2. Virginia Yield Trend -8.5 +10.7 y = 1.2755x - 2445.3 R 2 = 0.0765 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 198519901995200020052010 Grain Yield, bu/ac USDA, NASS, 2008

3. Crop Value to Virginia 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 19901991199219931994 19951996199719981999200020012002 200320042005 20062007 Crop Value, Million $ USDA, NASS, 2008

4. Virginia Planted Acres 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 19901991199219931994 19951996199719981999200020012002 200320042005 20062007 Planted Acres, 1000's USDA, NASS, 2008

5. December 2008 Corn CBOT.com 3/12/08

6. Current Research Topics

8. Examples 3000 lb (DM) of Vetch as a cover crop can produce 80 lb N/ac. Cover crop needs to grow until early May to achieve this much DM. How much yield do I give up by planting at this later date?

9. Delayed Planting? 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 Best yield75% percentile Median yield25% percentile Worst yield 10-May 20-Apr Modeled Grain Yield, bu/ac 14.2 4.6

11. The vigor of the leaves and the ratio of plant to soil affect NDVI values The vigor of the leaves and the ratio of plant to soil affect NDVI values What the Sensor “Sees”

12. Note that the biomass of each plant is observable in NDVI value

13. N Application Model

14. l Compare grain yields following sensor-based, variable-rate N applications and standard in-season Nrecommendations for Virginia l Compare grain yields following sensor-based, variable-rate N applications and standard in-season Nrecommendations for Virginia Large Scale Strip Trials

15. The System Wheat –16 Studies Corn –11 Studies LB N/ACBU/AC STD65.685.9 GS61.285 STD-GS-4.4-0.8 LB N/ACBU/AC STD100147.9 GS79.1148.5 STD-GS-20.90.7

17. y = 0.0014x + 110.37 R 2 = 0.6138 y = 0.0021x + 82.01 R 2 = 0.8312 y = -0.0003x + 154.31 R 2 = 0.4189 y = 0.0009x + 120.08 R 2 = 0.3072 130 135 140 145 150 155 160 165 170 2500027000290003100033000350003700039000 Plants/ac Yield, bu/ac 15 Inch20 Inch 30 Inch Twin 30 Inch

18. Price Paid to Farmers/Bu Corn USDA, NASS, 2008

19. Corn is king -- and therefore a growing problem –Increasing dependence on the grain leaves the U.S. vulnerable to drought-induced price spikes in food and fuel. Jerry Hirsch, Los Angeles Times March, 2008

20. Rick Tolman, NCGA

23. In January, China levied export tariffs of 5% for corn, rice and soybeans and 20% for wheat to keep grains from leaving the country. The Russian government has increased grain export tariffs by 40% - Jan 30, 2008 Argentina and other nations also are placing tariffs on grain exports to protect their food supplies.

25. NCGA

26. Corn Nutrient Efficiency 0.61 1.33 1.05 0.84 2.1 1.65 1.03 2.89 2.49 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 NitrogenPhosphorusPotassium Bushels of Grain/ lb Fertilizer 1980 1990 2005

27. World Wheat Production

30. US Winter Wheat Production 0 50000 100000 150000 200000 250000 300000 Kansas Texas Washington Oklahoma South Dakota Colorado Nebraska Montana Virginia Production (1000 bu) 24 th of 42 States USDA, NASS

31. Virginia Wheat 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 19901991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006 Wheat Value (million $) USDA, NASS

32. Virginia Wheat Yield USDA, NASS

33. $ !

34. World Wheat Stocks 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 2002200320042005200620072008 Stocks:Use Ratio Production Disappearance Lowest since 1948 FAO

35. Future directions for VA Increased Value Small Grain Crops –Bread Wheat –Durum Wheat –Other IP Wheat Opportunities Strong gluten Super soft –Hulless Barley

36. Survey What price/bushel level would it take for you to re- introduce wheat on your farm or increase wheat acreage? 6% $3.50-3.75 28% $3.76-4.00 48%$4.01 + 17% Do not plan to grow wheat regardless of price

37. Wheat Prices, CBOT & KCBOT AVG. of $0.40/bu or more

38. 2006 – ~ 2.2 M bushels of SRW ~ 5 M bushels HRW

40. 2007 – ~ 10.5 M bushels/year ~ 6 M bushels Durum

41. Durum and Soft Red Winter Wheat Durum wheat is over $21 per bushel today!

43. Hulless Barley Higher Starch Higher Protein Lower Ash Lower Fiber

46. Results: Hulless Versus Hulled Barley Fermentations (No  -Glucanase Added) ValueHulledDoyce Hulless Fermentation Sample7.5 lbs Starch (db) in Grain50%59% %Protein (db) in Grain10.012.8 % B-Glucan (db) in Grain2.93.3 Ethanol Yield (% Theory)103% + 5%105% + 5% Ethanol Conc. in Beer 74 g/l86 g/l Ethanol per lb Barley 116 g/lb137 g/lb Gallons/Bushel (Theoretical) 1.64 gal/bu (test wt. = 48 lb/bu) 2.27 gal/bu (test wt. = 56 lb/bu

47. Worldwide Wheat Grain Contamination –Pesticide Residue Thresholds –Insects –Disease End-use Quality GMO Wheat

48. 2002-2003 Roundup Ready - Hard Red Spring Wheat NAWG claims markets will be lost June 2004 – Monsanto withdraws application Segregation

49. GMO Wheat – Current & Future Roundup Ready –Monsanto –Approved in US but withdrawn due to industry concerns Fusarium Head Blight Resistance –Syngenta –Field trials complete, not submitted for approval –Available 2013 ? Drought? Grain Quality? Nitrogen Efficiency?

54. W. Wilson, NDSU

55. Current Position Sherman Reese, former president of NAWG and an Oregon wheat commissioner "My take is there is not a lot of concern about biotech wheat. The concern is that there is wheat at all," he said.

56. Questions? Is this a “knee-jerk” to current low supply? Will wheat production and quality improve with the additions of GM traits? How will our trading partners react? Does farmer-saved seed make this different from other markets?