 13% in 1990 to around 11% today - to estimated 7% 2050 Image has been removed for copyright reasons

4. European demography 2005: 815 million (56% EU) Very low or declining rates of growth 2007: -0.1% (+0.2% N; -0.4% E) Pace of migration increased since 2004: out-migration in east; in- migration in west and south Reproduced from European Population Committee of the Council of Europe (2005) Recent demographic developments in Europe 2005. © Council of Europe

5. Fertility Driver of low rates of growth Western Europe peak fertility 1965 – since then decline, particularly in south, to very low levels Since 1989 - central Europe even lower rates - TFR around 1 for part of 1990s Reproduced from European Population Committee of the Council of Europe (2005) Recent demographic developments in Europe 2005. © Council of Europe

6. Fertility: European contrasts In 2000s - increase of fertility in north and west – France, Scandinavia, UK (1.8 in 2007) Very low rates in south and east (1.3 in 2007) But all below replacement levels Is low fertility a problem? Image has been removed for copyright reasons

7. Fertility and second demographic transition European fertility has fallen to very low rates Why? Will it change? Images have been removed for copyright reasons

8. Second demographic transition Concept developed 1986 Dirk van de Kaa and Ron Lesthaeghe Contrast with first demographic transition (Thompson/Notestein) First DTR (from c.1870) economic development/Child King, with fewer high quality children Second DTR (from c.1970) social change/ individualism/Self King, with delayed or no childbearing; very low fertility

9. Family and household changes Later childbearing Extra marital childbearing (over 40% Scandinavia, UK) No marriage or later marriage Rise in divorce (1 in 3 marriages end in divorce UK) Impacts on households – more one- and two- person households

10. Family and household change Later childbearing Particularly in north and west - UK and Spain oldest mothers (29+) Extra marital births 1970 very low (8% UK) 1990 15% Europe; 2004 over 28% and over 40% Sweden, UK, France; low S. & E. Reproduced from European Population Committee of the Council of Europe (2005) Recent demographic developments in Europe 2005. © Council of Europe

11. Changing families Declining marriage rate: low rates in much of Europe; decline in central/eastern Europe from 1990 and later marriage - 28 and older, but east - west contrasts Reproduced from European Population Committee of the Council of Europe (2005) Recent demographic developments in Europe 2005. © Council of Europe

12. Changing families Rising divorce rates from 1970 in northern Europe North - south contrast - function of law and social attitudes Reproduced from European Population Committee of the Council of Europe (2005) Recent demographic developments in Europe 2005. © Council of Europe

13. Impact on households Rising numbers Smaller size Changing structure more non-traditional: 1 person; LAT; Same sex; unrelated Increasing fluidity Spatial impacts of household change

14. Increasing life expectancy Continuing improvements in life expectancy, esp. among older age groups and women East-west contrasts in life expectancy; south has some of highest life expectancies Reproduced from European Population Committee of the Council of Europe (2005) Recent demographic developments in Europe 2005. © Council of Europe

15. Ageing population Low fertility and high life expectancy lead to higher proportions of older people By 2050 EU will have: lost 48m people of working age, but gained 58m over 65 Ratio under 65 : over 65 2004 = 4 : 1 2050 = 2 : 1 Is this a problem? Images have been removed for copyright reasons

16. Migration solution to ageing population? Europe a continent of emigrants in 19th and early 20th centuries 1945 on: in-migration - in waves to northern and western Europe up to 1970s Southern Europe – out-migration particularly to northern Europe Image has been removed for copyright reasons

17. Migration 1980s: slow increase in migration - particularly to W. Germany from Poland and Soviet Union 1990s: increase in outmigration forecast - but barriers to movement to EU Increase in illegal (undocumented) migration - eg from former Yugoslavia, Africa Reproduced from European Population Committee of the Council of Europe (2005) Recent demographic developments in Europe 2005. © Council of Europe

18. Migration in 1990s and 2000s Increasing movement of highly skilled workers Increasing movement between EU States - for work and retirement Young French to London; Britons to France and Spain Images have been removed for copyright reasons

19. May 2004 and New Accession States Free movement of labour permitted by UK, Ireland and Sweden … past experience and several studies of the prospective enlargement have failed to indicate that further large scale movements from the new to the existing member states will occur (Migration EU Study 2005 J.Salt) Migration that occurred was unexpected (13,000 a year predicted by UK) and on an unprecedented scale At least one million migrants and probably more since 2004 to UK from NAS

20. Migration to UK Most migrants from Poland At least one million Throughout urban and rural Britain Crewe has one of highest concentrations Impact on rural and urban economies Image has been removed for copyright reasons

21. Polish migration Push factors: High unemployment (12%) Low wages Housing shortage (estd 2m units) - young Pole might get a job but is likely to have to live at home with parents in small flat

22. Impacts of international migration UK population fastest growth since 1960s: 500 a day over last 5 years Net increase of 0.7 million young women 1996-2006 Foreign-born women contributing to increase in birth rate: 2001 15% births to foreign born women 2006 21% births Continuing higher birth rate likely

23. UK projections (2007) to 2031 2006: 60.6 million 2031 : 71million, with 53% due to natural increase 47% due to migration 65yrs+ make up 22% of population by 2031 Image has been removed for copyright reasons

24. Impacts in central/eastern Europe Shrinking cities Former East Germany; old industrial centres of Poland, Czech Republic Old left as young leave Empty houses/lack of services/ and young people to revitalize economy

25. Conclusions: 1 Europes population in transition Period of intense population change Highly fluid populations - migrants mobile - maintain links and contact with country of origin Fertility / mortality / migration - interact with each other - second demographic transition has to include migration (second mobility transition) Diasporic populations raise questions of identity - changing nature of personal and national identity

26. 2 Local and global are intricately related Local and national Local population change and household growth - increasing demand for housing - pressures on land and services Ageing population - implications for labour force, pensions, social and medical provision

27. 3 Impacts of global population growth are being felt in Europe Continuing rise in food /energy prices as global populations grow Pressures on environment both from global and local population growth Continuing and increasing migration pressures from elsewhere in world Europe will be made up of increasingly diverse populations

28. 4 Population issues integral to a range of policy debates Housing Families Ageing population Migration Environment/global warming European and global perspective is essential for real understanding of local and national population challenges