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Published byCharlotte Hood Modified over 9 years ago
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Global Market Overview/ Tactical Asset Allocation Basics Denver, CO September 29, 2010
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Global Major Trend Index: Currently Positive…Suggests Global Markets Can Move Higher INTRINSIC VALUE - 21 Indicators.....current net reading of +89 Global Markets Considered To Be Undervalued. ECONOMIC-INTEREST RATES- INFLATION - 15 Indicators, net reading of -12 Deflation, Slower Growth, Rising Government Deficits. ATTITUDINAL - 22 Indicators, net reading of -64 Mixed Signals Of Optimism/Pessimism MOMENTUM-BREADTH-DIVERGENCE - 41 Indicators, net reading of +186 Technical work is decisively positive. TOTAL = 99 indicators, calculated weekly.....current net reading of +199. Ratio of positive to negative points = 1.30 (0.95 to 1.05 is Neutral)
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Global Equity Valuations (Ex-US): Room For Multiple Expansion
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Emerging Market Equity Valuations: Room For Multiple Expansion
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Global Equity Valuations: Comparatively Cheap To U.S.
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U.S. Equity Valuations: Not As Much Room For Multiple Expansion
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Global Equity Valuations
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The Long Term Performance Impact Of Valuations:
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Money Flows: Contrarian Indicator
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A Lead On The Global Economy
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Global Stock Bond Performance
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Dividend Payers Outperform After CLI Peaks
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Global Asset Allocation Structure Global MTI Went Positive Mid-September 68% GLOBAL EQUITIES: Increased (Net Exposure 60%) 8% EQUITY HEDGE: No Planned Change 15% INCOME: No Planned Change (Net Exposure 13%) 4% Global Government Bonds: Now made up of Brazilian and Australian government bonds, as well as Emerging Country Fixed Income ETFs. 4% Corporate Bond Funds: The two funds are now up 5.8% YTD. 4% High Yield Bonds: Yield spread is now considered neutral. 2% Treasury Inflation Protection Bonds (TIPS): Inflation is expected to pick up, and this holding should help in that environment. 1% Convertible Bonds: Focus is only on Foreign Convertible securities. 2% FIXED INCOME HEDGE: No Planned Change The Fixed Income Hedge was established in September 2009 and is made up of a short holding in U.S. T-bonds. 4% REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT TRUSTS: No Planned Change Position made up of mortgage REITs, along with a global real estate fund. 4% PHYSICAL METALS: Increased An additional 1% of assets was committed here in early September due to our concern about inflation implications. Gold is now 3.1% of assets and Silver is 0.9%. 27% CASH EQUIVALENTS: Increased
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Global Equity Portfolio Structure
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S&P 500 Technical Similarities With The Past
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Mid Term Exams
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Asset Allocation Principles
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Benenefits of Disciplined Tactical Asset Allocation
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Tactical Asset Allocation Basics
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