2. ANU TREVOR SWAN DISTINGUISHED LECTURES IN ECONOMICS CHARTING THE COURSE TOWARDS A LOW CARBON ECONOMY Dr Martin Parkinson Secretary, Department of Climate Change 27 November 2008

3. Australia’s emissions reductions under four scenarios and corresponding GNP per capita

4. Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing (not covered prior to 2015), 24% Buildings and construction (upstream coverage), 21% Transport (coverage at point of sale), 15% Industry and mining (coverage at point of emissions), 40% Australian emissions by major sector, 2006

5. Australian emissions 2006 and 2020

6. Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing (not covered prior to 2015), 24% Buildings and construction (upstream coverage), 21% Transport (coverage at point of sale), 15% Industry and mining (coverage at point of emissions), 40% Australian emissions by major sector, 2006

7. Pollution Climate damage Information Bounded rationality Investment Split incentives Infrastructure Economies of scale Innovation Industry and mining Buildings and construction Transport Agriculture Potential market failures relevant to emissions reduction policy

8. Pollution Climate damage Information Bounded rationality Investment Split incentives Infrastructure Economies of scale Innovation Industry and mining Buildings and construction Transport Agriculture Likelihood of market failure types by sector

9. Global emissions allocationsGross world product per capita Note: In the CPRS scenarios, global emissions are not restricted until 2025. Before 2025, global emission allocations are the sum of the allocations to participants and the reference scenario emissions of non-participants. Source: Treasury estimates from GTEM. Note: Values are US$ trillion, 2005 PPP weights Source: Treasury estimates from GTEM Global emissions allocations and corresponding GWP per capita

10. Per capita emissions allocations in selected countries under the CPRS–15 scenario

11. Per capita income in selected countries under the CPRS–15 scenario